backwardsk
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Posts posted by backwardsk
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6 minutes ago, atomic said:
All the stocks I sold are still higher than my original purchase price. They aren't cheap yet. I sold out half of my stock in 2019 because they got too high. It is stupid to own stocks that are going to be worth less than their current price. I have done well in the market being conservative. If you want to take risks and have a bunch of overvalued stocks than you are going to lose money.
I have an investing book called the Intelligent Investor that says to never buy stocks at over 15 P/E even currently they are at 24 P/E. With ultra low interest rates you could justify maybe a 20 P/E but the market is overpriced even without the Coronavirus and even with the crash.
Why did you choose to miss the 20% run up to mid-February 2020? You seem to have a good handle when the market is going to peak and when to buy back in, I don’t understand why you sold off in 2019 as the market was going up into 2020.
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2 minutes ago, atomic said:
If there are less than 15k cases in two weeks and they are testing everyone that would be yeah than it would be a hype. There are probably over 15k cases in US right now. They haven't even tested the 70 workers at that nursing home that have shown symptoms.
We are both saying that testing is inadequate to date. If there currently 15k cases here already, like you pose, and if they can roll out several hundred tests over the next two weeks, then your expectation is that there will be over a quarter million cases reported.
Also, if there are 15k cases and 22 deaths, then doesn’t that put the expected death rate well under 3.5%?
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24 minutes ago, atomic said:
Last Monday there were 89 confirmed cases of Coronavirus in US. Today there are 550. In Italy two weeks ago 20 cases. Now 7500. In Korea and China they did a great job of containment. In Western countries a terrible job.
Are they conducting more, less or the same number of tests from last week to this week? Of course the number are going to go up. That is expected. There are still people who are showing symptoms and aren’t being tested because they don’t fit into the previously returned from China number. So how can you view any of these confirmed cases as complete information? I’m asking you if you are getting this “it doubles every three days” from a reliable expert or you are inferring that from this lack of good data.
And just because people disagree with your proclamations that the baseball season will be cancelled and that 72M Americans will contract it by May unless there is a cure (there won’t be), that doesn’t mean people aren’t taking it seriously.
You have stated that you have read every article. You’ve also said that it doubles every three days and that the infected rate in the States will be 70%. I want to see those in an article.
If more tests are rolled out over the next couple of weeks and the confirmed cases are less than 15k (U.S) will you still hold onto your assumption that this virus will double every three days?
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27 minutes ago, atomic said:
It doubles every 3 days. It doesn't go to 10 million in 2 weeks. If you start with 1 case it takes a while to get to 50,000 cases. People don't seem to grasp exponential grow curves. That is why we have someone in this thread saying the flu kills 20k people a year. Yeah this has just started. And politicans are still having rallies, sports teams are still playing, people are still going on cruises. No one is wearing masks. We don't see people spraying down streets and sidewalks with disinfectant like they have been doing in China and Korea. Doctors and nurses are seeing patients with just simple masks. Look at what gear the doctors in China were wearing.
Please cite that fact. I’d love to see that.
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1 minute ago, atomic said:
They welded people into their apartment buildings Leaving only slots for food. They have shut down businesses for over 2 months. Everything is shut down.
They have draconian policies that halted the spread. We aren't even testing people here. Much less keeping infected people from leaving by force.
.7 is the infection rate. No one is immune so 70 percent seems correct.
Right. But that doesn’t address that they weren’t able to do that on day 1. Symptoms may not show for two weeks. There was some period of time from when the virus was identified to when they isolation occurred. There’s, what, 15M people in Wuhan province. The numbers of infected seem very, very low if the infection rate is 70%. You’ve read every article, can you point to one that addresses this?
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13 minutes ago, atomic said:
Yeah I would not listen to CDC. .7 x .035 X 300 million = 7.3 Million. is what you are looking at from Coronavirus. So yeah your 20,000 is a good perspective. Also I am not sure why everyone is trying to minimize it including the CDC. I am glad I sold all my stocks weeks ago. We shall see what happens. today but it isn't going to be good.
Riots in Italiian Prisons already with prisoners escaping.
What is the .7 in this equation?
Also, why isn’t the infected rates higher in Wuhan? I know they implemented draconian policies to help spread the disease which helped prevent further spread, but before they were put into practice millions would have potentially come in contact. It is very dense and they didn’t know what they were dealing with for two weeks to a month.
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4 hours ago, Wish said:
There's no way Ravens get a 1st for a soon to be 27 year old who only caught 30 passes last year. Be happy for a 2nd or probably 3rd. Raven's wasted a 1st on Hurst but that's a sunk cost, plus ended up with a top 3 TE anyways.
Kelce, Kittle, Ertz. Who are you dropping?
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24 year old gets shot and killed in my town by 52 year old neighbor. Long standing feud about loud music and dog poop. 52 year old is an ex cop who killed two other people on duty about 20 years ago.
Taking a life because of music and dog poop.
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WrestleMania is a month away in Tampa, where a cited case is not all that far away. Many international fans attend. Let’s see what they do.
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Many potential changes at QB around the league should make this off-season fun to follow.
Chargers, maybe?
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Will they win 57 games this season? Asking for a friend. The current line is 56.5.
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Not a transaction, but news I saw across my feed today.
https://sports.yahoo.com/ravens-te-hayden-hurst-attempted-suicide-south-carolina-234738421.html
^^^ four years ago.
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10 hours ago, atomic said:
Most everyone on the Orioles was. Canseco said it was 80 percent and he was the one guy I would believe.
To be fair, if Canseco saw a 25 man roster and knew 14 guys were doping, do you think he could do the math or just say it’s 80%?
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9 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:
I lived in Atlanta then and now. We swept the Braves in Atlanta. Two great teams. Of course, Florida swept us that year also. I agree about 1996. That was rough, but the Yankees beat us 9 out of 9 times in our own park. They owned us. 1997 was our year. Hard to believe we have zero ALCS wins since Game 5 of that series. I am not sure that any franchise in baseball other than us has 0 LCS wins over the last 22 seasons.
Pirates
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I could see Patrick Corbin with an outside chance of getting to 40.
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1 hour ago, Pickles said:
I was kind of being facetious. Duquette did some good things here, and brought an urgency that was necessary. He was also excellent at dumpster diving and getting the most out of the backend of the roster.
However, I think as late as 2016- our last playoff year- 7 out of 9 regulars had been acquired by Andy MacPhail.
Six of nine. And as previously mentioned, Jones was extended by Duquette or he would have been gone.
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Was Miguel Gonzalez pre-Duquette? Getting big innings from him and Chen at their cost was a huge success. EDIT: Duh, you mentioned him and I missed it.
You mentioned McLouth, but it seemed like he had so many minor moves that year that worked out. For example, he picked up Bill (?) Hall (used to play in Milwaukee) and he hit a key homerun in his first game.
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Always knew that 2/5 is his birthday. Third grade backwardsk did a book report on him for black history month, and always remembered that fact.
Also have the 57(?) Topps baseball card that has the reverse negative.
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10 hours ago, Frobby said:
This got me to thinking, who started the most games for the Orioles in the previous decade? And the answer of course, is Sidney Ponson (160), followed closely by Daniel Cabrera (146).
What a dark, dark decade.
I would have guessed Rodrigo without looking it up, but maybe he crossed over into the 2010s.
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I’d like to see Betts get a chance to play center.
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So is Rosenthall wrong about Pederson?
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Donnie Hart to the A’s on a milb deal.
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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Ouch no Williams. Docking the poor guy due to military service?
Williams better than Bonds? Not sure about that.
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15 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:
Catcher: Bench
1st base: Jimmie Foxx
2nd base: Rogers Hornsby
Shortstop: Honus Wagner
3rd base: Mike Schmidt
OF: Bonds, Ruth, Aaron
DH: Edgar Martinez
SP: Roger Clemens
RP: Mariano Rivera
I’d go with a lot of this. I’d swap Mays for Aaron. Though mostly an OFer, I’ll go with Musial at first, just to get him in there. Feller for Clemens.
MLB (Orioles) suspended indefinitely
in MLB
Posted
The last part is inexcusable.
Hope your mom just has a cold and recovers quickly.