LookinUp

I agree that's what it is sold as, but again, I don't agree that it's true. Defensive data is highly questioned by position. The value of OF data vs. a SS's data vs. a catcher's data is huge. Similarly, there's huge differences in FIP, xFIP, etc., that are attempting in different ways to approximate a pitcher's value (performance). Again, they vary widely. WAR is old. It's better than what existed before it, and probably better in the aggregate in general, but at the player level I do not believe it when it says that an individual SS, P, OF, C and DH who are all worth 3.0 WAR are indistinguishable in overall value. That determination takes a closer look at the inputs to make.

All true, that's the goal, but flaws are becoming more apparent over time. WAR isn't going to consistently differentiate meaningfully between a 3.0 and a 3.2 player, IMO, because of the flawed defensive inputs. Either way, it's immaterial here, where one player is essentially "worth" double the WAR as the other player over equal time.

Yeah, the 1.065 OPS will win out. People get caught up on WAR. I don't think that statistic holds the same value in ML circles, particularly when comparing vastly different positions.

I can believe that the bat can eventually click. I also believe he has the worst release of any catcher throwing to second that I've ever seen in competitive baseball.

I have no idea why I'm joining this discussion, but the above post says more about you, @atomic, than it does about @DrungoHazewood, and not in a good way.

I didn't expect you to pull a @DrungoHazewood, go way back in history and find a story of an unknown prospect buried in the dusty archives of minor league baseball and use that against me. It's unfair, really.

Please don't let your petty facts get in the way of my fantasy story. Thanks.

Lol. Pretty much. Really nice year from this kid. It's crazy that he spent the entire year in A-. That would have never happened under the old regime.

Of all the players in this org, Baumann seems to have benefited from Elias and his crew as much or more than anyone. Well, maybe others have too, but their upside doesn't have the ceiling that Baumann's does. Hearing reports like the one from Luke about his #3/4 pitches makes me think we're still in the middle of a real growth curve for Baumann, not at the end. We can only hope.

I think this has everything to do with it. It's not just that the ball flies farther, it's that the ball apparently has less grip. Pitching is about feel in many ways. If you aren't accustomed to the feel of a baseball, you won't execute as well.

I think the splitter is average. He did get 1 k with it.

Only threw 2 so far. They were bad. Needs something slower than a 91 mph change maybe?

Looks like his mechanics change when he throws the slider. Has to be a tell.

I read this thread and feel terrible for all of the guys drafted by the Orioles over the last 20-30 years. It seems like we're doing real player development for the first time I can recall.

Is that good?

Absolutely. I don't think he'd be a particularly hard stash, especially in the NL with as much substituting as they do.

On this point, I'll agree to disagree. lol

I think you have to keep him unless you're convinced he's never going to hit. I'm not high on him, but I actually think it's a no brainer for this org.

His Fangraphs data is interesting to me: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa875055&position=OF A few notes: 1. His game power is 30/40. (I assume that's now/future) 2. His FB% is over 40%. My theory is this could be telling us that he's hitting like a power guy in a LD hitter's body. This could be where a ML ball would make a big difference for him if he's a warning track power guy in AA. 3. His ZIPS 3 year projections have him at 1.1, 1.7 and 1.9 WAR. That's with projected OPS of .654, .693 and .700. So they're not really projecting much in the way of offensive improvement. His value is tied to speed and defense.

I think you have a fair take, but I'm not sure I agree that a .730 OPS in the majors is his profile. If so, I agree that would be more useful. It's currently .685 in AA and .750 at all levels. He has some pretty significant improvement to make to get to .730 at the ML level, IMO.

I get that when you add age, speed and defense, it's a decent profile, but pointing out league average offense in AA is, to me, essentially damning with faint praise. It's fine, but not for a top prospect. I think he needs to hit significantly better to have any significant ML value, and I don't have confidence that's going to happen. I mean, if we're happy with a 4/5th outfielder profile, that's fine. I just think you can find them essentially anywhere.

I was curious what he's been doing lately so I decided to look up his splits. In the last 28 days, McKenna has: 24 games 85 PAs 71 ABs 13 BBs 21 Ks 3 stolen bases 3 caught stealing 9 hits .127 BA .262 OBP .389 OPS 9 total bases I hope the injury rumor was right. He's hit a wall.

When going for biggest loser, fewer wins is most important. They have us by 2 in that column right now. That's where I'm focused.

I think the nightmare scenario is the O's keeping him in hopes that he gets that injury while on our team.