Pickles
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Posts posted by Pickles
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1 minute ago, dystopia said:
Austin Hays has been just as bad this year.
No, he hasn't.
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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
The good news is that it’s April 21st and we aren’t close to the end of the year.
We literally just went through this last year with Gunnar and the year before with Adley…and people still don’t, can’t and won’t learn. It’s really astounding how the same scenarios pop up and there is zero learning from it.
Adley and Gunnar had some initial struggles.
They didn't strike out 50% of their at bats and look bad in the field simultaneously.
It's disingenuous to compare their struggles with Holliday's.
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44 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
Do they need to? They have developed a few (Strider who was coming off of injury in the 4th round/Friend traded for but was a first rounder) AND they have the best lineup in baseball. I think they hit over 300 home runs last year (307 to be exact).
I'm not that dogmatic. I am not married to any one singular approach. But I believe that recent history shows that if we want to win a championship, we are going to have to spend. - It could be on shorter term older elite starters like the Astros, extensions to young players like the Braves, impact FA signings and trades like the Rangers. I don't expect that we would be anything like the Dodgers.
By that logic, we've developed Rodriguez and Bradish, and we have an exciting you group of positional talent. So do we need to?
Your last paragraph is perfectly reasonable, and not very different from my position. This team is going to spend more money just by arbitration alone, so yeah, the payroll is going to have to increase. I totally want them to extend select young players. And I totally want them to sign FAs that help the team.
I do not expect them to spend money at the top of the FA market like the Rangers have done, but the Astros have not. I think ultimately a team that makes a lot of sense to emulate is the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals rarely sign big free agents, but they do occasionally target a pending FA, trade for him using prospects, and then extend him. Matt Holliday and Nolan Arenado being examples of that. Those are the biggest splashes I expect the O's to make. And I'm fine with it. Making big, expensive moves is radically overrated by most fans in its relation to actually winning baseball games.
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Just now, Bemorewins said:
Of corse we need to beat them, along with the Jays, Ray, and Sox because they are all in our division. We actually don't need to be better record wise to secure a wild card birth.
But the Rangers, Braves, and Dodgers are all much better than the Yankees IMO.
How many FA aces did the Braves sign?
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Just now, Bemorewins said:
Would it have hurt?
The Yankees? IMO, they are not and will not be our main competitors for a World Series. The Rangers, Dodgers, Braves those are the teams who have talent on par with ours. That's who we are going to have to beat.
Yeah, we'll never have to beat the Yankees. Not like they're in our division or anything. Not like they're the most successful franchise in the sport's history. Not like they're in first place as we speak or anything. Nope we don't need to worry about them.
Or, hear me out, we need to beat the Yankees too, and you just want to ignore them because they are proof positive that big splashy acquisitions of "aces" doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of team building.
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1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:
One of them was a rookie and we had a back end starter pitching with our season on the line. Not exactly, ideal IMO.
We could have acquire a much better starter than Flaherty at the deadline or signed an impact starter instead of Gibson during that offseason. Texas made those moves and won the World Series.
So did the Yankees and they missed the playoffs completely.
We had two top 5 starters. We had top-end pitching. They didn't pitch well. It happens.
Acquiring another starting pitcher would have guaranteed nothing.
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1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:
We did that last season and then got destroyed in our opening round of the playoffs because predictably our starting pitching wasn’t strong enough.
Will you be satisfied with a similar result this season?
We had two of the top 5 starters in the AL going into the playoffs. We lost because they pitched poorly. Not because they were poor pitchers.
Teams don't win 100 games without high-end starting pitching.
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1 hour ago, Philip said:
Grayson is only 24, and he has only 184 innings on his arm. He would hit free agency when he’s 29 which means that in the best of all possible worlds he’s got another four years or so. Given how rare excellent pitching is, I think giving him a 10 year extension right now is great. It expires when he’s 34, and if he turns into Justin Verlander, he can get another big contract, but if he only puts up 3WAR per season between now and then, he’ll still get a huge contract.
I think Gunnar is the guy to extend from among the list(although I agree with all the arguments about Adley )but Rodriguez is the most important guy to lock down.
also, he has been in the system, longest, and signing him to an extension will send a meaningful signal to the other guys.
Correct me if I'm wrong, and it's been said a couple times in this thread, but we have Grayson for 5 more years AFTER this one. He didn't get a full year of service time last year and won't be a FA until after 2029.
IF he turns into Justin Verlander, it would be really beneficial to sign him an extension asap.
However, almost any other outcome, an extension does little for the Orioles. That we have to resort to the supposed psychological advantages it would supposedly grant, I think is pretty good evidence of that.
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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:
Sure.
To give an Orioles example, picking up Andrew Miller is a move that is going to be disproportionality valuable in the playoffs. Sure he's great to have during the regular season but he's worth even more in a playoff environment.
I don't really buy that.
The only reason a guy like MIller adds excess value in October is because you're going to use him differently. If you were willing to use him like that in May, he'd be every bit as valuable then.
I think you could argue a top heavier team might have an advantage over a more balanced one in the playoffs all things being equal, but I don't think you can correlate that to big free agent signings or "flashy" off-season moves.
I'm about to respond to another post here, but people will look at the O's last season and say they didn't have an "ace" and that's why they lost in the playoffs.
If you actually examine the claim it's pretty silly. Nobody wins 100 games without some top-end starting pitching. The O's had two guys who were basically top 5 AL pitchers in the second half of last season. They lost in the playoffs because one of them pitched ok, and one of them got bombed.
We've all appreciated Burns so far, but there's nothing stopping Burnes from getting bombed in the upcoming playoffs.
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8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
While I do agree with you to an extent you can certainly make moves that are more targeted towards winning in the playoffs over making the playoffs.
They might not work, but you can make the attempt.
Are their ways to make your team better in October that don't manifest in April-September?
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Just now, Can_of_corn said:
You predicting any rings?
At this point that should be the goal.
The playoffs is extremely volatile.
This isn't the NBA or even the NFL; the best team doesn't win all the time, or perhaps even most of the time.
So long as they are annually good enough to win the AL East, there really can be no rational critique of their approach.
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4 minutes ago, interloper said:
Full agree here.
David Rubenstein =/= spending $2-300 million dollars on a player suddenly. Delusional to think that, IMO.
Here's my prediction:
We're going to win ~ games this season and ~100 games next season.
And in between, in the next off-season, this board will have several meltdowns bemoaning the lack of FA signings.
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Just now, Sanfran327 said:
Correct. Or worse, he could be Tim Lincecum, who was a generational pitcher with an incredibly short shelf life. Well, only worse if we extend him early and he breaks.
Exactly.
We've got him for the entirety of his 20s. There's no need to guarantee him anything into his 30s, and it would only really work out in favor of the O's if he has a borderline HOF career.
I like him; I don't like him that much.
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2 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:
Exactly. I had this same internal dialogue today, actually. He could break over the next 5 years, or he could be worthy of extending. Either way, that's not a today problem. Just let him be for now.
There's very little upside to a Rodriguez extension for the Orioles, unless Grayson becomes a generational pitcher.
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3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:
How would you feel about extending Grayson?
Why?
We already have him controlled for the next 5 years.
How long of a commitment do you want to make to him?
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2 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:
I also think this topic/poll is incomplete without Grayson being included. Certainly an argument for locking him up first.
I think that would be a pretty hard argument to make. We have him cost-controlled for five years AFTER this one.
That's plenty for a pitcher.
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I don't think they'll ever spend BIG on pitching. It's just too volatile and risky. I also don't think they'll spend BIG on any FA.
There 100+ million contracts, the few of them they do hand out, will almost exclusively go to homegrown guys.
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I get that Adley is older and probably won't have as long a career as Gunnar or Holliday, but I chose him for a couple reasons:
1) He will already be in arb 1 next year. He's the closest to FA and the closer you get the more incentivized you are to test it out rather than extend. If we don't extend him after this season, we'll lose more and more leverage.
2) I think he's underrated. I don't think traditional stats like WAR can fully evaluate his true value. This team was a historical pit of disaster before Adley showed up; since then over two years and three seasons, they've basically been 100 win team. That isn't ALL Adley, but there's something to that.
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9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Vegas has bets on fWAR?
Hell, I'd imagine you could find any kind of prop bet in Vegas.
You can bet on if the 11th man on the Wizards gets three or more rebounds on any given game, I'm sure you can find prop bets on WAR.
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3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
3.7. Book it Dano!
If you feel that strongly about it, take it to Vegas, because that would be a nice little payday.
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14 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:
I am pretty sure Mantle's problem occurred in the Minors. He wanted to quit and his Dad chewed him out.
Yes, Mantle got sent down in 1951 during his first year after a double header in which he struck out 5 times. His father met him in AAA, which was Kansas City as I recall.
Mantle started to "cry" to his father that he didn't think he could cut it in the bigs, and is father pulled out his suitcase and started packing it for him, saying, "If that's what you think, I'll take you home and you can go to work in the mines."
Needless to say, Mantle stayed and the rest is history.
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1 hour ago, Malike said:
The sky is falling here more than anywhere else when it comes to the Orioles. I'm not surprised either, but I'm not going to pretend that people here are more intelligent.
Well, the winning has drawn a less informed fan base imo, but it's still far superior to Twitter.
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
Have the same poll up on twitter.
So far, with 79 votes, it’s 51% under , 49% over.
So, OH i more pessimistic so far.
Surprising result to me.
As one who took the under, I'm not surprised that the OH seems to have better judgment than Twitter.
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11 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:
I like this game!
Grayson Rodriguez 27 Wins 216 IP 243 SO
Corbin Burnes 18 Wins 208.8 225 SO
Craig Kimbrel 72 IP 45 SV 126 SO
It's all fun and games until:
Jackson Holliday: .077/.040/.117 36 runs 9 RBI 9 H 9 BB 225 Ks (-) 3.6 rWAR
Austin Hays: .136/.073/.210 18 Runs 18 RBI 27 H 27 BB 199 Ks (-) 9 rWAR
Jackson Holliday 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted
That doesn't match the eye test of anybody who has watched him.