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ChosenOne21

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    This team is so resilient

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, SteveA said:

    As others have pointed out, it's mathematically possible because the Braves and Orioles have a vast difference in # of games scored first.   Best record is based on %, but when the denominators are different, we could have a better % in both categories and yet a worse % overall.

    Here's a totally made up example of how that could happen, with easy fractions so the concept shines through:

    Team A has played 100 games.   They have scored first in 30 games and won 27 of those (90.0%).
    Team B has played 100 games.   They have scored first in 70 games and won in 61 of those (85.7%).
        So team A is better when scoring first:  90.0 > 85.7

    Team A has scored second in 70 games and won 35 of them (50.0%).
    Team B has scored second in 30 games and won 14 of them (46.7%).
       So team A is better than team B when scoring second:  50.0 > 46.7

    But overall:
    Team A has won 27 + 35 = 62 of 100 games (62.0%).
    Team B has won 61 + 14 = 75 of 100 games (75.0%).
        Team B has an overall better record:   75.0 > 62.0.
     

    This is called Simpson's Paradox for those interested.

    Givens DFA'd

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

    Had a feeling it was coming. Glad they aren't going to waste time trying to fix him at this point in the season. Wonder if he accepts the assignment?

    I'm sure he won't if any other team will put him on their ML roster. O's made it pretty clear they won't.

    Could Elias call up our 19-year old SS phenom?

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, Malike said:

    If Jeter played average defense he'd probably have been the greatest to play the position. Using DRS/UZR and Range Rating, Jeter was easily one of the worst defenders of his generation. He cost his team 152 runs from 2003 to 2014. Even when he was a "gold glover" his DRS in those years was -92. He was really bad at SS. His fielding % was good, but that's a terrible way to judge as we all know.

    I know. Wild, man.

    Could Elias call up our 19-year old SS phenom?

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, brucewayne said:

    Hanser Alberto couldn't hit. He is a career .269/.292/.390

    He could in his, admittedly short, prime from 26 to 28. He hit .305, .283, and .270. League average BA those years was .252, .245, and .244.

    Standard deviation on BA is about 0.20, so each 0.20 above average is ten points on the scouting scale.

    So for those three years Alberto's hit tool was roughly a 75, a 70, and a 60.

    But he wasn't valuable in two out of three of those years because he didn't do anything else well.

    We have to win the World Series

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, brucewayne said:

    It has to happen this year or within the next handful of years while the window is open. Got to go for it. Grab the bull by the horns and win it all. In the mid 2010s we were a solid team, but I never got the feeling that we had the talent to win it all. This team can do it and more talent is coming. It's got to happen otherwise I might die without ever seeing an Orioles victory. I wasn't born until 1986. I have never experienced victory.

    Dude, I'm a year older than you. Relax. We've got decades.

    Givens DFA'd

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted · Edited by ChosenOne21

    My guess is they didn't like what they saw in the rehab appearances and figured why not see if anyone signs him so they can at least recover the pro-rated portion of league minimum salary.

    Ryan Mountcastle 2023

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    2 hours ago, banks703 said:

    Not so. He’s never demonstrated this selectiveness, not even during his minor league career.

    There is always the potential for regression to the mean so I’m not ready to declare that he has “fixed” himself but he’s showing a very clear difference in how he is attacking pitches since he came off of the IL. I don’t expect him to hit .400 with a 1/2 BB/K but if he can maintain this approach, he’s going to be a difference maker. I’ve stated multiple times that, to me, this has been his best stretch of hitting during his professional career. I’ll happily take less homers from him if it means more doubles, more hits to right field, more walks and more pitches per plate appearance. 

    I have no idea how to look this up, but I'd be surprised if he hasn't been this selective over 50 PAs somewhere in his career.

    1 hour ago, Ripken said:

    Look at the BB below.  Down and/or away is exactly how you got him out many times over the last two years.  It looks to me like he's moved a little closer to the plate and it's clear his approach is to work away.  Those things are obviously related.  I'm sure he's worked on pitch recognition, both type and location.  Here, he swung at the first pitch and took the next five.  If he can continue laying off the outside stuff and working right-center, a BIG IF for sure, he's going to have a nice career because his hands are power are elite. 

    I wouldn't give him too much credit. Four of those were nowhere close, and yes, while he's swung at pitches like that before, I'm not ready to call him Joey Votto yet either.

    I would love nothing more than for Ryan Mountcastle to hit like this forever, but he's got a track record of looking good for a month before becoming, well, Ryan Mountcastle again. I'll start hoping and getting a little excited if he does this for the rest of the season.

    Hays' CF Defense

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted · Edited by ChosenOne21

    I've always said Hays would be one of the best 4th outfielders in baseball. If we have three outfielders better than him, we're pretty blessed. That said, he's definitely not of the defensive replacement/pinch runner/backup centerfielder mold, though I think he could be adequate in CF for a short stretch in case of injury.

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