Jammer7

This is a good article about Martin's makeup. To even allude to Michael Jordan, as a competitor, is unfair to anyone. When it comes from respected Vanderbilt Head Coach Tim Corbin, I take it as high praise. Who knows Martin better? No coach can teach the intangibles this young man has. We've read a lot about the performance and the tools. All of that is readily available and he has been under immense scrutiny as all top level prospects are. Every wart in their game gets magnified. The kid is a fierce competitor, a great teammate and a winner. I believe we need more of that to solidify the culture we all want in Baltimore. https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-mlb-draft-prospect-austin-martin

Its all good, sir. Eye of the beholder and all. You may end up being correct. Not an exact science. I enjoy tossing ideas back and forth. There is not really any consensus about the first five picks. No clear cut leaders. Maybe Detroit takes Martin, then what? I prefer Lacy, really like his upside, over Hancock. Not really convinced that Torkelson is the guy if he's available. And I'm sure some here will say I'm nuts. I just happened across this from BA. "Martin is more of a plus runner than a true burner..." https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-mlb-draft-top-prospects/

Thank you, sir. My favorite time of year. I have been away from baseball, in general, for a few months. I needed a break from the game and all media associated with it. I was not coaching thanks to COVID, so seemed like a great time to unplug and get away. Great points. I have not seen a "number" associated with Bitsko. I am sure Mike Elias has done the work there. Seems likely it will be fairly high since he reclassified and he was touted to be a potential top 10 by many. His home is not far from Baltimore, but neither is UVA. And he may not be there when we pick if his number isn't high. Veen is legit from what my Scorpion friends tell me. A corner power bat with enough arm for RF and solid athlete. Excellent attitude, hard worker, and plus hit tool. Ginn is quite interesting, despite the TJ surgery. I have never seen him pitch, and only a little video. Have not seen any buzz on his interest in signing or a number. For me, I would think he would sign for second round slot rather than rehab for year and have less leverage next year even though he's a draft eligible sophomore currently. He would need to get healthy and pitch in college in 2022 to get his value back up any further. But then he'd have no leverage then as a senior. And major college programs will be looking at ways to maximize their 11.7 scholarships. So, older players rehabbing is problematic, especially for programs in conferences like the SEC. Walker is interesting, huge guy with huge raw power. But the swing and miss is concerning. Long armed. He is supposed to be very athletic, surprisingly so, apparently. Never seen him. Projections have him at 1B, so, for me, he would have to be a 60 hit tool with the raw power he has. He seems to be a risky profile for where the Orioles are in this time in their cycle. I think they will go best player available. So if it's Lacy, who I really like BTW, I could still see them going with any of the pitchers mentioned here by posters. It may be unlikely, but possible. Elias likes who he likes. I doubt he picks more than 1-2 HS kids this year. I would think he would go with one of Bitsko RHP, Dax Fulton LHP, Carson Montgomery RHP or maybe Alex Santos RHP or Jared Jones RHP/OF at one of the 30-39 picks. The other I expect a college player like Casey Martin SS, or Jordan Westburg SS, Nick Loftin SS or maybe Alika Williams SS. California has several interesting HS OF's as well. Chase Davis, in particular, with an 80 arm. I like Halpin, but I would not spend a second round pick on him. I may not draft him at all this year with only five rounds. No tools stand out, solid line drive hitter. Above average runner, average defender with an erratic arm built for LF. At least that is what I just read about him. His profile seems like the Mangum kid from Miss. State last year. I see a grinder who should go to college. This is an interesting draft for many reasons. Not a dominant player at the top, but it's a deep class. I expect the Orioles to pick Austin Martin. He is just a difference maker, a winner. Wherever he goes, he will get big hits. He barrels the baseball consistently. I will gladly take Lacy as well. He's a bulldog. But an everyday player has an impact 150 games a year. A TOR is important certainly for 33 starts, but his impact is largely tied to one game every fifth day. They say a TOR saves wear/tear on the pen, and sets the tone for the rest of the rotation. And its valid. But I take the player if all else is relatively equal.

That would put him above average, no? Between solid (aka average/50) and plus (60)...which is more or less what I said. He is generally considered above average by everything I have read. Jim Callis also has him going to the Baltimore Orioles in his mocks. He also has had Austin going #1 in the past mocks. So, obviously, Jim Callis likes him. So does every other outlet. Richie Martin is an 80 runner...and...not a factor. Honestly, stolen bases are not a concern of mine in evaluating him. Austin hits, and he does it in big moments. He’s a winning player.

I am well aware of Paul Molitor’s speed, and his stats. He had great instincts as well. There is not an exact comp for Austin, or any player. It was a much different era in the game, obviously. I was referring to his hitting exploits and general defensive abilities through his major league career in comparison to what I imagine Austin will end up. Anyone can poke holes in any comp, which is why I generally hesitate to put them out there. I think it was useful in this conversation to frame what kind of player Austin may become. They are similar in my opinion. Martin has above average speed, maybe 55-60. Molitor was more of a 70 runner as a HS prospect and young MLB player. But I still think Martin could steal more bases than you think. Brian Roberts, for instance, stole a lot of bases with just above average speed. And in the longer term, speed is the least sustainable of the five tools.

I would love Bitsko at #30. Carson Montgomery is a very good young pitcher from an outstanding family. My son played with him a few years ago. Have not seen him in person since, but the video is very good. He will learn how to refine that change up and develop nicely. I also like Casey Martin SS (Arkansas), Jared Jones RHP (Ca. HS), Alex Santos RHP (NY HS), and Dax Fulton LHP (OK HS).

I picked Martin for the many reasons we all know. But Lacy would be just fine with me. He needs development to smooth out some things, but he looks the part of a TOR starter. He is a winner on the mound. Hancock does not miss bats as much as I would like. Not sure if that is something that can be a product of sequencing or other adjustments. I do not love his delivery either. Zac Veen is interesting to me. Talented young OF, and the same HS as Austin Hays. Could be a way for the O’s to save some money for #30 and #39. I want Martin or Lacy, but I can see this scenario if it helps sign a guy like Bitsko. Too much risk for me under the circumstances that surround the Orioles.

Are we reading too much into early season throwing issues? I don’t know, but it is certainly possible. Many players have a bit of soreness early in the season. And I never saw any issues with his throws in previous years from 3B. I prefer him at 2B, or CF, but I would not count him out as a 3B. In regards to the speed not being “elite,” and the thought that he would be just an average defender in CF, many great CF’s were not 70-80 runners. Adam Jones was never that, for instance. From all of the information I have seen, his instincts are excellent. If he is chosen at 1.2, the Orioles will find a place for him to develop. Austin can hit. And he hits top pitching in big moments. I think you find a place for that guy. Paul Molitor and Craig Biggio were 2B who were probably solid, but maybe not elite defenders, but the hit tool was elite. Would you draft that profile at 1.2?

I can think of six NRI's that can realistically make this team: Eric Hanhold Wade Leblanc Tom Milone Pat Valaika Mason Williams Bryan Holaday

And perhaps you were correct that Armstrong has earned a spot in the pen. Maybe Carroll and/or Hanhold as well. So no room I guess for even one Rule 5. Very curious to see what happens now with Kohl Stewart. His status will have an impact on several guys. Does Kohl have an option left? I thought he was out of options.

They seemed to earn raves from camp for their stuff. Maybe they'll try to trade for them. The tweets that Interloper included in another thread make it sound like there is a signing or a trade imminent to add others to the 40 man.

According to Roch, Rule 5 guys Bailey and Rucker are being returned to Astros and Cubs respectively. A little surprised it happened this early.

Yeah, just my opinion as well. The first seven were clearer for me, and then the next four were just possibles. At some point soon, need to start clearing things out to be able to truly evaluate and/or develop those left. You can always call them back from the minor league complex if you need a body or just want to see them again.

I don't disagree that Armstrong has done well so far. It is a credit to him and his hard work this off-season, along with the coaches pointing some things out for him to improve. But Carroll's progress, in particular, if it continues, along with the Rule 5 guys (who have been impressive...supposedly), means that someone has to go. Carroll is 27 yoa and has nothing to prove at AAA, and at some point soon you have to start promoting your young guys to get experience. If you do not see Armstrong as a reliever on the next winning/competitive cycle, why hold someone back to keep Armstrong? Maybe Armstrong is a trade target. DFA and trade for a PTBNL. Other teams are scouting our camp just as we theirs. For me, the rotation is: Cobb, Means, Wojciechowski, Leblanc and Stewart/Milone ( I believe Stewart has an option however) And the pen is: Givens, Harvey, Castro, Bleier, and Fry are penciled in for me. So, Carroll, Hanhold, Armstrong, Bailey, Rucker, Sulser and Tate are battling for the remaining three spots. If they decide to keep Armstrong, I'm good with that, for now. But you have to start promoting the young guys, and flexibility with options are a plus. Especially if you keep one or both Rule 5 guys. Givens is not getting optioned. Harvey has one, I believe. Castro has none, Bleier none, Fry one (I believe). We'll see how it all shakes out, and a lot can happen the next few weeks.

If the player is on the 40 man, he has to be optioned if there is an option available. Reassigned would be for those on the NRI list. Kline has done decent work, but his command is not where it needs to be. I don't think he makes this team, but he can always come up for the day if they want another look this Spring. For me, he's middle inning BP depth in AAA, unless his command improves and his slider becomes consistently sharp. Same for Tanner Scott. The emergence of Cody Carroll and Eric Hanhold have put them ahead of Kline and many others. Armstrong may be on the outside looking in as well.

I think all three of them will eventually end up at Norfolk when the season begins. All those changes can take some time to iron out. They need thousands of reps, and best to get them in AAA. Hess may end up in Bowie at this point if they want him to remain a starter.

I think the cuts are a bit deeper than 10. I would add these seven for sure: Evan Phillips (optioned, although he could be DFA) - Command Tanner Scott (optioned) - Command Branden Kline (reassigned) - Command David Hess (optioned) - If he has any shot, let him build up his command/confidence in AAA Ty Blach (reassigned or released) - Command and stuff are poor Thomas Eschelman (reassigned) - no shot at making this team Taylor Davis (reassigned) - no shot at making this team Lakins could stick around just a bit to see if they can DFA, waive and outright him. Save the option for later, if he is recalled during the season and needs to go back down. Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer are not going to make this team out of Spring Training, so why not send them down sooner than later? Richie Martin can be optioned now, unless you want him around Iglesias as much as possible. He's done well, but Velazquez and Valaika have the inside track at this point to the UT jobs. Richie needs to play everyday at AAA to get his development where he needs to be. DJ Stewart can go down and finish his rehab to begin playing. He will not make this team. For me, he probably would not ever make it in Baltimore and is a trade candidate. He may eventually hit some, but not a regular OF in Baltimore. His competition here is way ahead of him. That's eleven more names. This should get really interesting in a few weeks. I think a trade or two is in the works, even if it is for International Slot Money or for a DSL player or two. Dwight Smith Jr. is a prime candidate for this. He can really hit, but his defense won't cut it. It is hard to believe anyone could be so poor out there with his pedigree.

Yes, agree. He has added 15-20 pounds of muscle according to two reports I have read. The Scorpions people I know rave about this kid's upside and work ethic. Solid athleticism, probably a corner OF. Not sure he can play CF in pro ball, and the arm, to me, is probably average in RF. Goes to the same high school that Austin Hays went to, Spruce Creek.

Just finished reading that article. A bit surprised, at first, that Mountcastle and Hays did not make the list. As I read on, it seems that BA values more contact and plate discipline than these two have. It is hard to understand that 100 prospects are more valuable than a 22 year old kid who dominated AAA last year and was the International League POY. He had a great year offensively and expanded his profile to a corner OF spot, and fell about 20 spots on the list...wow. He supposedly was in the next five after the top 100. Hays may end up the Rookie of the Year, but it is fair that he was not in the top 100. Injuries and plate discipline, along with mediocre results last year in the minors, certainly hurt his case. He was in the "next 98," according to BA. Mountcastle, Hays and Yusniel Diaz were all on the "just-missed" list.

Looks like a solid pick up of a guy that needed a change of scenery. He was rushed up from AA three years ago and has struggled to find a role. Natural LH hitter who started switch hitting as a pro, in 2013. Not saying he’s going to be an all star, but why not pick him up and take a look at him in Spring training? Supposed to have quick twitch athleticism and a plus arm. He was the Jays’ #4 prospect after 2015, according to BA. and was in their top 10 through 2017. I guess it will depend on Richard and the attitude he brings into his new opportunity.

Congratulations @Luke-OH!!! Your passion shines through in all you have done here, and I am sure it will be the same with the Orioles. It isn’t a surprise that you were snapped up by a forward thinking organization. I am pleased that it is the Orioles. Well deserved, sir. You made the OH a better place. Best of luck!

Good stuff! Thanks. I like this move, solid upside with limited risk. I wonder about his health.

What is his 4S spin rate? And, do you see a mechanical adjustment/tweak that can get a better spin rate? Is that something that as a reliever could increase where he could just rear back and let it eat?

I thought Taylor Grover was too, but he’s no bueno.

Very interesting stuff all around. Thanks for all of your hard work! i was wondering what you may think about a comp of Buddy Reed and Cameron Maybin? For me, that may be Reed’s realistic ceiling.