Pickles

I say it's: 1. Henderson 2. Rodriguez 3. Holliday 4. Ortiz 5. Hall 6. Cowser 7. Mayo 8. Westburg 9. Norby 10. Kjerstad

TBH, maybe I've been too optimistic about Means' recovery, but I was hopeful he'd be up by June, not August.

No, apparently you can't be tagged with the QO multiple times anymore. So he was inelgible for it. Obviously, it increases his attractiveness as a target.

Well, that's kind of a potato-potato issue. Either way, they're predicting increased ML production from those two, and several others for that matter. Hays and Mountcastle among them. But yes, I think projections or just common sense, should lead one to think we should be focusing on improving the pitching as a priority.

I'm saying based on the steamer projections for 2023 release yesterday, the O's are projected to be about 80 runs worse than the best teams in the league.

Oh, yeah, they are projecting Adley to improve, and Gunnar to be worth over 4 wins. Rodriguez pushing 2 wins. So, again it's their projections, but they see as an above average team already, fueled by internal improvements.

The issue with Rodriguez putting up a monster season like that is that even though he might very well perform admirably he isn't going to be anywhere near a full season's workload. But yeah, I could definitely see scenarios where he far exceeds the 1.7 WAR projection.

I'm saying 80 runs not based on last year's wins/runs total, but on the projection for 2023. The fangraphs projection released yesterday had us at +20, and the best teams in the league, at +105. Personally, that seems intuitively about right. I guess opinions can vary.

Absolutely. You can define "monster" talent however you want, but this team needs about 8 wins to be considered in the top echelon of AL clubs.

But he's in addition to them. I guess it really boils down to how you feel about Stowers. I'd rather have 650 abs of Abreu than 650 abs of Stowers, and the difference there may well be getting to 20 runs or so.

Well, there will be a diminshing return with starters as well, though I agree it's not as announced as it is on the positional side of the roster. Notice I projected more like 20-30 for the positional upgrade. Basically, we need to upgrade a lot of Mancini's and Odor's (and Chirinos') at bats. Of course, a lot of of the upgrade to Odor's abs is cooked into the formula for next year already, with Henderson getting most of them. But a guy like Abreu certainly could do 20 runs for this lineup. Guys need days off. Guys get injured.

Yeah, maybe.

This is a really interesting post. I'm sure I could pick apart the process to arrive at the number, but intuitively, that feels right: The O's need to add about 80 runs to the roster to be in the top echelon of the American League, and those 80 runs must come above and beyond the increased playing time for the youngsters, notably our two best players Adley and Gunnar. That's the question of the offseason: How do we gain eight wins reasonably and without hampering future considerations? A TOR should be projected to provide 40-50 of those runs. A DH/COF/1b should be to add 20-30. This team is not far off. It doesn't need massive turnover. Two-three good signings should see this team into the playoffs.

Well, let's hope that comes to pass.

Apparently deGrom has expressed an interest in pitching for the Rangers. https://www.nj.com/sports/2022/11/mets-jacob-degrom-expresses-interest-in-rangers-report-says.html

You're going to have to provide evidence that anyone is acting like Lyles is "excellent." This team will need more innings in 2023 than is currently on the roster. I assure you of that. If they manage to upgrade Lyles' innings, that's ideal. If they don't, then I think they'll have problems next year.

I've refrained from joining in to too many of the trade and FA hypotheticals consuming the board the last 2 weeks or so- and I'm not criticizing because it is literally all there is to talk about now- because it's impossible to judge one move outside of the context of the other moves that will follow. If they had picked up Lyles' option, I would have been ok with it, so long as they picked up another pitcher with higher upside. If they declined it as they did, I'm cool with that too, so long as they pick up a guy with higher upside who is likewise pretty durable. That's going to cost money and hopefully they can get something worked out with a FA pitcher. But if they don't, for whatever reason, they currently have a hole in their rotation that needs filling.

I have a lot of confidence in Elias- at this point, I don't see how anybody couldn't- but it is possible to follow good processes and have bad outcomes.

I was on the fence about the option; I certainly don't think it's quite as black and white as some. If they replace Lyles' innings with a clear upgrade in talent, who still projects to have Lyles' durability, this is the way to go. If they don't, for whatever reason, I could see them missing those innings next year.

How many of those guys are capable of throwing 180 innings next year?

Honestly, with the exception of deGrom and Rodon, those contracts all look lower than I expected to see.

I would predict nothing "major" until after the Winter Meetings, which are Dec. 7. The first big decision we'll see is whether they decline or pick up Lyles option, which must be decided by Thursday. I would imagine though they have already made that determination, and would announce it before then. If they aren't picking it up, I'd imagine out of courtesy they'd let him know ASAP.

Ohtani wants to play on the West Coast. It was the whole reason he signed with the Angles in the first place. He left a ton of money on the table in order to do so. He would not a sign a contract to play in Baltimore. It is idle speculation, at best.

It's a good question, and there's no right or wrong answer. I personally think Urias would have more value- the longer track record, and much higher offensive floor, would support that. But I really think it depends on the acquiring team. I have little doubt some team would prefer Mateo.

I bet Mateo would prefer the GG.