makoman

No one knows cause no one has said, and they can do whatever they want. When hockey skipped a season they had a lottery, weighted in certain ways that I don’t recall (I think those with recent #1 picks actually got less chance in the lottery). But again, who knows.

I guess it can be fun and all, but we should know better than to try and predict rosters several years out, especially when you are hoping the team is moving from terrible to good. From the 25 man roster for the divisional series against the Yankees in 2012, only 7 were even with the organization opening day 2010. (other notables: Markakis was injured, Arrieta and Britton were omitted from the roster).

Well, if he'd picked Kjerstad and then some regular 4thish and 5thish type guys he would not get much positivity at all, even if he thought Kjerstad was a legit #2. For me, those 4th and 5th round guys are really interesting, and he did a good job of executing the strategy of underslot plus some overslots. I said somewhere above, this team can't just do what everybody else does in our division so I'm happy taking a risk here. It could blow up in our faces but it's a plan with a strategy and that's something we haven't always seemed to have. I am also projecting some of my feelings onto this...to me, if he felt that Martin was a slam dunk all star in waiting that is vastly better than the alternatives he would have just picked Martin. You take that with your draft if you can get it and call it a day. The fact that he decided to go with this strategy at all implies that he doesn't see that vast difference between Martin and Kjerstad, either the former isn't such a slam dunk or the latter is more of a top 5 guy to him, or both. So yeah, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt and also adding some wishful/hopeful thinking. It helps that I didn't follow this all that much so I wasn't already anchored to Martin like a lot of people, I understand being disappointed when you've already decided who's best.

What if they took CJ Abrams and saved over $3M, getting basically another mid 1st round pick? A lot of people think Abrams is great, he's around a top 25 prospect...That would have been interesting. Maybe they get Jack Leiter for that, I don't know what he wanted or who else might have been available. But again, would have been interesting...

Yeah we could save a lot of money! We saw what kind of analysis Luke gave when he was here. It's not like we are just inputting stats into a computer, it's still scouting, just informed more by analytics to (hopefully) give even more accurate info. I also think people forget that Elias himself was a scout for a number of years. You know he's looking at a ton of film, at least for the #2 pick.

Because the negative voices are based on the information we have being right, but the information we have has larger error bars than normal. The basis for most people hating this draft is "we had the chance to take a premium talent and settled for a guy out of the top 10." That is unquestionably true if you look at draft profiles from January. This list for example from December 2018 has JJ Bleday as the 26th prospect, Lodolo 27th, Manoa 28th. That's three top 11 picks six months later, including #4. Things can change a lot in a season, and we kind of missed out on a lot of that. https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-draft/2018/12/12/2019-mlb-draft-top-50-player-rankings-version-1 Elias surely had any number of underslot options if that's what he wanted. I suspect he had reason to believe that Hjerstad was one of those guys who would be rising this year, whether he believed in the new K rate or saw something else, and was able to get a guy that was still underrated by the industry. Maybe not Martin level, but maybe not all that far. But I acknowledge I'm talking out of my butt a little, things could have moved the other way too. Martin could have solidified as a clear cut #1 pick, and Hjerstad could have played himself out of the first round or down into the 20s.

Let's say you're the Twins, picking at 27, with slot of $2.5M. Maybe you really liked Mayo, maybe even at close to $2.5M, but you simply liked Aaron Sabato a bit better. By the time you get around to your pick again at 59 you only have a $1.19M slot. You have an idea of the price and don't feel like trying to make Mayo work with later underslot shenanigans so you go elsewhere. It's easy to imagine a handful of teams liking a guy in the first round but due to having other guys higher on their board and the circumstances of their picks they just pick other people, and then by the time they pick again they feel their slot is too far away from the expected price so they go with an easier sign. And baseball prospects are so far away from the majors and rely so much on development that I think different teams have vastly different boards. Some teams could have a guy in the late 1st while others have him in the 3rd or 4th. I bet there's probably like 50 or 60 or even more players that at least one team thinks is a "first round talent."

And 290 hitters sophomore year turn into 340 hitters junior year if they take the next step. Rutschman hit 234 his freshman year, he should've just quit right?

The problem with many of the angry hot takes is that the data we have is stale. A lot can change with these 20-21 year old kids (not to mention high schoolers) in a year and we didn't really get to see much this year. Austin Hays hit 269 with 3 homers and a 729 OPS his sophomore year. You think that gets him drafted? But then he hit 350 with 16 homers and a 1.060 OPS junior year. What if he'd only played 10 games that year? The baseball draft is already a big crapshoot and this one the decisionmakers had even less information than usual. We have to hope that our guys are able to identify the ones who were making that next step.

Kjerstad hit 438 this year. 343 career. Westburg hit 317 this year, 294 last year (with OBPs over 400). Haskin hit 333 this year, 372 last year. Servideo hit 390 this year 287 last year. Mayo hit 455 this year, 391 last year (high school). What are you talking about?

We're competing with two teams that can always be top 5 in payroll, one team that can be top 10, and another that's typically one of the smartest teams in baseball. I don't think we can regularly compete with that by just doing what everyone else is doing. I'm glad they aren't just copy pasting fangraphs or BA rankings, they seem to have identified qualities that might indicate that certain types of players can outplay their consensus value. I like taking that risk so I'm willing to give it a chance, but I give a B cause it could just blow up in our faces. Even though Kjerstad wasn't seen as a #2 talent and was probably picked for slot money purposes, I suspect they see him as a lot better than the consensus does. If he'd kept up his early season for an entire year he would surely have risen up the boards. They probably think that's the real him now. Someone else said it this week, it's too bad we can't trade picks. If you value players differently than the consensus trading is perfect for you. The Ravens are always trading down and claiming they still got their guy. Don't have to worry about finessing the slots if you simply can trade Martin for Kjerstad and a 2nd.

Kjerstad turned 21 this year. Davis in his age 21 year (about 3/4 at high A and 1/4 at AA) had a 6% walk rate and 28% K rate, at age 22 in AA and AAA it was 8% and 22% plus 6% and 28% in the majors. He didn't really learn to walk at an above average rate till 2013. Shrug.

I don't really know anything about any of these guys, but I think the bottom line is you have to decide whether this year is a small sample size or development and improvement. He went from a 21.6% K rate/7% BB rate last year to 11.5%/9% this year, in 78 PAs. According to fangraphs K rate stabilizes at 60 PAs. If he did what he did this year all year he'd have been an easy top 5 guy IMO. The problem with this year is you have to project the rest of the year, but if you do that correctly you might look like a genius. I would bet JJ Bleday wasn't a top 5 pick in March last year, but then he went and hit 27 HR after having 6 the previous two years. Also, it's been said, but in an incredibly small sample (14 games) for Team USA last year he led the team with a .395 BA and 1.077 OPS (.395/.426/.651). Tork was .260/.361/.440 and Martin .250/.321/.396.

FWIW, obviously trade deadlines and September decisions would be different with more things on the line, but in the 00's we would have additionally made the playoffs only in 2013 (one game playoff, tied for 8th). I think this really shows the team's ineptitude during this century.

I'm surprised nobody mentioned Markakis (I think). Stole 18 bases once and I believe his speed was above average when he came up. Excellent arm of course and definitely had the hit tool. Gold glove caliber defense. Power was good enough especially when he came up, despite the HR going away if he plays another year he could be top 50 in career doubles. And he could balance a vacuum on his chin.

If the owners get their way and have a 50 game season that's only 155 PAs to qualify for the batting title. It's kind of too bad that David Newhan is always the poster child for these things, but in his first 155 PAs in 2004 he hit .376/.426/.567 with a nice little .410 BABIP. He was still at .403 at 141 PAs before finishing those 155 PAs 1 for 12 with 2 walks. I think it'd be great if a guy like that hits .400 in 2020*. I remember Robbie Alomar was still over .400 in June of 1996 and just looked and he was at .404 after 59 games and 274 PAs. It won't be crazy at all if this happens. A guy like Newhan would be so much more amusing though. Maybe by some odd quirk the O's face like 80% lefties and Hanser gets there.

This made me laugh. And remember that Chris Davis should have ended up at 11 fWAR, rather than retiring at 12.7 (hopefully).

Fair enough. I thought that was reported as the consensus but who knows how teams actually felt. Anyway, I was thinking of it in the context of Moose’s “Why can’t we get the steal for once.” Which is like saying why can’t we get lucky/smart with something everyone else missed. If we missed the other way with another guy later that doesn’t really matter.

Yeah, and weren't we the only team that wanted him as a position player?

I believe Markakis had the most WAR in his draft class. (Adam Jones was second). So we did pretty well there.

Not all post career. His Yankees team yearbook photo one year was him at the prom with a 17 year old he'd been with for two years. A long read: https://www.sbnation.com/2014/7/15/5883593/the-many-crimes-of-mel-hall

Nick Gonzales hit .432/.532/.773 in 2019. Our own Joey Ortiz, last year's 4th rounder and Gonzales's typical double play partner at SS, hit .422/.474/.697. He proceeded to hit .241/.345/.267 at Aberdeen. I know nothing about Gonzales and don't know what to make of those numbers. They're crazy.

Agreed. Nothing in the OP affects the on TV product whatsoever IMO, and I'm over an hour away now so rarely go in person anyway.