e16bball

Much worse decision. But one worked and one didn’t, so I suppose that dictates which was a stupid idea and which was “being aggressive and making your own breaks”…

The last time Baltimore was up 7-0 on New York this fast, it was Super Bowl XXXV.

Feels like a miss on Montgomery/Stratton. Unless the Cards absolutely loved the kid Saggese, I think we should easily have been able to beat any package where an IF prospect appears to be the biggest draw.

I still think Steven Matz is going to be in the mix for them. 4 starts since returning to the rotation with a 2.18 ERA and 25 Ks vs 5 BBs in 21 innings (2.85 FIP). Pitched very well for Toronto a couple years ago, so it’s not like he can’t handle the AL East gauntlet. If you can’t land a consistently good arm, maybe a hot hand is the next best thing?

These being the same Rangers who shelled out $80M in new contracts, just for this season, to SPs last offseason. For that $80M, they basically got Nate Eovaldi and…a dire need to trade for Max Scherzer plus another SP apparently.

Think we’re pretty heavily overselling Miller and Woo by continuing to use the term “TOR potential” in describing them.

I’ve said a lot this season, until you’re watching every day — which, I’ll admit, I couldn’t bring myself to do during the lean years — you don’t get a real sense of what a good teammate Anthony Santander is and how much positive energy he brings to the team on a nightly basis. Such a crucial part of what they have going on.

WALK OFF TATER

Reading the recent discussion, I find myself wondering how much the populace would riot if we traded Urias to the Marlins for MiL pitching? Even if Max Meyer and the two kids they just drafted aren’t on the table, they do have two lefties named Dax Fulton and Jake Eder who are well-regarded young pitchers. Fulton has some Povich vibes as a big thin lefty with a great K rate but unimpressive results at AA (though he’s just 21 still). Eder is just back off Tommy John, but he was annihilating AA at 22 years old before he got hurt. I feel like this is the sort of move that Elias/Sig would love to make right now — but they probably can’t, just for the sake of the optics.

This is the change I would suggest also. We can do one of Ortiz/Westburg and also pluck off a few pretty solid B level prospects for you as well. But we’re not doing two top 50ish prospects PLUS more for a guy in the midst of a down season. I would love to be the one to land Cease if they make him available — but I’m afraid, as the article suggests, that the ChiSox will only pull the trigger if they get a very lopsided offer.

Civale is fine, but it’s a little odd that he’s so satisfactory to a board that has been ardently seeking an *ace*, not just another mid-rotation guy. On some level, I get it, because at least Civale is under team control for a couple more years — which makes him a more desirable target than a mid-rotation rental, for sure. I’d probably rather do that package for Civale than Jordan Montgomery, for example, for that reason. However, I have more than a little concern that we’d be buying at the very apex of value on a guy who’s put up 71 very successful innings this year — but is outpitching all his metrics by over a run and has never been anything more than JAG before this season. It’s a nice shiny ERA, but is there any reason to think it continues to be anything like that? Everything in his profile says you’re acquiring a guy who’s likely to be a high 3s to low 4s ERA pitcher moving forward.

I don’t “blame” him. I’m just saying his disappointment was misplaced — the FO’s course proved to be a very successful one. They did already have enough to win that season, and they kept their talent stockpile intact to continue winning for years to come. As players (and coaches/managers) often are, he was more invested in trying to win right now than in the team’s future. Which is natural. But it appears that their FO struck a pretty ideal balance between “win now” and “keep winning later,” so does anyone really care that Dallas Keuchel was disappointed on August 1, 2017? I’m assuming he was singing a very different tune on November 1, 2017.

Yeah, but then they won the World Series that year — and went to 3 more, with another championship, over the next 5 seasons. So maybe there’s a reason why the FO doesn’t ask the players what they think…?

What would you consider a comparable Orioles package? Something like Aneudis Mordan and Thomas Sosa?

Looks like they got…a couple tasty lottery tickets, but nothing that will help within the next 3-4 years at least. IF Marco Vargas C Ronald Hernandez Two young kids who are presently destroying the Complex league with extreme plate discipline moreso than power. Vargas just turned 18 and Fangraphs seems to be highest on him (40+ FV, 9th among Marlins prospects). Hernandez is almost 20, and for that reason seems to be the (nearly) consensus lower-ranked prospect. MLB Pipeline has them at #18 (Vargas) and #21 (Hernandez) in a middling Marlins system, although that does feel low on Vargas for me, given his age and outstanding play at the Complex.

Darwin-san*

If Norby is an OF, then I think we have to try to dump him immediately, while someone out there might still consider him a 2B. There’s not much value in a 23-year-old corner OF with a league-average bat at AAA.

I think the one major mistake Elias has made, both last offseason and at this trade deadline, is in hesitating. I think (though it’s absolutely total speculation on my part) that his biggest regret in the offseason was letting the Rays jump on Eflin right out of the gate. I suspect he felt like he could let that opportunity go because there would be other comparable options developing later in the offseason — but there just weren’t many good deals to be had after that, as everyone wanted pitching and there just weren’t enough quality pitchers to be had. I’m afraid that’s where things are headed at this deadline. They missed the boat on Chapman, and that’s one I think they’ll regret. Texas is a likely postseason competitor, and they landed the exact type of player we need for an absolute song. They got out ahead of the deadline frenzy, and they’ll reap some rewards for that, as I suspect we’ll end up paying at least as much (and perhaps appreciably more) for a lesser reliever. There are only a handful of sure sellers, and everyone + their brother is chasing the pitching that’s out there. I think that constitutes “misjudging the market,” though only in a general sense. If the supply exceeds the demand, waiting out the market can be an effective strategy. But when the reverse is true — and at this point, it seems to be exceedingly true — you’re going to end up forced to choose between overpaying and walking away.

I too am interested in Snell and/or Hader, but I don’t know that we match up very well with the Padres. They rather famously have a pretty expensive left side of the infield, locked in long-term, and Ha-Seong Kim has been tremendous at 2B. And at present they have Soto and Tatis playing corner OF spots, although I suppose they could start preparing for life after Soto. In terms of bats, you’d assume they’ll be looking for maybe CF types and heavy hitters for 1B/DH spots. That’s not the strength of our upper minors, because I can’t imagine we’d move Kjerstad or Mayo for rentals. Obviously they’d also want pitching, but we don’t have a ton there either. @Greg Pappas mentioned Povich and Fabian, and I think they’d be two names right in the thick of this negotiation. I’m not sure that’s enough to get across the finish line, though, and I’m not really sure what else we’d add that they’d be enticed by.

Not a ton of high-end targets, but among teams that are definitely going to sell, there are a lot of decent middle relief options with CHW, STL, and COL. I’ve mentioned Chris Stratton (STL) before, and the one that really intrigues me is LHP Aaron Bummer (CHW). His ERA is absolutely awful this year (6.82), but literally everything else says this guy is a high-end reliever. From 2019-2022, his combined ERA was 2.59, with a 3.12 FIP. And although the results have been miserable this season, all the peripherals say he’s still really good. His xERA is 2.92, his FIP is 2.35, and his xFIP is 3.20. The 3rd largest gap between ERA and FIP in the last 15+ years. He has an extremely high BABIP (.355) and a shockingly, impossibly low strand rate (47.1%). That’s the second lowest strand rate in the last 15 years (behind 2015 Mike Morin’s 44.4%). His career average in that area was around 74% coming into the season, so it’s not like the guy is just incapable of pitching with men on base. It seems crazy to propose trading for a guy with an ERA of nearly 7, but I think the guy might actually be an excellent pitcher with an unbelievably bad run of results this year. If anyone has the stones to trade for a guy with a stat line that bad in a pennant race, it might be Mike Elias. Could he be a throw-in as part of a Cease deal?

Weird as it sounds, this was a real consideration for me, as he’s also obviously close with Cowser. The clubhouse chemistry with this group is so palpable that if keeping Westburg would be substantially more conducive to maintaining that *good vibe* than keeping Ortiz, that honestly might change my answer to the question.

For me, I think the one that stands out is Westburg. I think he looks like a good, solid player — good approach, we know he has pop, defense looks better than I expected, seems like a gamer, all that good stuff. But at the end of the day, if we’re going to bring back someone who really makes a difference, I think we’re going to have to dip into the higher end of our prospect pool. I don’t want to move Mayo or Kjerstad because they have rare power that I think we’ll need to supplement the other guys for whom OBP is more the carrying offensive skill — which I think will be especially necessary if and when Santander moves on. That leaves Ortiz, Cowser, and Westburg. And given where we stand in the infield — with two spots basically earmarked for Henderson and Holliday long-term — I think it comes down to either Ortiz or Westburg. That decision likely gets made by the imaginary trade partner (I.e., which one they prefer), but if left to my druthers, I think I lean towards keeping Ortiz. Based on their MiL track records, I think it’s close to a coin flip as to which of them ends up the better hitter. But from all reports, I know with great confidence that Ortiz will have more defensive value (and versatility), so that certainty gives him the edge for me. I certainly don’t want to trade Westburg. But if we’re fishing for good young controllable SPs like Cease or *insert Mariners SP* or *insert Marlins SP*, I don’t think Stowers/Norby/Prieto is going to cut it.

Agree with you here. The other guys get paid too — one of them is hitting .300 and one of them is a 2x MVP. Sometimes good hitters beat solid pitching…the classic “tip your cap” scenario. Especially when we gave them an extra out. Also, it’s a little reminder of how special (and how valuable) Felix’s bat-missing ability is. No contact is almost always better than even weak contact. There’s no errors, infield hits, or seeing-eye singles when the batter has to walk back to the dugout. It’s been a massive gift to have a guy who thus far has been able to plow through hitters like this.

Pretty big Mateo fan, so I wish this wasn’t true…but it is. For weeks (coming up on months), I’ve also held the belief espoused in the post you quoted: that Mateo has the higher upside of the two, and that in any event, his elite skills (speed and defense) could find a meaningful role in a reserve role. But it’s just not going to happen. The defense just isn’t there when he’s sitting for long spells. He hasn’t just been “not elite” with the glove over the last few weeks, he’s been downright rough out there. I don’t know him personally, but it seems like he’s a guy that thrives on rhythm and confidence — and he has neither when he plays a couple times a week and basically knows he’s the last man on the roster. Still like the guy. I’ll be hoping we send him somewhere like COL or MIA and he figures out and becomes an All-Star. But at this point, unless Gunnar is out longer term, we’ve got to trade him for whatever we can get and let Ortiz come up.

Gibson threw that many on the 4th of July.