Pickles
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Posts posted by Pickles
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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I could see that. I personally think it’s rather obvious that Cowser is a superior defensive OFer compared to Hays but I also think it’s possible you consider LF harder in OPACY compared to CF, so they could view Cowser being the better fit there
I'm not sold on that right now.
I think Cowser has superior traits- he's faster at least.
But Hays' arm is a real weapon, and while he has a strong arm, Cowser is not nearly as quick or accurate delivering the ball as Hays.
Same with range. Yes, Cowser is faster but Hays takes more direct routes.
Cowser is certainly a lot better than he was last year, and if he continues to improve he should eventually surpass Hays, but I'm not sure he's there yet.
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27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I think there will be a platoon and I think Cowser may see some more CF time.
I think Hays will see more CF time than Cowser.
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26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I think Hays will be fine. I don’t think he’s just completely lost his game.
But I also am not willing to dismiss the possibility that he has. He is a little older (not old, just older) and he has had a lot of injury issues. That can catch up to you and some times, there is no warning sign of it happening.
Sure. Anything's possible.
However, it's extremely unlikely that Hays has reverted from essentially an average regular to a 5th OF in his age 28 season.
And discussing that possibility is a world away from the laughable claim that McKenna is better than Hays.
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53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I tend to agree that Hays should get the at bats over McKenna because he has better instincts and because Hays the track record of being a solid everyday player.
That being said, he has truly been a below replacement level player for half a season with no signs of improvement this year. (He did have a good 90 PA stretch in August/sept of last year though)
For me, Hays should get the at bats and McKenna should play a small role. I would send down HK because they are foolishly not playing him enough.
That said, if Hays continues to be a liability for another 100-200 at bats, a real discussion has to occur on what to do with him and if he is relegated to a 4th/5th OFer role, I do think there’s a conversation to be had about who is better suited for that role..McKenna or Hays.
But a lot of things need to happen before that discussion can really be had.
I personally believe Hays will be fine and with Cowser now established, Hays won’t be playing everyday, which he never should have been doing in the first place. That may help him a lot.
I don't really disagree with any of this.
I am probably more confident than you are though that give Hays 100-200 at-bats and he's going to perform pretty close to how he has the last 3 years or so, which is far beyond anything McKenna could dream of.
But I don't have a problem with McKenna as a 5th outfielder, playing very sparingly, as I would like HK to get more consistent playing time in AAA.
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9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
Well, you must think that Hays has been performing great since the second half of last year then. Glad we could clear that up.
I know you hate it when people put words in other people's mouths. I know that's a pet peeve of yours.
Glad you're not a giant hypocrite or anything, desperately flailing, ever more and more desperate, to defend a terrible take.
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Just now, Moose Milligan said:
@Sports Guyand I show stats. You're like "uh, yes he is."
Super convincing there. I'll concede that McKenna doesn't have enough at bats to make a full comp, but I'd rather give him at bats instead of Hays.
If you can't at least see how bad Hays has been since last year, there's really no reason to keep replying to you.
Cherry picking stats to make your argument is not as convincing as you think it is.
Again, no person with the most elementary understanding of baseball, would give at-bats to McKenna over Hays.
I'm starting to realize the problem.
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10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
Uh, no. No he isn't. There's at least a case to be made that McKenna could be better. Hays has probably been the worst player on the team since July of last year.
Not having an aneurysm, but way to address anything I wrote in my previous post. Like, you just ignored it all and come back with "bro, Hays is way better than McKenna" which makes me wonder if you read anything at all.
If you think Hays is way better than McKenna, prove it.
Uh, yes he is.
And any argument to the contrary is a stupid one not based in reality.
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That sucks, Frobby.
At least you threw your phone away. That's annoying, but it beats some dirtball stealing it and making money on it. Or worse with your data.
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1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:
Well, I never said anything about preferring McKenna in my previous post. I just said I didn't miss watching Austin Hays play and then you just had to ask if that meant I preferred watching McKenna. What made you assume that I'd think such a thing, I'm not sure.
You should know that Hays going down and McKenna coming up doesn't mean that McKenna is all of a sudden taking Hays' at bats full time. No, it means more playing time in LF for Cowser and McKenna is the last outfielder playing as a defensive replacement and maybe getting a start once a week. That's it. That's as far as I thought it through.
But since you just had to ask and make me think about it, I think I'd actually watch McKenna full time over Hays right now and I don't have to think twice about it.
@Sports Guybeat me to it, but Hays has been so spectacularly bad that McKenna has outperformed him since the All-Star Break last year to present day. Similar stats to what SG showed, I ran them from the ASB last year...of course, McKenna is a part time player so we can't say for certain if he'd be able to replace Hays full time, but he'd have to be really pathetic to be as bad as Hays has been:
Hays: .209/.275/.335 for a 69 wRC+ . -1.58 in WPA.
McKenna: .275/.339/.431 for a 116 wRC+. -0.22 in WPA.
Unfortunately fangraphs or bbref doesn't spit out WAR for the amount of time you want to look at, but I can't imagine Hays is in the positive since the ASB last year. He's certainly in the negative for 2024. McKenna probably isn't.
I get it, McKenna is kind of a doofus and the board's whipping boy for no good reason. I mean, the dropped ball in Fenway, last year, whatever. He's a 4th or 5th outfielder, I'm not trying to pretend that he's anything more than that. But even if McKenna took every day at bats from Hays, I don't know if that'd necessarily be a bad thing.
So actually, thanks for your question. Yeah, I think I'd prefer to watch McKenna over Hays right now. At least, I'd like to see if McKenna could be as miserable as Hays has been since mid-July last year...that'd actually be pretty hard to do.
I'll leave you with this: even Mateo has actually been better in every slash category than Hays in the same amount of time since the 2023 ASB: .231/.283/.388 for a 87 wRC+
Bro, I asked a question.
Hays is way better than McKenna.
Don't have an aneurysm.
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5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
Well you bring the best out in me. What can I say?
Yeah, it's my fault I asked a simple question and you immediately, ironically, accused me of "jumping to conclusions" and go nuclear on me.
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
Honestly, since July 1 of last year, is Hays a better player?
Personally, I’m looking forward to Hays getting back because I do think we need another righty bat with his upside but if he continues to be bad, which has been the case for most of the last 300+ at bats, they may need to have a real conversation about him.
How well Hays plays will determine his role. I expect him to play a lot better than before he got hurt.
But there's no good argument to be made that McKenna is a better option.
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2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:
I don't think I recall saying that, but if that's the conclusion you're jumping to....I mean, that's part of what you do, take things people say, twist them around and then take them and run. Or play a semantics game. So I'm assuming that's what you'll do here.
But, just to be difficult, yeah, I'd rather watch McKenna. Hays has been harder to watch going back to the 2nd half of last year.
First of all, I'm not a McKenna fan but I think he gets a lot of unwarranted flak around here. Like, he's a perfectly fine 4th or 5th outfielder. Yeah, he's a bit of a doofus but it's not a big deal. It's as if people are still holding a grudge against the dropped flyball in Fenway last year and it's just absurd.
He's not great, but he's not completely awful, either.
No, I don't want to watch Hays. I'd rather see Cowser in LF, Mullins in CF and Santander/Kjerstad in RF. And if that means McKenna gets a little bit more playing time, so be it.
Wow, a simple question was enough to get your panties in a wad, wasn't it?
Let me posit instead that a simple question was enough to reveal how stupid what you said was, and instead of just copping to it, you decided to feign outrage, and then double down on the moronic take. Way to go. You're a superstar.
Anybody who wants to see McKenna play over Hays is actively wanting the Orioles to be a worse team. So yeah, it's a stupid take.
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58 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I think I can honestly say I've been watching Orioles games for the past week and a half and never not once thought "Man, I sure do wish Austin Hays was playing right now."
You'd rather watch McKenna?
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2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
What’s funnier than Branch Dickey making fun of people who think they know something?
Branch Dickey is classic. Well struck.
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31 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
Oh great, Pickles and RZNJ. I'm out!
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12 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:
Why would Cleveland do this?
To turn bp pieces into an everyday player.
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7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
Why wouldn't we do it?
Giving up a potential everyday player, who projects to have 30+ hr power, for volatile relievers sure isn't a value play.
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:
I’d guess Kjerstad. He’s optionable and is getting little playing time anyway.
That's what I would think as well. It is the LHH for the RHH though and McKenna is obviously the least valuable player, but that makes the most sense. Hays starts against all LHP, and depending on how he hits, a certain number of RHP, and McKenna is 5th OF/defensive replacement for Santander.
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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I think it's a team wide strategy that was put into place.
I wouldn't be shocked to see them go Rocky 2 at some point.
I agree with this.
I don't think they'll suddenly "change" strategies, but I expect them to alter their strategies from series to series.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
https://www.masnsports.com/blog/hays-beginning-injury-rehab-assignment-at-double-a-bowie
Based on how the O’s handled Mullins last year, I’d expect Hays back with the O’s by this weekend.
Who goes for him?
McKenna's comported himself well. He might well get claimed.
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46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Burnes is the best pitcher, so him.
This.
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1 minute ago, Malike said:
He's had two save opportunities this year, he's got 1 save. Sure he's the best option, I agree, so we can stop using data and just feelings. Cano for closer, 2024.
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A small sample size of save percentage.
That is one data point.
Who is the better option then?
Use the data.
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Just now, Malike said:
Closers typically have swing and miss stuff. When your closer pitches to contact, bad things can and often do happen. Cano had 14 save opportunities when Bautista went down, he had 8 saves.
Did he pitch his worst ball last season because it was in the 9th, or did he just happen to be pitching his worst ball at that point in the season?
I'm going to need a bigger sample size.
He sure just looked fine in the 9th right there, in a much more difficult save situation than is typical.
He's leading the league in ground ball %. He strikes out plenty of guys in conjunction with that.
I seem to recall a guy named Brittong was a great closer without top end "swing and miss."
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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:
I think Hyde is learning how to best use Kimbrel as he goes. I think he’s going to really have to baby him to get the dominant performances and avoid the scary ones.
There's not a perfect answer, but avoid back to backs seems to make the most sense.
Austin Hays 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted
You can cut up people's numbers to make them look better or worse than they actually are, but that's not really good analysis.
He basically had a horrific July last year. His Aug/Sept OPS was basically 775, which was actually higher than his OPS on the season.
Nobody can deny he had a terrible start to this season as well, but you're talking less than 50 ABs and the likelihood that he was probably playing hurt.