Pickles

Citing what Taillon did 5,6, and 7 years ago is yes, largely irrelevant, when projecting what he is going to do over the next four. Look at what they did last year- the far more important data point. Lyles was basically 90% the pitcer Taillon was. That's got a lot more to do with 2023-26 than what happened in 2015.

Well, again there was just the article floating around the board a few weeks ago where Westburg fell off the top 100, and his defensive concerns- specifically not being aided by the shift anymore- were prevalently cited as to why.

Well, I guess that's the thing: Taillon wasn't lots better than Lyles last year.

Well, I'm not paying them for what they have done but what they will do, so their career numbers are pretty irrelevant. Lyles was 90% of the pitcher Taillon was last year; they're basically the same age, and he has been far more durable. It's incongruous to me that one guy isn't worth 1/10 but the other guy will get 4/56. In a vacuum, I'd probably prefer Taillon, but such discrepancies in contract status is insane to me.

Call me crazy but I'd rather have Lyles at 1/10 than any of those three at those suggested contracts. Those all seem like insane overpays.

I'm not sure that is as universally accepted as you seem to think. It will be interesting to see these guys with my own eyes and see how they stack up to their scouting reports.

For me, the difference is future defensive value. Ortiz is universally praised as a ML caliber SS. Now maybe that's wrong, but those are the reports. Westburg is a guy who might stick at 2nd. The write up released a few weeks ago where he was lowered on somebody's list specifically called him out as a guy who had been shift-aided into playing the left side of the infield. So SS/3b seem to be unrealistic destinations for him. So hopefully, he can stick at 2nd, but even if he does that its significantly less valuable than a plus SS.

Well, personally, I'd be shocked, but I'm not near as plugged in as you, and obviously as the FO is. I think he still has starter upside, and he could survive and contribute in a limited bullpen role as soon as next year. To me, that makes him an ideal Rule 5 pick, and somebody that should be protected. But I cede to the experts.

If the scouting reports are accurate, I'd take Ortiz over Westburg.

You have been the most effusive but you have hardly been alone. It's just my impression. That's all.

I'm a bit surprised to see that Ortiz is this "low." The praise for him on this board- not necessarily from Tony though- has been effusive. It seems the consensus is he's an everyday SS/2b and he's ready immediately. If that's true and we have six better guys than that, awesome!

And as RZNJ has pointed out, it doesn't really matter at all. If they'd brought him up in 2021 he'd be a FA after 27; instead they brought him up in 22 and he's a FA after 27. Elias didn't manage to swipe a pick, and a lot of that is on Adley's injury in ST.

Sure, and for the 9th overall prospect in your system you should be pretty thrilled.

Eh. It would be nice if he were clairvoyant.

That's pretty myopic. Steve Pearce had a 13 year career, and was worth 10 WAR, and had a career OPS+ of 108.

It is what it is. You can't foresee the CBA change. You can't foresee the injury. However, it sure makes me as the Orioles more interested in trying to find an extension that works for both parties.

Rom's getting protected.

You could send him to the MiLs for 40? 60? day rehab and end up only having them on the roster for like 6 weeks. I think you would then be required to have him on the 25 for a certain number of days in 2024, but I could see some teams going that route.

I think somebody on a long rehab like that might be more attractive as a Rule 5 pick, as they can on the DL instead of the active roster.

I predicted Mayo-Westburg here, so I'm going to stick as closely to my board as possible and go with Westburg-Mayo.

I wouldn't give Archer a guaranteed Major League contract. What am I missing?

That's nothing. Nathan Bedford Forrest went from Private to General in three years.

Pretty self-evident this would affect the East Coast teams the most. And 50 years ago this might have been impactful on the field. But nowadays, this should have virtually no effect. They fly everywhere in private jets, and are probably never in the air for more than 3-4 hours at a time.

I think a lot of accepted wisdom, both on this board and in real life, is accepted simply because the loudest voices repeat it over and over again. That's really all it takes to set a narrative. Regarding Santander, I'd say he's a pretty average outfielder. He's probably a bit below average in range, but he does have a nice arm. He's perfectly suited for RF in Camden. If he had to play in a spacious park, I'd be more concerned about running him out there everyday.

I think Tony's pretty high on him. High enough to put him there. If you believe he's a sure-fire everyday regular at SS/2b then that's where he belongs on that list.