Pickles
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Posts posted by Pickles
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36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
So far, we are seeing people predict everyone to basically be in the 760-900ish range. Zero chance that happens for several guys in the lineup over the course of a full season worth of at bats.
The team OPS last year was 705. With the numbers people are predicting, you would expect the team to have an OPs on the upper 700s, which probably makes them one of the 5 best offenses in the majors. Zippy chance that’s happening.
Eh. In this thread the vase majority have shared the same projection you did.
Nobody is going to predict somebody having a terrible year, though that will surely happen.
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I put him at 780-809. I think he's a little more consistent than last year, and still an above average hitter, but I don't think 2019 is happening again. And if I were a betting man, I'd say he'll be the most hurt by the new dimensions.
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Just now, Can_of_corn said:
Sure?
I don't think it is much of a difference either way.
As I said they had just had the stadium built, they probably felt a need to show some sort of commitment to spending.
Well, I have a hard time believing they signed him to show commitment. because of how it ended obviously. And any skeptical good will they may have gained, was doubly betrayed a year later.
Clearly they signed him with the intention of trading him later. Now they got away with it, and timed it perfectly, but I'm not sure you can applaud that decision-making.
As to his relative value- conceding this is all speculation- I believe he's more valuable on the trade market without the extension because that contract narrows his market down to 3-4 clubs. Without it that market expands, and with a year or + left of control, teams like STL or SEA get involved. And in theory, with more competition for his services you should be able to get a better return.
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4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
They didn't get hurt by the backloaded contract.
Maybe they would have been marginally better trading him instead of extending him, maybe not.
They had just moved into a publicly funded stadium, they probably got a bit of good PR out of it that they wouldn't have otherwise.
They still owe 30-60 to the Yankees on the backend.
They almost certainly would have been better off trading him before they signed him to the extension, even without the MVP season.
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4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Guess it depends on how you look at it.
I think it was a dumb contract both at the time and in hindsight.
But that doesn’t mean it was a bad idea to sign him. It just depends on what else you are willing to do around a contract like that.
It really is all about perspective.
You could praise them for moving on at the exact right time.
But they got nothing in return for him.
And they still owe it looks like 30-60 million to the Yankees on the backend.
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26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
And they were right to trade him.
Were they right to sign him?
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Just now, wildcard said:
Its alright to be wary. I am positive and optimistic. We are talking about a guy that may go 1:1 in the draft.
It's surprising with his tools he isn't playing SS now.
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5 minutes ago, wildcard said:
I know all that but you said you had read about him at SS. That is what I am interested in. Callis said he can be a plus SS if given the chance. IMO if the O's draft him and he can be a plus SS defensively and hit well the O's don't have one of those. They have an All-Star in CF and a #1 draft choice who is a CF just taken in the draft. If Elias can find a plus defensive SS who can hit he will fly through he minors in two years and be the O's starting SS in 2024. As you said "A man can dream."
We're starting to get far afield, but I would be wary of projecting any amateur to move up on the positional spectrum.
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5 minutes ago, interloper said:
Sure, I just have my doubts that a) Hays stays healthy enough and b) that Santander is a true piece. Are they our guys, or should we try to get some pitching for them ahead of guys like Cowser, Stowers, and Kjerstad coming up? I don't know! Just a hypothetical.
There's nothing wrong with it as a hypothetical. And I agree with you largely regarding their value/issues.
But Hays hasn't even reached arb yet. If he has a good first half, I'm hoping he builds on that. Not looking to get rid of him.
Santander is probably in a different boat. But even he has years of team control remaining.
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Just now, Sports Guy said:
Yea. At some point you have to keep guys.
That being said, you also have to question what the futures of each individual player is.
I am on the trade Mullins bandwagon partly because I don’t think he will be as good moving forward, partly because I worry about his CF defense in 2-4 years and because he starts getting expensive when the team plans to contend and while the money isn’t a big deal, you question whether he will be worth 10-15M as he approaches 30.
If the Os were trying to win right now, maybe that would be different but they aren’t, so go get a good deal for him now. If one isn’t there and everyone is skeptical, you keep him. If We can get Meyer and Lopez for him, you have to pull the trigger.
It always comes down to individual cases.
I in fact floated trading Santander in his projection thread.
However, I expect us to start getting better right now and going forward.
It will be hard to do that if the mentality is that as soon as a guy establishes himself and plays well, we're looking to "optimize" their value and trade them, even with multiple years remaining of team control.
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8 minutes ago, interloper said:
Hypothetical: if both Hays and Santander have good first halves, would you trade both of them or is that too big of a depth hit at once? Let's say Mullins is playing well and Stowers looks ready for his shot. You'd still need to fill LF with somebody less than ideal, options being McKenna, Stewart, Neustrom if he's still in the org, Nevin, or somebody like Jones or Mateo.
We don't have to trade either of them.
This idea- and I'm not accusing you of endorsing it- that we're just waiting for our guys to play well so we can trade them is absurd to me.
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11 minutes ago, btdart20 said:
2020 was inflated with a high Babip and a BB/K ratio much better than his minor league track record.
Mounty definitely enjoyed hitting at OPACY in 2021 (but who doesn't?). .871 OPS at home vs. .713 OPS on the road. He had two really strong months (June - 1.016 OPS and August - 1.183 OPS). The highest OPS for the other months was .748. His second half was better from a plate discipline perspective. 20 BB in 328 PA in the first half vs. 21 BB in 258 PA in the second half. He also traded doubles for HR in the second half (but skimming through the game log seems to be more away games at hitter's parks).
Barrel% almost doubled to 11.8% compared to 6.1% in 2020. EV, LA, HardHit% are all league average or better. Increased K% and 9% increase in Pull% indicates a shift in approach. The changeup got him more in 2021, so he's probably keying in on FBs for power.
He'll be 25. If he can take a step forward lowering his chase rate, then he could be a big contributor. I think he can improve on last year's numbers.
I'll go with the .810-.839 range with a chance for more. Of the 2021 roster, I think Mounty's bat has the most upside.
The bolded is an interesting thought experiment but I do believe you're right.
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28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
If he's getting consistent playing time while healthy it's probably going to be because he's playing well (establishing himself). They kind of go hand in hand as long as everyone else isn't wetting the bed.
I guess the statement was bit redundant.
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I went 790-820. I really expect to see Hays establish himself this year. If he can stay healthy and get consistent playing time.
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I went with 810-840. I expect to see more growth and consistency this year. You could see his plate discipline improve last year as the season progressed.
I was very impressed with his bat speed and plate coverage last year.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
Figure that 1.8 in 2020 was the equivalent to 5.0 in a full year. So, 11.8 for 2019-21. Only 11 players reached 11.8 fWAR (I’m using that flavor because their leaderboard can do multiple years): Semien, Soto, Bogaerts, Betts, Ramirez, T. Turner, Harper, Acuna, Story, Realmuto, Freeman. I don’t see Santander reaching that level. If he was worth 9 WAR the next three years that would be a 90th percentile outcome for him IMO.
Your odds line up with mine. 90% for 3 WAR. Maxed out 4-5.
The issue is how often that happens. Very rarely for sure.
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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Odor is 28, has a career rWAR of 6.8, career high of 2.7, career OPS+ of 88, career OBP of 289.
Santander is 27, has a career rWAR of 2.6, career high of 1.5 (not counting his fine 37 games in 2020 {1.6}), career OPS+ of 97, career OBP of 290.
His 2020 was really good but if you look at the total body of work it isn't dissimilar to Odor.
I don't know if 15 WAR would be unprecedented by someone with his career to date, but it's pretty darn unlikely.
I'm just guessing here but I don't think the list of position players that managed 15 WAR in a three season span is all that large.
ESPN has 35 players at 5 WAR or above in 2021.
39 in 2019
32 in 2018
https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders
Regarding Odor and Santander, look at their career arcs.
Santander's upside is probably 30+ HRs, good RF defense, and a mid to high 800 OPS, short on OBP. He's extremely unlikely to do that, especially strung across several seasons. But it's well within the realm of possibility.
Again, I'll take that over some rando 45 from Miami.
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40 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Santander will play 2022 at 27 years old. We don't know if he has reach his peak yet.
Santander putting up 15 WAR over the next three years is not unprecedented. It's highly unlikely, of course, but this is a player with some upside. This is not Odor.
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34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Well that’s really the crux of the discussion. Would you rather have 2 more Kyle Bradish type guys, the roster spot and money or Santander?
If you would rather have Santander, that’s fine but I tend to doubt his value eclipses 2 Bradish type guys and we aren’t winning anything with him, so why keep him?
That was my argument a year ago. It’s my argument now and considering he just went through another injury filled year where he also didn’t hit well, I would suspect that my argument is correct. And now, we run the risk of losing him for nothing.
It’s highly unlikely the Orioles tender him a contract for 2023 unless he shows he can stay healthy and produce well. Those are 2 things he has never proven he can do.
I think Bradish is pretty ambitious for Santander. I think two of them is a pipe dream- even at the peak of his value. I couldn't care at all about the money or roster spot. And if he stinks in 2022 I'm not worried about potentially DFAing him.
He's got the potential to put a 4-5 WAR campaign. I believe that's his upside. And he's ML ready. He's cheap. And he's here.
I'll take that before a dart throw- which I admit we value differently apparently.
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10 hours ago, Frobby said:
By Fangraphs’ valuation methodology, that puts the value of our system at $322 mm. That’s the highest of the 13 systems they have ranked so far. Still, for me it’s a little disappointing. I would have hoped for slightly higher grades for Westburg/Kjerstad/Stowers, and some more depth. Last year we had 47 players at 35+, this year only 45.
Last year $322 mm wouid have ranked 4th, behind Tampa ($558 mm), Detroit ($360 mm) and Miami ($330 mm), with Minnesota close behind at $314.5 mm. Detroit had some graduations and is valued at $222 mm this year. The other three haven’t been graded yet this year. At present the second most valuable system of the ones graded is Pittsburgh at $294 mm.
I kind of failed to get back to you in the other thread about this, but I thought about it a bit, and I'm not sure if there is a "better" way to make a cumulative tally.
But I still think this is a very blunt instrument.
I appreciate they value hitters and pitchers of the same prospect ranking differently, but we can all agree it goes beyond that. It paper overs so much risk variance; a 17 year old Dominican 45 is a different kind of 45 than a college junior draftee in AAA.
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
Sure we do because he wasn’t dealt and if they don’t deal him this year and he sucks in 2022 and/or is oft injured again, then you DFA him or don’t offer him arbitration…and then you will have lost him for nothing.
We know that at least the Marlins wanted him last year, at least reportedly. A deal could have been worked out. That same team has now gone out and, stupidly, signed Avisail Garcia to a big deal. It’s likely that the Marlins ship has sailed unless they go with the DH in the NL and they want him for another bat.
When I look at him I don't regret not trading him in the past because he's never had much value; I'm more interested in whether he could establish some value and we could get something going forward.
I guess I would just rather roll the dice with him than two random 45s from Miami.
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
This is possibly true. Acting as if it’s a certainty is wrong.
Fair enough.
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4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
SG is correct that in hindsight he had higher value back then. Maybe not elite value, but more so than currently. You may be right it is very possible Elias shopped him but was not wowed enough by any of the offers to justify trading him. I was fine with keeping him since he still had several years of control and some upside to increase his value further. Unfortunately it didn't work out that way.
Higher?
Sure.
But it's negligible.
We don't need to be bemoaning losing the "chance" to trade him 12 months ago at "peak" value.
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6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
Who said they had to overvalue him?
My suggestion at the time was something like a top 10 guy and a top 15 guy..say something like Bradish and Pinto or something like that.
For his service time, age and upside, that’s a reasonable return and not an overvalue. Even now, you could argue that it’s a fair deal even with his injuries although I think the chances of you getting that deal before 2021 are greater than today.
My point is simply that there has been no real change in his value in the last year.
Very minor?
Sure.
But nobody was giving up anything for him 12 months ago that they probably wouldn't now.
What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Adley Rutschman?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Some people are going to be very disappointed in his bat.
I went with 720-759, but I expect him on the higher end of that. I'd put the over under at 750.