e16bball

When Mountcastle spits on a couple pretty close fastballs down in the count, you know he’s in range of entering the Team-Carrying Zone.

I think that’s what we’re all hoping for. I know I am. But I also know that this is the third major opportunity (after the 2022 Deadline and this past offseason) they’ve really had to add outside talent to a good team. And the first two times, well, let’s just say their level of aggression in adding major veteran players has not quite matched the desires of the fanbase. Every journalist with access to a keyboard is falling all over themselves to discuss the apparent reality that (a) not many teams are sold on selling and (b) more than half the league is heavily in the market for pitching. If the Cubs pull Stroman off the market, who are the rental SPs you’d be willing to duel with the big boys to land? And for whom do you expect Elias will be similarly willing to jump into those auctions?

Add in McCann, and a decent portion of this board may not make it to the Bronx.

Dear Other MLB GMs, See, everything is fine. We weren’t trying to keep D.L. on the DL — we were just re-calibrating a few things. And now he’s back, stronger than ever, ready to headline any deal. 18.0 K/9 since his return. Speaks for itself. We will not be fielding further questions. Very truly yours, Mike Elias

It’s a very difficult exercise to try to determine who Elias will target because, by and large, we’re thinking he’s shopping for good players — but he’s almost never really targeted a veteran player who has, you know, been very good. Their whole process appears to be based on buying low and fixing these guys up. When you look at the roster and the guys he’s brought in as veteran players, you’ve got Fujinami and his nearly 9 ERA as the most recent example. Hicks gets booed out of the Bronx before joining up. Gibson and Frazier were both coming off career-worst seasons. O’Hearn was genuinely one of the very worst players in MLB over the previous 4 seasons. The Mets paid 1/3 of our total payroll to dump McCann. Mateo had been cast off by the Padres, after being cast off by the A’s. Coulombe got cut by the Twins after missing most of 2022. Perez and Cano were both awful as relievers elsewhere prior to being acquired. Voth was the 2022 Fujinami. Lyles, Aguilar, Odor… As best I can tell, the only players they’ve brought in who were coming off quality MLB seasons were Mychal Givens and Cole Irvin. That’s not much data to give us a sense of what he’ll actually be looking for if he’s finally seeking guys who are currently good.

100% feels like an Elias deal. You can almost sense the salt-and-pepper hair and rakishly unbuttoned dress shirt lurking around this one. Current market value depressed by overall poor year Recent results much improved on every level Ability to balance money vs. prospect return

Is there not a rule about that anymore?

I like the ones Fangraphs has chosen to be on the far right in their default dashboard on the player pages. For hitters, that’s wOBA, xWOBA, and wRC+. Then a section for WAR (offense and defense). For pitchers, that’s ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP. Then a section for WAR. I think when I’m looking to size up a player quickly, that gives me what I want: 1. What is he actually doing stat-wise? What’s the actual performance on the field? You can’t go wrong with wOBA or OPS for hitters, and ERA pretty much sums it up for pitchers. 2. How does that performance compare to the league? I think getting an OPS+ or wRC+ for quick comparison purposes is pretty helpful. 3. What do the important underlying factors say he should be doing stat-wise? Is there a big difference between actual and expected performance? Probably the most controversial, but I like to see whether the advanced data suggests that present performance is better or worse than the models would expect. This helps to shape expectations moving forward. I find xWOBA and xERA to be useful shorthands for this purpose. 4. How does it all come together to constitute “value”? For hitters, this is mostly about combining their batting and fielding exploits. For pitchers, it’s a little more straightforward (performance plus innings), although I prefer the Baseball-Reference version for pitchers, as it’s based on actual performance and not expected.

I agree. We are struggling desperately to find anyone who can consistently get outs, as it seems like these middle relievers are all running very hot and cold. Some days they’ve got their A stuff, some days they get lit up. Pretty much across the board. Perhaps they’ve decided to try to minimize the damage of that variance by sticking with guys longer on the days when they do have things going well. It seems like their preference is to use everyone in one-inning stints — but some nights that means you’ve gotta count on 3-4 different guys to hold it together for an inning until you get to Bautista. That’s been a tall order with the extreme inconsistency in this pen, eventually one of these guys proves to be the weak link in the chain on a particular night. They did it with Coulombe against the Dodgers and now with Baumann yesterday. Wondering if we’ll see more of that.

And when your big money 35-year-olds are no longer able to somehow magically extend their slugging careers like they used to.

Agree with this. They’re not moving Hays when it would require the base starting lineup to include both Hicks/Cowser indefinitely, neither of whom you can really count on at this point for the kind of production we’ll need from a corner OF spot.

I’m not sure it’s necessary to your argument to so drastically understate the quality of Bednar. Maybe you don’t trade him for any reliever, and that’s perfectly reasonable, but Bednar is a top 5ish reliever in the game. He’s not quite Felix, but he’s right up there with guys like Clase, Diaz, Hader, Sewald, etc. He’s definitely not “dime a dozen” or “part time.”

The concerning thing is that despite hitting the wall, he’s at least arguably still the best option out there in the 8th. Which is not say he’s who you want out there on a contending team at this point, but…who’s the better option? They just unironically used Shintaro Fujinami in the 8th inning of a 2-run game in the *biggest series of the year (so far)* They are grasping for straws at this point.

Wasn’t exactly sure where to post this, because it hasn’t been an issue with Fairbanks specifically this year, but I didn’t love the chin music on the McCann bunt. Felt a little aggressive, but he probably didn’t even know for sure that McCann would be squaring around, so it’s not really an issue for me. However, I did notice that Jason Adam has hit 9 batters in 40 innings and Kevin Kelly has hit 7 in 43 innings. Sparing all the math involved, that’s a rate 4 times higher than league average (1.71 HBP per 9 innings!). Maybe they’re just prone to wildness — and I’m sure with Adam it’s partly related to that frisbee slider — but their combined walk rate is lower than league average and neither has uncorked a single wild pitch. We’ve got 5 more high stakes games against these guys. After we lost Markakis to his broken hamate at the hands of the Great Hambino, I feel like I’ve been really wary of fools trying to be aggressive and bust our good hitters inside, and in the process knocking one of our best out for an extended period. I will be hoping we can avoid both of those jokers as much as possible. Especially if the Rays’ collective frustration continues to grow.

I think @Frobby also mentioned Luis De León the other day, he had a solid debut with the Shorebirds after earning a promotion on the back of a pretty strong performance at the Complex — his 11.85 K/9 ranked 8th among guys with 20+ innings, as did his K-BB%.

I agree that it’s hard to know exactly what happened in any isolated scenario, but it’s not like it’s the first time the guy has ever taken to the mound before. He had a BB/9 rate over 4 for his career in Japan. And even just including his relief stints, it’s 5.4 BB/9 in MLB. He’s also hit 5 batters and thrown 5 wild pitches in just 51 innings. Wildness is part of his game.

Agree with both statements, except that I don’t think rWAR cares about K vs. GB. They just care about RA vs. xRA. But as to (1), I like strikeouts better than groundouts too. And as to (2), I think in some ways, saves are a bit like RBIs, because a lot comes down to sequencing. Give up that solo HR when you’re up 3, doesn’t matter, save isn’t blown. Give it up in a one run game, you failed. For example, Britton was pretty bad in an early season game against BOS in 2016: leadoff homer to Betts, single to Pedroia, wild pitch, BB to Bogaerts. Then gets a DP out of Ortiz and a K to get out of it. Good thing he had a 3-run lead, and good thing those results came in that order. Is that effort (which earned him a SV) a better performance than the one where Felix had to eat a BS on the McKenna/Duvall game in a similar early season tilt at Fenway? Is it a talent to time your mistakes well? I know some people who know a lot (Jim Palmer, for one) seem to think that there is a specific knack or strategy for that type of thing. Maybe there is. Anyway, I just found it interesting that Felix is on such a remarkable pace. Just hopeful that he’ll keep it up.

My absolute favorite McFarland memory is he and O’Day slow-motion running in the wigs and wild outfits in the 2014 “We Won’t Stop” video.

Interestingly, by both formulations of WAR, Felix is on pace to surpass Britton’s 2016 — 4.5 to 4.1 per rWAR and 3.8 to 2.5 per fWAR. That’s not including today’s game, where he chalked up yet another high-pressure save. I agree completely with your overall conclusion, though, that it’s extremely unlikely Felix will crack the top 5. I don’t know that any reliever could. Gagne in his best season only finished 6th, and K-Rod was only 8th in his record-setting 62 save season. Rivera never ended up higher than 9th. And as you mentioned, Britton was only 11th with a 0.54 ERA and 47/47 saves.

It’s a ridiculous game, most of the time.

Well gosh, they didn’t do too much to back me up on this one the first time through — they saw 6 pitches, at least?

If you’re ever going to play them, it has to be against lefties — so you’re going to see them together a lot. Plus, given how the defense let Grayson down against LAD, I’m not real upset about Hyde putting the best fielders out there for this one. They probably aren’t going to score a ton of runs against McClanahan anyway, no matter who they plug in at the bottom of the lineup.

Agreed. That’s the key. If the hypothetical was “win the WS and then absolutely suck for the next decade,” that’s definitely a tougher proposition. But in this scenario, we’re winning the WS and in position to keep together a pretty young WS winning core and able to keep our baseball operations group intact and would retain the rest of our pretty deep MIL system as well. It would hurt to lose those young guys, for whom we have very high hopes. But I’ll take the Birds in the hand over the potential of what’s in the bush.

I was born in 1985. In nearly 40 years of fandom, the pinnacle for me has been two soul-crushing (for different reasons) ALCS defeats. And you’re telling me that I can guarantee myself the joy of a WS championship — and all the incredible moments and memories on the way to securing the title — if I trade away five MIL guys that I’ve basically never even seen play? I’ll be able to watch a team with Adley, Gunnar, Cedric, Austin, Tony Taters, Cowser, Westburg, Felix, Grayson, and the rest of the gang hoist the trophy…and I’ll have all of them back next year to do it again, with the cachet of a banner and one of the lowest payrolls in the sport to make us players in FA? Bring me the contract. I’ll sign it in blood.

It’s not really a question of saying Tatis should be ahead of J-Rod, though. There’s no doubt Rodriguez has the preferable contract, and he almost certainly should be ahead of Tatis on that basis. But putting Rodriguez in the top 10 (and presumably Acuna at #1, though we won’t know that until tomorrow) confirms that the author recognizes the value of elite young talent under contract for a very long time, presumably cost-controlled and likely below market price. That same description fits Tatis. He’s 24, and he’s basically top 20 in WAR since the day he debuted (21 in fWAR, 20 in bWAR), despite playing about 75 less games than any other player in the top 25. From the age of 20-24, he’s averaged about 8 WAR per 162 games. Which is wild. And it’s not like the contract is crazy — including this year, it’s 12/324M, which comes out to $27M a year. As we know, that’s paying him for about 3.5 WAR/season. There’s surplus value in that contract, and potentially a ton of surplus value, especially given that he’s been one of the more marketable players in the game to date. We’re talking about a list that has guys like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Lars Nootbaar, and even (though I love him) Cedric Mullins on it. And Fernando Tatis Jr. doesn’t even merit an honorable mention? That’s not really being reasonable.