LookinUp

It's a very refreshing article, IMO. Part of it is our organization has the benefit of time. There's no more aggressive approach to prospects that would turn this year's team into a winner, so take your time with these guys and work with them on what's important in the minors. I do like that they're willing to take lumps in terms of wins and losses, or ERA, or WHIP, in the minors. They know that they're essentially asking him to change his approach so he can hopefully have more success moving forward. It's hard to change what has worked for you over the last however many years.

This is about minor league pitching development, but I think it's great reading on the Orioles Talk board. Mods, feel free to move if you'd like. I highly recommend the full article, which is here: https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-minors-keegan-akin-20190807-bgg54gmvqbgi7e5ku63da4scr4-story.html

I basically agree with wildbill. Houston has been able to make those trades because they have a very deep farm system. At the same time, if you can settle on most of your position players, it's easier to trade away prospects. It's harder to trade pitching because you go through so many. It's almost impossible to have too much pitching in any system.

Would be a major pleasant surprise for me. I don't think I loved the pick at the time. It would be awesome if he's a nugget.

How are they similar?

I would give it to Baumann this month as well. He was electric, and it came after a promotion. Really great stuff in July for that kid.

I think you're right, but DL Hall's numbers are borderline ridiculous given his walks. They just can't hit that kid. He must really have electric stuff. He gave up 10 hits in the month of July, and 11 walks.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-velocity-surge-has-plateaued/ The league average fastball last year was 92.8. That's the average. With that said, I decided to look at the top pitchers in baseball (by ERA) just to see if any are sprinkled in there with low fastball velocities. Lo and behold, the #1 pitcher on the list, Hyun-Jin Ryu's average fastball is in the 9th percentile. That is low, but his average is 90.6 MPH, which is apparently at the top of Wells' range. Somehow Ryu's exit velocity (96th) and hard hit % (86th) are near the best in the league. His K% this year is 23% and his BB% is just 3%. That ratio is almost 8:1. Wells' minor league career ratio is 5:1. I went down the list some more. Jose Berrios is 8th, but his FB is right about league average. Kershaw's FB velocity is just over 90, but we all know he has that amazing curve ball. He also sports a 7:1 K/BB ratio. Grienke is 89.8 at this point. He has an 8:1 K/BB ratio. I got that data from this site: I'm guessing it's easier to find more data on fangraphs. I think the story is that it can be done, but the guys doing it the best are really excellent pitchers who still likely have higher average velocity than Wells, and they often have really great secondary stuff. http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+pitching&game_type='R'&season=2019&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&sectionType=sp&statType=pitching&page=1&ts=1564670914126

Yup. That should be the goal of every player development system. The cream will push its way through.

I mean, you can argue that nothing before today matters. The only thing that matters is every day from now on. That leaves out some context when evaluating prospects though. The argument against a guy like this is that we've had him for 4-5 years and he hasn't taken off yet (maybe until now). The general argument for him is that this might be the first time he's pitched in front of really good player development guys. In that context, there's more hope than there might otherwise be.

For what it's worth, I posted his age because I had absolutely no idea how old he was before I looked it up. He could have been 19 for all I knew. I was a bit surprised he was 21.663 years old, so I figured it added to the thread.

What can I say? I saw 21 and 242 days and didn't do the math. Only on this board would someone call you out for something so minor.

Yep. Get many live arms and good player development guys and some are bound to exceed their scouting reports.

Almost 22 years old, FYI.

I'm choosing to believe last year's write-ups over this season's opinions when it comes to this guy. It sounds like his stuff is just now returning to form. I'd still have him high on our prospect list.

Definitely agree. My only point is that he's in his development arc. There's no guarantee that he continues to develop, but there's also no guarantee that he'll stop where he is now. I look at middle relief as his floor, if healthy.

That's why I said this...

Luckily, I didn't. He wasn't 4th OF quality the day I saw him. That's how lost he was at the plate. It's one day though. In the grand scheme of things, it's 100% meaningless.

You understand that this all makes him more valuable, not less valuable, right? If you hold Nunez, you're betting on him. That's fine if that's what they think.

I understand the assessments that he profiles as a back-end reliever more than a starter. All I'm saying is that a great end to this year and an off season where he's able to make his change an average pitch and now he's more like a #3 pitcher than a relief profile.

He was a mess when I saw him. Who knows why? It's entirely possible he was just in a slump, or even that he was trying to fundamentally re-work his swing based on some feedback from the new regime. You just don't know. Luke and Tony aren't that down on him yet, so I'll hold out hope too.

If there's a chance to get a return similar to the Cashner return (or even a little less if we like a kid), you have to take it. He's cheap and hitting HRs. People want that. We happen to have a similar, cheaper, and probably better player in AAA waiting his turn, in addition to Mancini, Davis and whoever is set aside from our OF competition.

Can we turn this into a Nunez v. Mountcastle v. Mancini thread? That would be fun.

Whatever the case, I hope they're going to be careful with the kid.

I agree with Law. Very small chance to stick. ?