makoman

You at least gotta pass the Newhan Threshold. So he can be awesome for like another 50 or 60 PAs and that still won't be enough evidence. I'm definitely curious though.

Maybe they want to be able to go for like a $300k kid in the 13th round or something? *Shrug*

More Goose than Maverick

Our 5th Round picks since Arrieta: Robert Neustrom, Lamar Sparks, Alexis Torres, Jason Heinrich, David Hess, Travis Seabrooke, Colin Poche, Matt Taylor, Connor Narron, Ashur Toliver, Greg Miclat Guys here are gonna have warts. This guy seems interesting, sounds like he has some tools and potential.

Right. It's the 79th pick. MLB had him ranked 111, I think BA was at 90. He's probably underslot but it's not like he's a senior sign or something.

Plus, IIRC each team is only allowed to have 4 foreign players. There's only 12 teams in the NPB, so that's a pretty low limit unless they change that. Also, are teams really going to be clamoring for unknown American 17 year olds when older foreign players like Dennis Sarfate and Tuffy Rhodes take those spots and become perennial MVP candidates?

Mainly a super-utility guy that hadn't broken into the majors until age 27. But I think Leslie Brea was the headliner.

Ponson?

Funny in 2013 they got the obvious future superstar from Notre Dame, while we got the also ran.

Fair enough. Looking at it another way, last year it looks like there were about 228 players who amassed 2.0 bWAR or more. 2012 had 227 such players so that # looks reasonable enough. So about 7.5 per team. Since all those players were acquired over more than an 8 year period then perhaps you should be thrilled if you're getting 1 starting level type player per draft.

Yeah our main problem IMO was too many drafts where we'd only hit on 1 guy. 2006 - Britton is the only one who gave us value. 2009 - Just Givens. 2010 - Machado draft, but that was it. 2011 - Bundy and then Davies gave us no value but got us a bad few months from Parra (blech). 2012 - Gausman, and Hader got us Bud Norris (double blech). I don't know what's normal, but it'd be nice to start hitting on like 3-5 guys a year.

Barry Bonds went to college.

I cringe every time I see “I expect a borderline HOFer at 1-1” or “Ben McDonald was a total disaster.” People need to get their expectations in check or they’re just asking for disappointment.

The jury’s still out on Sisco, but not on 3 guys in A ball? And the one you’re touting is old for the level? And the one who seems most promising can barely manage a .100 ISO? How about we just don’t worry about need for 1-1?

Bleday’s advisor?

It did to Miguel Tejada.

A 20 WAR career is no disaster, even if it wasn't what we wanted. A pretty middle of the road 1-1 pick, and the next five picks totaled 0.2 WAR so it's not like we missed something obvious (then Frank Thomas was picked 7th, blah).

Yeah, I’m sure you agree, but IIRC Hobgood was like a 25-60 type of talent. That’s a lot different than taking, say, the #5 talent to go over slot later. It’s a valid strategy but it’s risky. That said, I have no desire to get cute here. I want AR. I’d accept Witt if Elias is fine with the hit tool (and if he picks him, he must be).

Probably should be close. Last year's Grayson, Grenier, Knight, and Rom were picked 11, 37, 87, 115 and were ranked 2, 23, 9, and 15 by OH in November. The year before DL Hall, Adam Hall, Lowther, and Baumann were picked 21, 60, 74, 98 and were ranked 5, 15, 16, 12 by OH that November. So generally the new draft picks are decently ranked. Of the current top 20, Kline probably graduates, and any warm body picked at 78 probably is ahead of Ortiz and Tate at this point, but I have no idea.

If your criteria for success excludes Griffey and Arod it’s probably too harsh.

More fun: 0.7 vs 1.5 (or 0.6 vs 1.4 if you prefer) He’s certainly done better than any of us could have hoped though.

This thread is great cause I can avoid listening to Vinny ? I will say that it's pretty disappointing for him to say we've got "Mountcastle and not much else" as position players, when still have former top-100 guys Hays, Diaz, and Sisco down there...disappointing because the truth hurts, since they haven't done much at all this year other than Sisco's insane hot streak that seems to have ended. Hopefully they can get themselves back on track.

Yeah, I haven’t seen much this year but got a chance to watch tonight and really enjoyed the job he did just pitching. It’s a real shame he’s not at ~96 like he used to be.

http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/2019/05/2019-draft-preview-bobby-witt-jr/ The blurbs and the overview seem to make clear that the hit tool is a concern to some people. More swing and miss than people would like. Might be meaningless, but it's something. Again, I'm no scout, so I'm just repeating what I've seen, and this isn't the only place that said that. He's still a consensus top few pick, but you seem to be saying above that it'd be dumb not to take him at 1-1 and I just don't agree with that.

Hit. The most important one, where if you fail you don't make it. Now is that just nitpicking or prospect fatigue, or is it real? Who knows...we would have to trust Elias to make that call (he no doubt has personally scouted him)