backwardsk
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Posts posted by backwardsk
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On 11/13/2023 at 6:31 PM, Roll Tide said:
10 fumbles and 5 interceptions
Should have given $150M to Carr instead.
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Don’t recall many people saying that Herbert can’t win in the postseason before he got his extension.
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1 hour ago, wildcard said:
He has 5 pitches. 93m 4 steamer. The cutter and sinker got hit in 2023 but were good in 2022. That is a starter mix.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nick-martinez-607259?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
Yet SD gave 15 starts to Rich Hill (50 ERA+) and Ryan Weathers (66 ERA+) instead of giving Martinez more starts.
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8 minutes ago, wildcard said:
You make great points here. I was looking at the splits and in 2023 he made 9 starts with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.078 WHIP in 42.2 innings IP as a starter. He started 4 games at the beginning of the season and then they put him in the pen. He went 7 innings in two of those starts. He started a couple of time in August and the last 3 starts at the end of the season. He was not stretched out for any of those starts so he went 3 innings.
He pitched 149 inning is 23 games in Japan in 2021. That is more than 6 innings a start.
Do I like that he has not gone 5 or more innings in his starts? No. Do I like committing 20m to him? No. Do I like spending twice that on 3 years of these other starters. No
I don't that the insight that the O's will have on his ability to make 15 good starts in the majors. It's does not look like he has had the chance. He has mainly been a reliever the last two years. But he has pitch over 100 inning is 2022 and 2023.
He will be 33 for most of 2024.
You have give me something to think about. Thanks for the insightful post.
To me, he resembles Trevor Williams who signed with the Nationals. A guy who can give you length and pitch fairly well in the bullpen. Can make a start from time to time. But gets totally exposed when deployed as a full time starter. He would be below Plan E for me. Especially if that’s the only move to address the rotation.
To add, I would not be in favor for this team to target their three guys you listed earlier on three year deals either. I just believe that the rotation should and can be improved with other realistic options.
My first option would be to go after Gray on a short term, high dollar deal (ex 2/54-56) and see where that gets you. He talked about retiring after this season. Talk is talk. Trevor Bauer said he would only go year to year until he signed a big deal with LAD. But if those thoughts are in his mind, and he wants to chase a ring, then Baltimore is as good as any place to do that. If the market expects 3/69 for him and a guy like Gibson can get 1/12, this could be appealing to him.
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3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Schoenfeld is great but that’s an awful trade offer and I wouldn’t touch that Hicks contract.
If that’s the expectation for Gray, I’d offer a two year with a higher AAV (2/54-56) and see if that interests him.
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18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:
Thought exercise, is giving Grayson and Bradish for Kirby and Gilbert something you would easily immediately do?
In a hypothetical, yeah, I’d rather have the Seattle duo over the next four years.
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@wildcard Do you know how many starts Martinez has made and completed five innings since 2017? 12 total. 8 in 2022 and 4 last year. And you want to give him $22M and pencil him in for 16 starts?
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1 minute ago, wildcard said:
Severino, Montas and Turnball are all coming off injuries. Do you have any information that says they will have healthy seasons next year?
Gray's market seems white hot. We saw what happen to the O's in that kind of market last year.
Cease and Bieber is going to cost 6 years of prospects that could help the O's. I really don't see much of a surplus in prospects at this point.
I don't have a feel for what the Mariners would want. But I bet it will not be cheap.
You have Means and Rodriguez pencilled in for 30+ starts. What information do you have that says they stay healthy? And why bank on health for a guy (Martinez) who missed four seasons from 2018-2021? He couldn’t make more than 40 pitches in an appearance for the last three months of 2022.
Those three guys all have injury concerns, yes. But the first two are expected to be on one year deals. I’d rather commit $10-$15M on those guys than $22M on a 34 year old Martinez.
If they strike out on Gray and trades this offseason. I’d like to see them go this route, assess at the deadline, and use their ammo then.
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17 minutes ago, wildcard said:
What do you have in mind?
Be competitive in the Sonny Gray market
Use position players to trade for the Mariners excess SP
Cease
Beiber
Guys likely to sign 1 year deals with higher upside than Nick Martinez like Severino and Montas.
Spencer Turnball.
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2 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Do you feel good about giving 3 years to Giolito or 5'9" Stroman at 33 or Wacha or Lugo. There is risk in giving 3 year and 30m+ to pitchers. Kind of locks the manager in to starting them even if they are in decline.
Are those the only options to improve the staff?
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I used a “we thought he was gonna be an Oriole” for Hou/Chi 8%
A former O 3B for Was/Phi 1%
Former O OF (played with Brady and Devereaux I believe) for LAD/Hou 2%
HOF from Big Red Machine for Hou/Phi (Moose’s answer) 5%
Well traveled P for Was/Cubs - mostly known for being an A or Dback. 0.3%
WS hero for Nats/LAD 4%
Old timers HOFers for Cubs and Dodgers runs 2% and 1%
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They would know best if they have a chance to extend him or not. If they believe they can’t, then it makes some sense. The problem is they are trying to compete now. Bichette is not Soto, but he still has two seasons left. Chicago has a deep farm system with six top 100 players in Pipeline. If I was Toronto, I’d set the price steep. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Shaw, and two more top 100. If Crow-Armstrong is off the table, then the price is the other five top 100.
If that’s too steep for the Cubs, that’s fine. Go compete the next two seasons with Bichette in his 26-27 age seasons.
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Uggh. 8/9 127. I read the last column as RBI instead of runs. Had a good chance at a really good score.
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Do the teams get a pot of money and then decide how many full shares to hand out which determines the amount per share? Is that how it works?
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61. Only used two Orioles. Sub 1% on Yankees/cleveland (best known as a Cubs power pitcher) and Yankees GG (known more for his hit tool and playing for Boston)
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2 hours ago, SteveA said:
It would have been possible to complete all 9 squares today using guys who played for the Orioles. I tried, but failed. It is still my ultimate goal. Some day....
Obviously the Oriole column would have all Orioles in it.
For the .300 hitters you could go Frank for the Reds, Javy Lopez for the Braves, and Will Clark for the Giants.
For the first round draft pick it gets tough... I didn't know Ross Grimsley was a first round pick. He could fill the Reds square, Jeffrey Hammonds the Giant square, and Earl Williams the Braves square.
I wasn’t sure if the first round pick had to be from that team. For example, would Gausman have counted for Cincinnati?
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We know that the Braves were in on him. Nola’s team used that to bid Philly up.
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51.
Low was Al Dark at .008 and high was Lincecum at 13.
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Phillies MO is to give longer contracts with smaller AAV (Harper, Turner). But I guess they forgot to lower the AAV on this one.
Hope other teams don’t bail them out by taking on the Castellanos contract. Similar to the Yankees/Stanton situation.
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10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
2%
I went with Pedro Guerrero. That guy is bananas.
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17 minutes ago, Just Regular said:
Its a good day when Eddie Murray for ~1% can be deployed.
Which square? He’d fit four.
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29 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
What was your Dodgers born out of the US score? I was going to use him, but went in another direction and got 3.
44 overall.
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54 minutes ago, LookinUp said:
I don't think the concept is really that hard to understand. Right now, Holliday isn't guaranteed any MLB salary. Yes, he's made his $8 million, but there's no more guarantees related to injury or poor performance.
So let's say he's good and goes through his 6 years of service time. How much is that? $50-60 million? I don't know the number, but let's assume that's the case. So the O's approach him with 9 years and $135 million guaranteed. He gets guarantees for all of those 6 years plus another $25 million/year for 3 more years regardless of injury or poor performance. Oh, and he gets to be a free agent at 28 years old.
You wouldn't do that? Seems like a no brainer to me. Just have to work out the specific numbers.
What do you think AAVs for the best players are going to be in six years from now? When you look back at Scherzer got seven years ago to what Judge got last year, it’s not inconceivable to expect high end salaries to be 50-60M/year when he hits FA. Could be even higher than that with Steve Cohen out there. So for that guarantee, he’s forgoing a potential $75-$100M. That’s a ton to give up. He has no external pressures to extend early and provide for his family because he comes from generational wealth. He has all the leverage.
I understand the concept of guaranteeing money early and getting a couple/few years of free agency as the trade off. But to compare this to Acuna (who signed for $100k and, from my knowledge, doesn’t come from generational wealth) is not comparing apples to apples, imo.
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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:
70 hit tool. 80 family make-up tool. Good up the middle defense. Already pretty strong. OBP machine. Extremely high floor. Very young.
I'd offer him an extension before opening day and then service time isn't an issue. Just promote him immediately and hope he grows and wins ROY, even if that's unlikely.
I seriously hope the O's keep all of our top 3 and build around them. That would be 5 studs. You can fill a lineup around that.
If you were Holliday, how eager would you be to give up/delay your freedom of movement with free agency? Six, seven years is a long time. It’s hard to tell what position the organization will be then. He’s not hurting for money. He can’t drink legally and he’s already earned over $8M. His dad made around $160M.
I think it’s going to be very difficult to sign him long term unless they are willing to give him premium FA AAV in his pre Arb years.
Ravens General Talk
in Ravens
Posted
There is some talk in Washington that he is a target for HC. They hired Shen and may end up with a Cunningham/MacDonald GM/HC tandem.