LookinUp

So you respect his ability to sign guys off the scrap heap but not his ability to sign a guy for $2-4 million? If Elias thought he could get equal guys off the scrap heap, don't you think he'd just do that?

I very much disagree with the bolded above. I think the problem with extensions for any of our young guys is ownership, not the players. Which means that we likely wouldn't extend Chourio either.

I get your focus on targeting elite-level guys, but your dismissal of Elias' ability to find untapped talent is absurd. The bottom line is that Elias is better at finding guys than you are. He's better than most of the majors are. He's really good. We're lucky to have him and we should defer to him on deals like this one, waiver claims, Rule V guys, etc. That doesn't mean he'll hit 100% or that he shouldn't also go after top flight talent. But to get worked up over guys like Coloumbe or this guy is just silly. You don't know what they saw in these guys. But they see something that you're incapable of seeing (as am I). Just admit that.

Sorry. Stepped away for a few hours and just saw this response. Just to be clear, I was specifically thinking of a pitcher more valuable than Cease. I do not think you give up 3 top 100 prospects (excluding our top 3) for Cease. I think it could take that plus more for a legit guy with more control. Exactly my point. Not sure I worded it perfectly in my original post a few pages ago.

Yup. I get it. That's the problem. This type of move hasn't happened in the context of several other moves. It's always been a stand alone thing that isn't part of a larger list of moves.

A very simple explanation is that this move could happen in the context of other moves, making it perfectly reasonable. Let's say, for example, that the Brewers will do a big trade but they want someone like Irvin or Cano or Coloumbe back in the deal. Now a move like this makes more sense.

You're right of course, and I'm sure everyone would agree, but SG's constant response for the last two decades is that we need to do what it takes to add top flight talent. That means trades AND spending. I'm sure he wouldn't hate the proposed move in this thread if he didn't believe that it's a move that will be made in lieu of getting a real TOR starter, closer or MOO bat. That's the rub. It smells like Frazier and Odor.

I get a feeling that teams want one of our top 3 prospects for a legit starter. We probably don't want to do that, so it becomes a question of whether Elias 1) is willing to and 2) can get someone to bite for a quantity trade involving like 3 of Ortiz, Westburg, Cowser or Kjerstad. Might even need a good 4th/5th piece with like Wagner, Stowers, Norby or some of our international guys. If we offered Cowser, Ortiz, Norby and Wagner, I wonder if we could get a legit #1-2 starter with 3+ years of control.

My understanding is the O's would lose their 3rd highest pick, which is in the 30-34 overall range, rather than their 2nd round pick, which is closer to 60.

That was wild, but you have to give Luke credit. He spoke the right data language. He also did some Rule V pref lists that showed pretty next level analytic capacity. I mean there are a lot of guys in other orgs and he went through the advanced metrics and came up with well-informed pref lists. That's not easy.

I feel like I've been hearing about Basallo forever now. I note that because he's pretty much an elite prospect and he's still only really about to start AA. It just takes a while for these kids to go from babies to grown men that are ready for the majors. I agree with Frobby's note above. I almost don't know what to make of this year's top 30 because on one hand, it's awesome that so many are international. On the other hand, it worries me that they're so young and so far away. A few or more of those 7 will almost certainly flame out. So while I agree that the pipeline will be complete when there's input on one end and output to the majors on the other, I don't feel like it'll be running at full capacity for a couple more years still.

For what it's worth, there are 10 pitchers on the 31-50 list, with several in the low 30's. I feel like there's real upside with our pitching prospects, with a few likely to help at some point in 2024. It's not the strength of the org, but it is starting to bear fruit. I agree though. I'd love 2 upside arms in the top 3 picks this year. I'm not sure that's how Elias will roll though.

No clue. Seems like a few of the arms have a chance to be at least bullpen pieces. Maybe 1/2 becomes a ML starter? Without seeing them much on the field, it's hard to project.

There's a lot of guys in that list who were just drafted and haven't really shown their strengths or warts yet. I feel like there's a fair amount of upside here though. I was pleasantly surprised reading that list. Part of me feels like we're 12 months from being considered a pitching-heavy system, but if Basallo doesn't graduate and a couple of Horvath, Tavera, Liranzo, Sosa, Almeda and Arias really take off, I guess that might not be the case.

I went away for a few days and just caught up with prospects 19 through 30. What stuck out to me in the whole top 30 was two things. First was all of the international prospects. I take that as a positive sign. Second was the list from 21 to 25. A lot of those guys are guys that I had hoped would be much higher. For various reasons, they struggled. So overall, this list looks like it has less depth to me than last year, but with more possible upside from the international guys.

Nice. Brand new name to follow for me.

That trade was a win.

I feel bad for this kid. I guess some are just injury prone. I wonder if it has anything to do with fitness/eating habits, or if it’s genetics.

That’s actually a more promising write up than I expected. Maybe there is still some hope for this kid. I feel like it has to help that he has a single thing that he really needs to work on. You can’t teach the rest, but he has it. You can work every single day on your swing though. So maybe there’s a shot.

Realistic? 1 free agent starting pitcher in the Wacha, Gibson, Giolito range. 1 significant trade for a starter or reliever 1 smaller trade, likely for a reliever. No top name free agents will be signed. Trades could include Mountcastle, Hays or Santander plus Norby, Ortiz, Stowers and 1 of Cowser/Kjerstad.

I still have hope for Wagner, but assume Tony doesn't have him this high. I wanted to vote for him and Baumler. I just don't know enough about the international guys to have any opinion of whether they belong here, so I went Bright and Willems. That said, it seems like Fabian should be above Willems at least, so it was probably a bad vote. If I had to do it over, I'd say Alymeda and Fabian.

I have no idea what to make of this guy, but it's nice that he started getting ramped up before this season ended. On that note, I wonder how different the offseason is for a guy like Johnson, Means and Baumler who didn't just pitch for 9 months. Are they more active throwing or do they drop into the same rest, workout, start throwing around xmas routine as the guys who did play a full season?

If these international guys start to become more prominent nationally, it stands to reason that the Orioles' reputation amongst international prospects who have yet to sign will improve. In theory, the better prospects could choose the O's over other teams moving forward. I know I would if I were them. This group of international guys will be fun to track in 2024.

I feel like a lot of people loved Lord after the draft. Going by memory here. I also doubt Tony has him here, but it's possible the scouts really like him.

I would rather trade Kremer/prospects (not the top 4, and I'd exclude a couple of the international guys) for Cease. I'd also rather just sign Ed Rodriguez. I'd like to do both of those things together actually. But I wouldn't be opposed to this move in a vacuum or as a second move after one of those other two. All of the trade talk, to me, is very hard to process in isolation. There's a lot of moving parts for this team right now. Or we hope/expect there to be anyway. I assume there's a mix of deals that would need to make sense in the end.