e16bball

From Keith Law: Horvath has plus power with a lot of hard contact, and his swing puts the ball in the air a ton for extra bases, but concerns about his strikeouts and lack of track record have raised some doubts about his hit tool. He’s a solid athlete who plays right for the Tar Heels, with 2024 prospect Vance Honeycutt in center; Horvath spent his first two years at UNC playing third base, with the outfield a much better fit. He does strike out more than most teams like, with no two-strike approach, and some scouts question whether his swing will allow him to keep that rate from spiraling in pro ball. Even with those concerns, he doesn’t whiff that much, taking too many strikes rather than swinging and missing. Horvath did scuffle at the end of the season, only pulling his average back over .300 with a 3 for 5 performance in the Heels’ final game, which isn’t going to assuage any concerns about his hit tool. He offers first-round upside but needs to get into the right system. I would wager that ours is “the right system” he references in closing. #44 prospect overall.

Kiley had him at #68 (right behind Horvath).

This had to be the #1 scouting indicator in their decision to take Jackson Holliday.

I was excited about this kid when we got him from the Twins. Moreso than Nunez and definitely moreso than Cano (solid call). Very young lefty with a sparkling K/BB rate of over 4:1, which certainly catches the eye. It sounded — from Tony’s take on him last year — like maybe the stuff isn’t really special, which puts a bit of a damper on the high hopes. But it’s very good to see him getting back out there.

I guess this sort of raises the interesting question of whether their primary gift is that they are extraordinary at identifying the top talents — or extraordinary at developing young hitting talent. In other words, were Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo destined to be the top hitters from that draft based on their intrinsic talent, which the Orioles accurately identified in a way that other teams could not? Or were their odds of success similar to other similarly situated prospects, and they just had the good fortune to get tossed into the Orioles’ mystical development machine? Would they have had the same success if drafted by another organization? Probably very difficult to say for sure. As a fan, I think the important part is that, for whatever reason, they do seem to be extraordinary at this process with hitters, from start to finish. It has been some fun watching it all unfold. But it would still be interesting to know how it would have worked out in a parallel universe where we took Martin and Kjerstad/Mayo went elsewhere — would Martin be the “special” talent and those guys the forgotten footnotes?

The O’s saw 231 pitches tonight, which appears to be the most pitches they’ve ever seen in a 9-inning game in franchise history.

Wasn’t sure exactly where to post this, other than the game thread, but… The Orioles saw 231 pitches tonight, which appears to be the most pitches they’ve ever seen in a 9-inning game in franchise history.

I understand, good deal. I wasn’t sure what I would find when I went down the “short pitcher” rabbit hole, but it was really pretty remarkable. Every single short starting pitcher over the last 25 years has run out of gas by about 32-33 years old. Except for Bartolo Colon. You can’t make this stuff up.

Happy to. Can you give me some guidance as to what I’m looking for? Do they have an xHeight metric or Years Below Actual Age adjustment that might distinguish them from all the other quality pitchers who were similarly short and didn’t age well?

Gray and Stroman are both very interesting based on their track record — and the fact that the league seems to consistently undervalue them — but I think there’s some serious risk there with them because they’re both so small. Gray is listed at 5’10 and Stroman is listed at 5’7. Among the subset of starters shorter than 6’0 (not a big group), aging has not traditionally been kind. Pedro Martinez is probably the best short pitcher of all time, but he was never *PEDRO* after his age 33 season. Tim Lincecum was dominant at a young age, but he hit the wall (hard) at age 28. Johnny Cueto was a massive albatross for the Giants after a great age 30 season, although he did somehow put together two solid seasons at age 35 and 36 after wandering the wilderness for 4 years. Wandy Rodriguez was pretty much done after a solid age 33 season. Mike Hampton was basically cooked after getting hurt at age 32. Kris Medlen burned out at age 27 after a couple great seasons. Juan Guzman had his final year at age 32, when he started the season with us and then was traded for BJ Ryan. Rheal Cormier and Tom “Flash” Gordon reinvented themselves out of the bullpen, but had their last starts at the age of 29. Travis Wood was an All-Star at age 26, but was only ever effective as a reliever thereafter. Elmer Dessens was moved to the bullpen after a 5+ ERA season at age 32. Mike Leake and Tyler Chatwood were both out of baseball by age 31. And then there’s Bartolo Colon, who remained an effective starter well into his 40s. So the lesson here is that if we’re going to sign one of these guys, he’ll need to immediately put on 100 pounds of bad weight before being allowed to take the mound.

When thinking about the ABs for Cowser and where they come from, one name I haven’t seen yet is O’Hearn — and I think that’s where they will find a lot of his ABs. Cowser has been better against LHPs so far this season, but the book on him has always been that he has a tougher time with southpaws. That was the big knock by most of the pundits coming into the season, including Tony and Keith Law and MLB Pipeline, among others I’m sure. I’m not convinced by 60 PAs this year that his platoon tendencies are fully resolved, and I suspect the Orioles probably feel the same. I think that (plus apparent issues with good breaking stuff) was a big part of the reason they “hesitated” in bringing him up, and I think they’ll try to diminish the degree of difficulty early on by sitting him against tough lefties. That is pretty much where O’Hearn also lives, and I think it’s a little tricky to find the ABs against RHPs for both of them. Mullins and Hays are both pretty much must-plays in the OF based on their seasons so far (and overall careers), and Santander’s bat really needs to be in the lineup as well. Playing Cowser regularly in RF against RHPs leaves 1B and DH for Santander plus Hicks, O’Hearn, and Adley when he’s not catching. Not to mention Urias, if they’re still going to try to work him at 1B sometimes. I think Santander/O’Hearn will probably be the most common 1B/DH configuration against RHPs, but it certainly won’t be the case every day, and that’s really the only scenario where O’Hearn finds himself in the lineup.

Pretty good mix of pitches drawing the Ks, it looks like. https://www.mlb.com/news/grayson-rodriguez-fans-12-at-triple-a-norfolk

Just the way we all pictured it back in April. Yanks versus O’s, dueling for playoff position, Aaron Hicks at the plate with the game on the line.

Obviously Mullins was inexcusable on that play, but when people ask why Mateo keeps getting run at SS, it’s because of plays like that. I’ve watched a lot of Mateo over the past two seasons, and I don’t think that ball gets out of the infield if he’s at short. Not that it’s necessarily a failure by Gunnar — but he just doesn’t have the extraordinary range Mateo does.

And the team OPS is 100 points higher in PAs where they swing at the first pitch. The collective OPS when they put the first pitch in play is 1.064. Frustrating when they make outs on the first pitch, I get it, but because they’re usually so patient, they generally have the opportunity to do serious damage when they hack at the first pitch.

Sort of interesting that he hit that one off former Orioles farmhand/Rule V protectee Jesus Liranzo.

Last 10 starts before tonight: 3.39 ERA, 52 Ks, 13 BBs, 4.17 xFIP, 8-2 team record We all watched tonight. It sucked. Hopefully you’ll sleep it off and realize in the morning that he’s still one of the 5 best options in the organization at present.

The one thing I’ll say, due to the minuscule sample size, is that it appears the difference in performance between the two is very heavily showing up in the batting average (specifically BABIP). There’s obviously a bit more power showing up in the 1B/DH games (.273 ISO compared to .200), but the walk rate is basically identical and the K rate is actually a good bit better in the C games. So it’d be awfully hard to say, based on this at least, that the act of catching is hurting his offensive output on the days he catches — which I think is what the original poster who asked for the numbers was driving at. That said, I think you’re looking a bit more at the overall picture, and you do have to wonder if both Willems/Basallo should be looked at for something resembling a 2016 Evan Gattis role — backup catcher who is a primary DH/1B option the 5 times a week he isn’t behind the dish.

3 games at 1B: 4/13, 1 BB, 1 HR 6 games at DH: 7/20, 4 BBs, 2 HRs Total: .333 / .421 / .606 / 1.027 12 games at C: 7/40, 6 BBs, 1 2B, 2 HRs Total: .175 / .283 / .375 / .658

Maximum Apathy Sports Network?

I agree with this. The question with Westburg was always one of which side of the line would he fall on — the Adley/Gunnar/Grayson side or the Stowers/Ortiz side. Based on his prospect status, it would have been reasonable for him to go either way. The level of production and promotion the team has rolled out today with Westburg’s arrival suggests pretty strongly that they perceive him as being on the higher tier. There was nothing like this when they called up Ortiz or Stowers.

Not sure what qualifies as a “starter” in your book, but there are 18 guys in MLB with at least 175 PAs and an OPS+ of 70 or lower. They represent the following teams: MIA NYY CHW (x2) MIL HOU (x2) OAK (x2) DET (x3) LAA KCR WAS ARI BAL BOS To my eye, very few of those players are also elite defensively at SS with 80 speed. Without a deeper dive, I can’t opine as to how many of them are also presently underperforming their xWOBA by 35 points or so.

Pretty weird concept. You almost never see fans drastically undervalue their team’s players, but that’s where things are with Mateo, it seems. We all get it, people would rather see Ortiz or Westburg (or can’t wait to see Jackson Holliday). But Mateo is 4th on the team in both rWAR and fWAR since the start of 2022. He’s 12th among MLB SS in rWAR and 16th in fWAR during that span. There are several teams for whom he would instantly be the everyday SS — and that’s even factoring in all the dramatic ups and downs, without needing some team to dream on the remaining upside (the “April” version of Mateo). I’m not saying you get anything huge back for him, but Eduardo Escobar is old, expensive, hasn’t hit much this year, and can’t play SS — and he just brought back two top 20 prospects from LAA, including one guy who looks genuinely interesting. There’s no way you couldn’t at least get something similar for Mateo.

What a joke. If you think he’s max steroids Gagne, then no, he’s not as good as you think. First run allowed in a month, and instantly he’s getting bagged on.

The difference is that if you stick with the struggling veteran, you get to keep both the veteran and the rookie in your organization. If you go with the (possibly) struggling rookie, you’ll have to jettison the struggling veteran. I continue to believe that Elias is still viewing things through the lens of the organization as a whole, rather than one with a primary/sole focus on the ML team. I think his goal continues to be to accumulate as much depth — as many potential assets as possible. In other words, I think he frames the choice as (a) keep both Frazier and Westburg, with Frazier playing at the ML level or (b) only keep Westburg and play him at the ML level. Same deal with Mateo/Ortiz, Perez/Vespi, etc.