Pickles

Brian Roberts, no?

I think another thing worth pointing out is that rebuilds almost never go in linear fashion. There seems to be a belief that we'll win 70 game and then 80 and then 90 and we'll be right in contention. That's doubtful. Go look at the Ray in 08 when they finally got good. Or the O's in 12. Or the Cubs and Astros. Those teams got good overnight. So even if you believe we'll be competitive in 2024, it's very possible that we won't be any good until then, and well under .500 in 23.

They got pretty lucky in 2012. What if it hadn't come together until 2014?

I wouldn't necessarily fully embrace your time-line, but I have long felt we're further away than the general consensu seems on the board. None of our top prospects has even arrived in the MLs. It will take years for those top prospects to affect winning and losing at the ML level. You can do the math. The Baltimore Orioles in 2018 were probably in the worst position in modern history in terms of being prepared to compete.

That about sums it up.

I'm glad somebody brought this up- if only obliquely. I'm seeing a lot of hope in here that one would have thought the years of Orioles' fandom would have ripped out of a man's soul. Pitching prospects are much, much riskier than positional ones. As such, there's really no way to justify ranking Rodriguez over Rutschman. (That is not to say, of course, that ALL positional prospects should be ranked over ALL pitching prospects.)

Much more likely is the Royals remember him from last year, and spent all of Saturday night out drinking in anticipation of their big day.

We stink. It's wearing on me. Not to add to your burden, but adding run differentials might be enlightening.

Well you hit it: BPA is in the eye of the beholder, and it's possible he was BPA for them.

It's really starting to appear that it's hard to call him a "reach" or even an "overdraft."

It still doesn't condemn the pick or the process behind the pick. So it's not a very effective way to criticize Elias or this pick.

I was going to respond to SG, but you're making the same point so..... The more teams do it, it isn't as effective. It probably doesn't change the calculation much, in terms of rebuilding or going underslot. Personally, I don't see the value in going underslot in the MLB draft. It's such a crapshoot; it would be one thing if you were trading down for more picks. In fact a very different thing.

Knee-jerk: I don't like it.

Fair enough. I still remember, and I know several others do too, Bedard's performance against Texas on 7/7/07. That was an impressive sight. Bedard looked like what they say Sandy Koufax did. I can easily imagine remembering this arm. I just went and looked at his minor league stats. He averaged over 11 K/9 in the MiLs for the O's back when that would have meant something.

I mean to ask about this. Bedard looked better than Bundy did in Delmarva?

There's a few skill sets I like to see in young players that allow them imo to often outperform their "raw" talent level. I'm not saying become superstars, but become starting level ML players when that wasn't the label put on them in the minors. One is a young pitcher with COMMAND of multiple pitchers. Another is a young SS who has the ability to play at the ML level NOW. Not just a kid with a ton of range and a huge arm, but one with the polish and fundamentals to not just be a projection. Rom obviously falls into the former category. I'm starting to get a little excited about Grenier who falls into the latter. This biggest problem for these command/control guys at the upper levels is they become terrified to throw strikes because they get hammered, so even with all their command, they live six inches OFF the plate, which does them no favors. It's why physical growth can be so important for them. E-Rod burst onto the national scene when he got stronger and threw harder. If Rom can follow a similar path, I believe he has the ability to be a similar kind of pitcher.

There well may be room for both of them on the team going forward- a lot of that will depend on Jones' development- but there obviously isn't room for both in LF at the same time. Nobody knows the future, and a rebuilding team should be keeping all its options open, but I believe that Hays is a significantly better "prospect" than Jones, particularly if limiting them to LF.

I'd be shocked if Jones was even in the same class as Hays defensively in LF. Hays has played the best LF I can remember an Oriole doing in a long, long time.

Again, you're not wrong, but it is important to note that when Rodriguez started getting positive prospect writeups he didn't have the velocity he later developed. He started getting noticed as a 19 year old- nationally- and the reports were more about "four pitches," "command/control," "pitchability." Now Tony was in on Rodriguez a year or two before the national guys, saying much the things they would come to say. Now, he's saying many of the same things about this kid. And frankly Rom has better minor league numbers than Rodriguez, including significantly higher K rates. So that's kind of what I'm asking: 1) Does this guy have that kind of upside? 2) It probably does include adding velocity. I notice they're both listed at 6'2" but Rom is listed as 50 lbs lighter than Rodriguez. What's the physical projection on Rom? Does he look like he can add strength to his frame? I guess I'm a real slut, but when I hear about a 19 year old lefty with "four pitches" and "command/control," I get all wet.

I mean velocity is important. I'm not trying to deny that. I was just wondering if it wasn't anything more.

You're not wrong. But look at their results I posted above. Very, very similar.

I mean, I think E-Rod is a cut above but they're results are pretty similar. E-Rod: 788 IP ERA+ 109 WAR 13.6 Davies: 772 IP ERA+ 111 WAR 10.3

E-Rod's velocity is a little better. Both than Davies and Rom. That's kind of what I was hoping to get Tony to elucidate on. What made E-Rod a top 50 global prospect, already getting top 100 talk at this point in his career, and Rom basically get no play at all, despite very similar results and similar profiles. Is it just the 3 mph difference in their fastballs?

And a left-handed Davies looks an awful lot like Eduardo Rodriguez.

Compare/contrast Drew Rom and Eduardo Rodriguez as prospects.