makoman

Francoeur is an interesting comp. They played at the same level at the same age a lot (but 12 years apart, no clue how the leagues actually compare) and actually had similar production. Age 19, A ball: Franco: 30 BB in 567 PAs (5.3%). 769 OPS. Mount: 25 BB in 489 PAs (5.1%). 745 OPS. Age 20, A+: Franco: 22 BB in 367 PAs (6.0%). 852 OPS. Mount: 14 BB in 379 PAs (3.7%). 885 OPS. Age 20, AA: Franco: 0 BB in 76 PAs (0%). 539 OPS. Mount: 3 BB in 159 PAs (1.9%). 605 OPS. Age 21, AA: Franco: 21 BB in 367 PAs (5.7%). 808 OPS. Plus 11 BB in 274 PAs (4.0%) w/ 884 OPS at MLB Mount: 26 BB in 426 PAs (6.1%). 806 OPS. Age 22: Franco (MLB): 23 BB in 686 PAs (3.3%). 742 OPS. Mount (AAA): 11 BB in 318 PAs (3.5%). 846 OPS. Francoeur had a 12 year career but wasn't very valuable. Three years over 3.0 bWAR, but just 6.7 career (being -4.3 over his last 5 years didn't help that).

Abreu was a player selection though. Mancini has played 4 games or less against half the AL. Players on other teams have barely even seen him play, it helps to be a known quantity here. Abreu IS a known quantity and has defensible enough traditional stats with 19 HR and 60 RBIs. Are the other players going to seriously analyze stats and figure out who really deserves it, or are they going to say “Abreu? Yeah he’s been good, how’s he doing this year? 19 homers? Sounds good.”

He was. This breaks down how each player was selected. Blame the players for Mancini’s exclusion. https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-all-star-game-rosters ETA: Looks like MLB has 6 picks. The O’s, Jays, Mariners, Tigers, Royals all needed a player. And Minor leads the league in WAR.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2019-orioles-are-one-of-the-most-anonymous-teams-in-mlb-history/

He’d have to allow 14 ER in 3 innings to go over 4.

Smith is on pace for about 0.2 WAR. That’s not average.

No I know. Wasn’t really meaning to compare them (even though I did) as much as say what he’s doing isn’t super special in this new Norfolk environment. Age def matters though.

His wRC+ is only 107 this year. Yeah I’d like to see better plate discipline. By contrast, Stewart and Sisco were 157 and 133 in AAA this year.

Any appeal to the authority of a HOFer can simply be countered by “Joe Morgan.”

It appears that many of the highly ranked guys from last year did not play in the DSL last year. They started in the Arizona Fall League at the earliest, and many joined DSL teams this year. Names I looked at were the top 11 here that actually signed during the last season http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=int

Yeah, someone explain to me. Let’s say he doesn’t sign, goes back and has a great year, shows he’s like a top 70 talent, that’s slot of around a million. That’s best case for him I’d say. What does that get him as a senior with no leverage? What’s the precedent for a 2nd round senior sign? What’s the rule if he doesn’t sign, he sits out a year? Would anyone do that at his age?

Even if we go to 105%, if Watson gets slot then we only have just over 1M left to spend. I think it would be crazy to expect Watson plus all 4. It's sounding like we should be thrilled if we get any of them.

College sports are like a religion to some people, and apparently he’d get to play with his brother. I can see someone valuing such things seemingly irrationally highly. Me I’d take the money.

Yeah, I could be misremembering, but if I recall, the Gausman year he was the last to sign and we just gave him full slot. It's easier to go below slot if your last guy doesn't know what's left. You probably don't want to be known as the org that always caves at the end and gives everything left to the #1 guy.

If it was purely a money problem, wouldn't Elias have declined to sign Karns ($800k) or traded Villar ($4.825M) or Bundy ($2.8M) or Givens ($2.15M) or even the competitive balance pick ($884k) to get some cash if he thought there were worthy players out there to sign? I know you saw the article saying there is no plan to trade any slots this upcoming period. Let's hope they spend 85% or more.

1.102 OPS Adley who? ?

Jackson is about 26 and has a 87 wRC+ in AAA. Keon Broxton at 26 three years ago had a wRC+ of 142 in AAA and 111 in the majors. There’s no reason to think Jackson would make anybody’s 40 man this winter.

He's realllly close to passing Davis at least. 162/245/301/546 176/243/296/539 From the offseason scouting reports I was hoping his D would be better. If he can grow into a 650 OPS that might be adequate with plus D...with average or worse D it's just not going to work out.

D-II, I never even heard of any of the teams he played so inferior competition, but great production. Seems like he's fast with good defense. 6-2 180 is pretty light. Maybe he can put on some weight.

6.55 ERA but 80 Ks in 66 innings. Maybe they think they can tweak something. Of course it's the 13th round.

The one annoying part is that list is all position players. John Means has been a great surprise...other than that, at least a lot of the minor league guys have taken steps forward this year.

Agree, he's got a 107 OPS+ with a 302 OBP, and below average defense at a position low on the def spectrum. Definitely successful, especially for a waiver claim, and I'm happy to keep running him out there, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here.

Ruzious was talking about Sisco, who was #57 and #68 pre-2017 and 2018. I think interloper (and thus you) are talking about Severino, who I haven't seen on any rankings.

You at least gotta pass the Newhan Threshold. So he can be awesome for like another 50 or 60 PAs and that still won't be enough evidence. I'm definitely curious though.

Maybe they want to be able to go for like a $300k kid in the 13th round or something? *Shrug*