Pickles
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Posts posted by Pickles
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9 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I have to say, Emmanuel Rivera was not impressive defensively at either 1B or 3B yesterday. If that’s what we’re going to get from him defensively, I’d rather let Mayo cut his teeth.
You might be right, but it seems a pretty big ask to throw a rookie into a pennant race like this and ask him to outperform even a AAAA type.
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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I believe Mayo earned 13 days of service, and thus could get 31 more without losing rookie status. August 29 would be the earliest he could be called up and be short of 45 days even if he remains on the roster until the end of the season.
I think hoping for a ROY award and thus an extra draft pick next year would be a poor reason to keep him down now, though. If the service issue is the only reason to keep Mayo down, then just bring him up now and send him back when Mountcastle comes off the IL. And, I think the ROY possibility is remote enough where it’s not worth playing that game.
They're probably more influenced by the fact he didn't look like a major league 3b and he hit .059 with a 50% K rate.
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18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
So much depth.
Remember when 3/4s of the board wanted to give Urias away for a bag of chips?
I do.
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Why don't we discuss resurrecting Frank Robinson?
Isn't that a bit more realistic?
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:
Where are you and a few others getting “Ant” from? Why drop the S? Every time I see this it takes me a minute to remember who the poster is talking about. We don’t Henderson “End” or Rutschman “Uts.” It makes no sense to me.
I agree that it’s unlikely that Kjerstad will fully replicate Santander’s production in his first full major league season. It could happen, but odds are against it. Sometimes you have to bite that bullet, though, due to longer term considerations.
Anthony.
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Just now, Sports Guy said:
Poor post…a Pickles special.
Roberts has played 65 games and has a 0.3 War.
Why on earth would we let a productive player like Mullins go to replace him with that?
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27 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
Cowser
Who is in LF?
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26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Luis Robert
More expensive and worse. The SG special.
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1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:
Well, we listen to you.
No you don't or you'd stfu more often.
Look, I'm certainly not advocating giving AS 100 million dollars, though I have in the past thought 3/60 might make sense depending on other factors. I was also a small minority saying he'd get a comp pick this off-season, which has turned out to be true.
But the argument against giving him 100 million shouldn't be if he slumps for 2 weeks people will say stupid things on the internet. That's a stupid argument, almost as stupid as the stupid things people would say after a 2 week slump.
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34 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
Am I the only one around here who remembers what people were saying about Tony when he got off to one of his ice cold starts?
I love him as much as anyone else but if we sign him to 20 million+ per year contract and he starts next season with an OPS in the low .700s or high .600s there’s going to be a lot of upset people.
So because people are stupid we should listen to them?
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Another play that deserves a dissection is the ball hit behind the plate which resulted in the inning ending double play!
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Cry more.
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2 hours ago, survivedc said:
I don’t think anyone is “right” about JH yet, on either side.
I think it's fair to say that banks was right concerning Holliday's arm preventing him from ever being a "good" defensive SS. And his evaluation was way more accurate and way earlier than the general scouting community's.
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3 hours ago, andymax said:
That's great, thank you sir I won't let you down.
You're already exceeding my expectations.
You're free to ignore the substance of my post, but that doesn't negate it.
Banks' opinion/evaluation of Jackson Holliday's defensive potential has been a hell of a lot more accurate than basically anybody's- even people who are paid a lot of money to make those evaluations.
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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:
I'm just questioning the math a bit.
Runner on first steals second sure, he's on second. Runner on first, hitter gets a walk, runner ends up on second and you have a runner on first. Seems worse.
I don't doubt the number your provided, I think it lacks a bit of context since it's dependent on other things happening (the hitter getting on base initially and the runner succeeding in his stolen base attempt).
What's the expected run value of a stolen base attempt? Do they have that listed?
Well the only way a walk results in a runner in scoring position is if SOMETHING ELSE happened, which would not be factored into the platonic value of a BB.
Just rough math you have a single and it's worth .30 runs and then a walk which is worth .25, you have expected .55 runs but that's two separate events.
The 1st to 2nd steal is one event and is worth .30 expected runs, and thus in a platonic sense is worth more than the BB. But platonic depends explitly on a lack of context.
I didn't see a number for SB attempt- as that is entirely dependent upon the success rate, which is going to vary wildly, depending on any number of factors.
I did .3 for successful stolen base, and negative .6 for a caught stealing, which actually lowers the threshold for success rate to make an attempt worthwhile lower than I've seen it generally cited.
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Just now, Can_of_corn said:
Runner on first what would you rather have happen?
The runner steal second.
The batter on first reach via walk.
Of course, that isn't the equation though, because a stolen base requires a runner reaching scoring position, and a walk does not.
I've already said that walks annoy me more than allowing stolen bases, I'm just pointing out the mathematical reality of the matter.
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Just now, Can_of_corn said:
But you need a baserunner to get the steal (in the vast majority of cases).
Sure, but I'm just telling you what the math says.
Personally, I'm more annoyed by walks than giving up stolen bases, but the math says I shouldn't be, which is counterintuitive.
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5 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:
I agree. My concern is the "mostly" part. I'm picking a nit here but mostly means there are missed opportunities to do things that help win games and don't rely on talent or luck. The old saying that good team defense doesn't fall into slumps is probably overblown a bit, but the essence of the sentiment is that there are fundamental things, that if obsessively attended to, help win ball games. Mostly doesn't cut it.
Thanks for reading my rant.
Other than the defense is not as good as it was with the injuries to Westburg and Mateo, and Gunnar's slump (which hopefully appears over), this team is pretty solid defensively.
And it's far to point out that a couple guys on the team are easy to run against, but it's certainly not a staff-wide problem.
Thist team does those "little things" to win games. It does not do them perfectly and 100% of the time, but that is a standard that no team lives up to.
This is a good team that is talented and fundamentally sound. If they weren't we'd have a problem.
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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Something can be both overrated and worth more than nothing.
I'm actually surprised honestly that a stolen base is worth that much. In fact, a stolen base is more valuable than a walk to the offensive team, which makes sense.
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38 minutes ago, eddie83 said:
Without question. Can’t hold forever or throw over as much as you want.
Holding the ball is actually one of the most effective ways at slowing basestealers, and that's completely off the table now.
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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I think holding runners on is overrated.
The goal should be keeping guys off base in the first place.
Mostly when guys are on base I'd rather the pitcher spend most of his energy and focus on the hitter.
Every successful stolen base is worth 0.3 runs. That's not nothing.
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3 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:
When you are a talented team it comes down to doing the little things that great teams, that win championships, do:
1) do you hold runners well?
2) do you field your position?
3) do you take the extra base because you got a good secondary lead?
4) Do you throw to the correct base to not allow the runner to take it?
5) Do you hit the cutoff man?
6) Is the cutoff man in the correct position?
Etc, etc etc...
This is the stuff that good teams work on in Spring Training and great teams never stop working on. When I was originally falling in love with the Orioles it was called "the Oriole Way." That was a long time ago.
The Orioles are a team that mostly does all of those things.
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14 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:
I’ve been saying this in the game threads for a long time. Pitchers holding runners has been an epidemic for 15-20 years now. I saw this when I was finishing up playing ball. Most pitchers only have the quick throw over move when they are coming set. Rarely the pitcher holds the ball anymore and comes over. Rarely does a pitcher have multiple different moves anymore. Base running couldn’t be any easier than it is right now. That the team is too scared to talk to Burnes and Kimbrel says something as well.
The new rules have something to do w that.
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2 hours ago, andymax said:
Can we get at least 4-5 more pages of this discussion so we're 100% clear on where internet poster banks703 stands about JH's defensive potential? I'm willing to accept significantly more if it's necessary, this is important.
You can be snarky all you want, but banks was saying this over a year ago in the face of almost universal dismissal.
And guess what?
He was right; virtually the entire board was wrong; as well as virtually the entire scouting community.
There is simply no better place to find information about the Baltimore Orioles and this is great proof of that.
Should Rubenstein relieve Mike Elias of his duties?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Basallo is probably the best international prospect this franchise has ever produced.
So probably probably right about then.