e16bball

No, this game didn’t really feel like a coin flip. It really felt a lot like we were pounding them most of the night, and they barely edged us at the end thanks to a bad night from our superstar closer — powered by a walk to a bum, a bloop single, a missed fly ball at the wall by our back-up SS, and a dropped 3rd strike by our backup C.

Didn’t he just have another one a week or two ago? Ole Wheels Kjerstad…

Frazier would have needed even more range than that to field that one from where he’s positioned tonight. I’m sure his OAA went down 2 runs on that play, though…

I appreciate the Kevin Brown-ness of this observation.

156 for Trout. If we go back to 2006, and expand to include anyone over 130 wRC+ at age 19, it provides the following names: 203 - - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2018) 190 - - Jason Heyward (2009) 160 - - Jose Tabata (2008) 159 - - Xander Bogaerts (2012) 159 - - Ronald Acuna (2017) 158 - - Justin Upton (2007) 157 - - Nomar Mazara (2014) 156 - - Mike Trout (2011) 152 - - Jesus Montero (2009) 148 - - Ozzie Albies (2016) 147 - - Rougned Odor (2013) 145 - - Andrew McCutchen (2006) 142 - - Isaac Paredes (2018) 133 - - Fernando Tatis Jr. (2018) 133 - - Jarred Kelenic (2019) 131 - - Francisco Lindor (2013)

You almost wonder about biometric data, as well. Track his pulse, BP, respiration, perspiration — whatever they can — to try to get a feel for where his head is at on any given evening. I’m not sure you could effectively monitor or draw conclusions from that in the bullpen, and maybe the mere act of monitoring would make him even more nervous/anxious. But if we’re thinking the problems may be more mental than physical, that would be an interesting route to explore.

I was curious to know how insane that is. His wRC+ thus far is 194. Sure to come down from there, probably substantially. But since 2015, only two kids at age 19 have managed a wRC+ over 150 in 50+ PAs at the AA level. Their names were Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Ronald Acuna, Jr. Putting aside that Matt Holliday missed an obvious chance to name his kid after himself, that’s pretty lofty company for the junior Holliday. Acuna is arguably the best position player in the world, and even in a dreadfully down season with the bat, Little Big Vlad would be a 4ish WAR player if he could play a passable SS.

I was just working up a post where I referred to him as Dr. Fuji and Mr. Nami, so obviously we’re on the right track here… It’s evident when you just look at the inherited runner history. He’s had 12 appearances where he came on with runners on base, and he’s stranded all of them in 8 of those 12. It’s those other 4 games where all the damage came. Twice he came on with the bases loaded and allowed all 3 to score — this might be the situation to avoid, as he’s 0/6 in stranding runners when he enters with the bases loaded. The first time, he took over for A’s reliever Dick Lovelady (technically, he goes by “Richard,” for reasons that are at least somewhat understandable) and promptly walked McCutchen and Reynolds to force in two runs for the Pirates (followed by a sac fly). The second time, he pitched a bit better: 2-run single to Stanton, followed by Ks of Bader and Donaldson. But then Rizzo blooped a single to score the 3rd runner. The two other trouble outings were the mess we saw against TOR and his second ever relief appearance. In that one, he came on with a runner on 2nd and actually performed admirably. The runner was India, and he scored after stealing 3rd and an infield hit — but Fuji pitched well in that inning. The next inning was a trainwreck, though. Walk, walk, walk, wild pitch, run-scoring single. But that was a clean inning. In sum, it’s pretty clear that some days he just doesn’t have it (or quickly loses it). I think you almost need to plan for it — whether that means having another reliever warming up as soon as he goes in or perhaps inserting him with two outs in an inning, so he only needs to get one to escape if he’s floundering. He’s an inferno when he’s got it going, but his meltdowns are worse than pretty much any ML pitcher you’ll ever see.

I dunno, I feel as though the Rays and Jays series at the very least (and maybe the Yanks series as well) were bigger than this one. It’d be cool to roll the champs, don’t get me wrong. But a 3-game set against a non-division opponent just doesn’t have massive October implications for me. I can see why they might feel that they’re the big fish circled on every team’s calendar — but I think for us, we’re in the middle of a period where the intensity level has ratcheted down a bit from it was a couple weeks ago.

It’s probably not even one of the top 3 biggest series we’ve had in the few weeks — but I guess if you see yourself as the center of the universe, you could imagine how it would be.

Wouldn’t it almost have to be Frazier or O’Hearn as the PH first?

Highest Player Winning Percentages .656 - - Cedric Mullins .634 - - Gunnar Henderson .632 - - Jorge Mateo .624 - - Adley Rutschman Our 2023 Mount Rushmore

Love that cheesedick Springer did the same thing a few innings later. Getaway Day is a helluva drug…

He’s the 4th most valuable reliever in MLB this season, per fWAR. He had a rough season last year, but his highest ERA in the decade prior to that was a 3.36. The fastball velocity is back, better than it’s been in years. If he wouldn’t have been the answer, who would have?

In the last month or so, he went 12 consecutive outings (14 IP) without walking a single batter. He’d also successfully stranded all his inherited runners in 8 of the 11 games he entered with men on base coming into today’s game. He had a “clean inning” every time he worked as a starter, and with all due respect to the inimitable Brett Hinchcliffe, he might have been the worst SP in MLB history. I don’t think that’s the issue. Not the whole issue, anyway. I do agree that there’s some sort of mental issue there, though. He obviously puts a ton of pressure on himself, and when things start to go off the rails, he doesn’t appear to have any ability to control the skid. It was pretty evident from about 2-3 pitches in that we were watching a slow-motion trainwreck that he was powerless to avoid.

Rays got the game-winning hit (as well as an extra insurance run) on a 2-run HR from Wander Franco off Cole in the top of the 1st.

That’s a pretty lofty standard. There were 20ish pitchers last season who posted 4+ WAR (by both formulations). I don’t think any of those guys has been pitching like a top 20 SP in baseball this season. And the O’s have 55 games left, so they’ll hit the one-third point around 10pm tonight, so I’m not sure that’s making the difference. Gun to my head, I would probably bet on each of those guys to out-pitch Flaherty — but I think realistically, we could really project a fraction of a win difference between all these guys. Someone will probably get hot and pitch better than that, and someone will probably get cold or hurt and be totally useless. But it’s pretty hard to predict that ahead of time. This has been my hope from the jump. I doubt 2018 Flaherty is ever coming back, but if they could even just keep him at this 3.50ish ERA level that he’s managed for the last dozen starts, that would be a massive upgrade for us. Between an upgraded defense and maybe one or two helpful tweaks to help sustain what’s been working, I think that’s a realistic hope.

One win better over the rest of the regular season? We’re talking about 1/3 of a season…so you think they’re (more or less) 3 wins better over the course of a full year? That’s a pretty wide gulf. I don’t see that in their respective numbers.

Interesting tidbit I noticed while looking at Flaherty’s stats: he’s one of the best RHPs in the modern era at controlling the running game. In well over 600 innings, he’s allowed a total of NINE stolen bases. And there have only been 19 total attempts against him in that whole span (with 10, more than half, obviously getting caught). No one has ever even tried to steal 3rd base off him. In the last 50+ years, only Flaherty and the late Yordano Ventura (of all people) have permitted such infrequent base stealing (one per every 70ish innings) as RHPs. And it’s worth noting that the numbers were even more staggering prior to the last calendar year, when 4 bags have been stolen on him while working with the pop-gun arm of one Andrew Knizner (he of the dreadful 9% CS rate this season). On some level, it’s just a fun note about the new pitcher — but with the new rules, and our franchise catcher’s relative struggles throwing out base stealers, it’s an ability that may prove more vital than it would have been in years gone by.

I’m not a big “second guess the manager” guy, but holy hell…Schneider should be suspended without pay for being so stupid as to walk Hays to get to Gunnar. I don’t care what hand the pitcher uses. Gunnar is getting better against LHPs every single day, and Hays basically doesn’t have a hit since the ASG.

That dates back to the previous series when we played them at OPACY. Jansen came in hitting .197, and Dave Johnson was acting as though that means he probably struggles to get out of bed in the morning without falling out the window. And of course Jansen hits 2 HRs and almost singlehandedly beats us.

“Danny Jansen is hitting .230, he can barely swing a bat without hurting himself and likely everyone in his vicinity, how do you give up all these homers to a guy that inept?” - - - Dave Johnson

Don’t know what fix they have in mind, but I’ve got to guess that it’s going to focus on the 4-seamer somehow. That’s a pitch that was genuinely elite from 2018-2021, but it’s now getting smoked all over the place. Don’t know if they will just try to tweak it, or maybe have him try to go to a 2-seamer and lean more heavily on his breaking stuff (a la Bradish)?

Surely you’re not comparing Drew Gilbert to Jackson Holliday… He’s their #1, but he’d be fighting for a spot on the fringes of our top 10.