LookinUp
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Posts posted by LookinUp
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I agree that Miller would cost a lot in a trade. I also see his arm as a ticking time bomb.
I don't agree that Basallo is anywhere near on the table for him.
Based on that article posted earlier in this thread, guys I could see being interesting would include:
Position Players: Bradfield, Horvath, Beavers, Fabian, Etzel, Willems, Tavera, Sosa, Liranzo, Arias, etc.
Pitchers: a sweetener/headliner could include Bright, DeLeon, Weston, Chace, Sharkey (many here depending on the role in the trade)
The point is that you could still put together a very attractive package for a team targeting 3+ years from now to win without including Basallo or any of our AAA guys.
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4 minutes ago, interloper said:
Playing catch is better than being fully shut down. If there was something more serious, he wouldn't be playing catch. I think they're probably continuing to test the level of inflammation to determine when to start ramping him back up? Just guessing.
There's also no rush to fire him back up, so you might as well take your time with it.
Exactly, if he had a UCL or labrum tear, they'd know by now and he'd likely have been shut down longer.
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I think Holliday is still the priority. I honestly think his swing was ready for AA/AAA pitchers, but not ML stuff. He has to shorten up. Get to contact first. Get to power later. He was trying to just jump to power and his swing got long. That said, his defense needed work too, so another month+ and my guess is he'll have re-established himself.
I think Mayo started similarly to Holliday actually. Put up some video game numbers early, but struck out a ton and made bad errors. I really think both came out big D swinging and trying to mash the league. That won't play at the majors. You have to walk before you run. I think Mayo's doing that now. He's k'ing less and I haven't heard bad reports about his defense recently, though I could just be in the dark. I can see Mayo getting the Gunnar treatment, but I could also see him forcing his way up earlier.
So Holliday first, but not assuming that Mayo will wait until September.
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I'd rather a thread by Roy saying that we should cut him now. The reverse jinx works both ways, so I think this thread is a biiiiiig mistake.
That said, he was so good this series. Love that for him.
On a broader point, this org does something right that's beyond the talent in the room. I assume it's advance scouting our opponents and preparation, but we're a step above.
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52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Yes..whole career. We are talking about how someone can perform at this level, correct?
Now, you provided something worth discussing.
Blake Snell has made an excellent pro career with poor str% numbers.
He is an exception to the rule for sure. (aJ Burnett is probably another guy)
Do you think Povich has the stuff and ability to be what Snell has been?
And btw, the numbers you are showing are for qualified players only. That makes it a little misleading when you say 50th. 50th is actually at or near the bottom of qualified starters. That isn’t good, just so you know. (We have already proven that math isn’t your strong point here)
Just a reminder that his strike % is what it is with a robot umpire, so it might be safe to assume it goes up a few % in the majors.
That said, 61% is the number for 1 game (I think), so I'd need to know more about his trends. Also, he may nibble more in the majors, lowering that %. So there are unknowns.
His profile is very intriguing for sure. I don't think your focus on strike % is in any way disqualifying, but it's obvious that command/control has been his developmental issue for years, so this all bears watching.
All in all, he's had a nice year so far and seems to be continuing his development well. He also fits excellently at Camden Yards as a LH, so I'm really bullish on this guy.
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My username stinks, but I've had it for 20 years so I just stick with it. Still, I'd like to change it to Bill Boxscore if SG doesn't take dibs.
[Edit: Frobby posted Str%, so I'm good.]
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I think it's not looking great for position prospects so far, though Horvath is playing better after a slow start and Willems is off to another good start.
That said, several pitchers are flashing real upside. They're a long way away, and tons of failed prospects flash upside every year, but if you believe in strength in numbers, it's encouraging on the pitching front.
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Would I overpay for a power closer with control? Yes.
Would Basallo ever be part of that? Absolutely not.
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
“Cash your imaginary check”. Lol
Who knows, maybe he lives in a state without online sports betting, has the means to lay $1,500 on the money line of a baseball game and actually believes that Roy's posting is indicative of the Orioles' performance.
But I kind of doubt it.
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4 hours ago, Yossarian said:
If he's getting 2900 rpm on the slider, that's near elite level spin rate. How is his control? The walks seem a little high, but the WHIP is low so he's not giving up a lot of hits
Like most pitchers with big stuff, I'm pretty sure his command is his biggest issue. Starter upside, but probably a bullpen guy in time. (my opinion)
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11 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:
I told you that your prediction of a Yankees sweep, while killing us at the same time, was the best reverse lock bet I have ever seen.
You are that bad.
You are a good guy, but way way too emotional when it comes to sports.
I didn't fly or drive to Vegas but I did paypal my cousin in MI and bet $1500 on the O's today.
And I will do the same tomorrow. You are that much of an anti lock jinx bet. I would normally tell you to stop posting but like George Constanza, if you hate their chance to win? They likely will win.I've posted here for something like 20 years and don't remember 1 post from Roy that picks a fight with another poster like yours does here.
Make the reverse lock point. Calm down. Enjoy the victory. Cash your likely imaginary check and enjoy the ride.
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He’s not right.
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@Tony-OHhave you had a chance to see or hear anything about Cam Weston yet? Is there real upside or is this an older guy who's maybe more advanced than his league?
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On 4/22/2024 at 2:34 PM, Tony-OH said:
Mordan can hit a little bit but doesn't have a position.
This is disappointing to hear.
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Nolan McLean should have signed.
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10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Was he delayed? Did that hurt his development?
It's my opinion that he was rushed through the minors. It wasn't just about the decision to promote him this year. It was about pushing him so quickly through AA first.
That said, I think it was easily justifiable to handle it like the O's did. I'm not mad about it at all. I just think Holliday never got the benefit of being at a level long enough to work on the nuances of his game, certainly not at 2b, but also to see how others pitched to him after seeing him before.
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Saying all of this, if Holliday gets a hit and a walk tonight and looks comfortable, I'm not necessarily making the change. If he looks totally lost still, I would. Tonight.
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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
No it doesn’t. Needing additional development and being rushed are 2 different things.
And btw, that additional development could happen at this level.
Without getting into the semantics of whether or not he was rushed, I think getting to the major leagues and having better advanced scouts and better players expose your weaknesses can be a very real thing. I think that's part of what's happening with Jackson.
I also think he could identify those weaknesses and work on them in AAA. Not that it absolutely needs to happen there, but that it almost certainly can.
I do think there can be downside to failing miserably, in the spotlight, over time. He's a kid. A prodigy, yes, but still a kid. The O's wouldn't be wrong to figure out how to protect him and help him get over this hiccup.
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4 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:
So who goes when Hays comes back if Heston hits? I also will wonder if Heston gets enough ABs ?
Million dollar question. There are too many good pros to put on the roster. I suppose that's a great problem to have. Maybe they start putting guys who struggle on the DL? lol
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25 minutes ago, Sydnor said:
The projection systems aren’t everything, but ZIPS for example projects Santander to have a wRC+ of 119, Mountcastle 110, Cowser 99, and Kjerstad 98.
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I’m not including Hays in this because I think Cowser has already replaced him, but I do think replicating what Mountcastle and Santander will provide is more difficult than a lot of people think.
1. I'm not familiar with how ZIPS projects prospects versus established pros, but it seems like they dock the prospects a bit. I don't know that though.
2. The broader point is the profile of guys that Elias is going after versus the guys that previous regimes went after. Elias' guys have hit tools and power similar to Santander and Mountcastle, but they tend to have better swing decisions and higher OBPs. That's why I project them to be better. That's why the O's projected them to be better.
With all of that said, it's not like Mountcastle/Santander/Mullins/Hays aren't all under the same tutelage as everyone else at this point. It stands to reason that they can improve in those swing decision areas too, which I agree does make it a closer call.
Then you consider the cheaper contracts of the new guys and it's less close again, IMO.
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45 minutes ago, deward said:
Better than Santander is a higher bar than some people seem to think. HK or Cowser will have had a really nice rookie year if they can accomplish that.
I'm not crushing Santander either, but he's a career .765 OPS guy. It was .797 last year. His only year over .800 was the Covid year. He plays average defense. Not a butcher, but not exactly rangy out there.
Long story short, I think you can get similar power with more OBP from Kjerstad and Cowser with similar defense for Kjerstad and better for Cowser.
So yes, I'd say they'll be better than Santander.
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I will not be shocked if Kjerstad forces himself into the lineup. LH or not, he and Cowser are better than Hays and probably Santander. There will be a timeshare for sure, and it could take a minute, but Kjerstad could be an even better hitter than Cowser.
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19 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
I disagree that he was rushed, he's was and is that good.
I think he can be rushed and also be "that good." Both things can be true.
I'm not trying to crush the kid. I'm just trying to be realistic. He's swimming in deep water right now. I don't think we're really helping him by throwing him to the sharks. I do concede that they could stick with him for another month, he could break out of this and all could be great. I just think doing so pretty much guarantees a guy who isn't great, and might be significantly below average, offensively or defensively on the field during that time. I mean, he's been up 2 weeks and has a -0.5 rWAR.
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2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
This team is good enough to win with Holliday, Norby, or Urias at 2B. I think the thought of staying with Holliday is that he has the highest ceiling by far of the 3. And if you can get him going so that by the end of the season he is ready for "take off", he gives you that one additional weapon that Norby nor Urias are.
IMO, there are several issues with turning to Norby to replace Holliday now.
1) He has no long term place on this team. So you are in effect starting his Major League clock unnecessarily, when he most likely has more value to another org if he stays at AAA and can start his MLB clock on their choosing.
2) What if he struggles? Then what? Do you turn back to Holliday? If he struggles, it may damage his trade value.
3) What if Holliday regains his stroke at AAA? What do you do then even if Norby has managed to do a decent job or even a good job? Do you keep Holliday for the rest of the year?
4) And to me this is the biggest - What is the best use of his value? To be a bench player here long term? Or to be part of a trade that brings the Major League team something that it needs (in the pitching department)?
We know that there will have to be tough roster decisions with this team in the near future. Is the plan to put those off until the offseason no matter what? If that's the plan, you might see a rationale for keeping the status quo. At the same time, I'd be fine with making one or two of those decisions by the deadline.
But let's be honest here, you're talking about the risk with one player (Norby) by making the change I'm saying to make. It's not going to derail the future of this team or even his trade value.
At the same time, I think they're doing Holliday a disservice. He only played 36 games in AA, and half that in AAA, last year. They didn't even give those leagues the chance to adjust to him. I really, honestly, think they've rushed the kid. I think he's showing that he's not ready offensively, or even defensively at 2B. Heck, I think he's overhyped in general even though I definitely see him eventually as an above average 2B and top of the league leadoff hitter. But he's not the uber athlete, big powerful MOO bat that someone like a Gunnar is. He's more of Jeter profile. That's wonderful, but it's not an ARod profile either and Jeter did what he did with 10/10 intangibles.
I think there's more to gain by getting the extra year of service time and making sure he's ready, and I think that way outweighs the risks of losing some value on a guy like Norby.
What is your takeaway from the Yankees series?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I think if things come together for the Yankees, they're close to, but not equal to, us. That's because they should have 2 HOFers in the middle of their order and one at the top of their rotation, plus a better bullpen.
But we have deep depth. By September, 1-9 in the order should be a real threat to opposing teams. Burns, Bradish and Rodriguez as a top 3 can compete with anyone. Plus defense in most positions.
I'd still take us, but my head isn't in the sand about how good things could be for them if things come together instead of fall apart.