LookinUp

Funny. I think a smart, limited, use pattern would result in a better performance. But he knows himself, I'd guess.

You could rank this list a lot of ways based on personal preference. I'd take the ok chance that a guy like Beavers can be a 4-5 win player over the likelihood that Urias will be a good 1-2 WAR utility man. Both are valuable, but if you prefer probabilities, or near term, or organizational positional need, or upside, or just likely total future WAR, you could really have a different opinion. The guys I'd rate higher though are DL Hall, Means, Kremer and Wells.

Only thing I'd say is our prospect for prospect offerings could include a bunch of guys (Cowser, Ortiz, Stowers, Mayo, Norby) that could be considered plug and play major leaguers by the receiving team. In that sense, it's not your typical AA arm for two A level players type of deal.

Nice post. I think he'd definitely be a good target, but expect the O's won't go near what they'd want. You can't jump from Mayo to Norby in what you're offering. Norby would have to be the 2nd or 3rd guy in a deal like this. I think the O's cling to Holliday, Mayo and Basallo, but everyone else is available. I don't think it really makes sense to include a McDermott or Povich in such a deal. I'd honestly think a deal with Cowser could make sense (if they're looking for a bat). Especially if a second piece like Norby or Seth Johnson is included. But these prospect for prospect deals are really hard to make happen. Would SF have interest in Santander or Hays? No idea, but that, plus some prospects, would probably be more workable.

I highly doubt we get ML players that are as valuable as Santander in a trade, so to me it's go for multiple young (e.g., Low A) arms or just not trade him this year. If I'd wager, it would be that Santander isn't traded. They only reason I hesitate on that opinion is I also really don't think they want to trade Hays. I think they value his defense and, frankly, the young guys in AAA have big questions and would likely be a pretty sizable step back in LF at Camden Yards, IMO. If Beavers was ready, I might feel different, but I don't think they want to pencil Cowser into the lineup.

I didn't say it wasn't good to be the best team in the regular season. I'm just saying what happens in the post season should also count for awards purposes. And yes, I think post season performance should be weighed a little more than regular season. That doesn't mean that a rookie who played a month in the majors and goes off in the post season should win the ROY award above someone who put up 6 WAR in the regular season and didn't even make the playoffs, or did and stunk.

I think it's silly to vote on awards that don't take into account the most important games, crapshoot or not, but that's me.

Yeah, wouldn't want to over-credit a team that 1) made the playoffs, 2) were well-prepared for the playoffs and 3) played great in the playoffs. The teams that won the regular season should get all of the awards. That just seems backwards to me that they don't want to over-credit the people who won what is everyone's goal to win.

I was taught that a square is a rectangle, but a rectangle isn't necessarily a square, but can be. Catholic, and other protestant religions, are the square. Christian is the rectangle. Well, that's how I see it at least, considering the first 6 letters of Christian. As an aside, I've read the old and new testament. If you ever do that, for totally non-religious reasons, I recommend skipping the book of numbers.

It's kind of crazy to think that Texas could legitimately contend for each of those awards. When Jung got injured, he was ahead of Gunnar for ROY. Of course, Gunnar came on really strong for the remainder of the year. Bochy is a wizard in the dugout. Perhaps the best in the sport right now. And their front office brought this team together with several splashy moves, supplemented with some really good young guys.

I don't think that. I think over the next few years we'll jettison the entire 2023 outfield and will see an adjustment period throughout the year. To me, that means the team might be worse for 5 months and about as good by the end of the year with the new, cheaper, players. I'd be quite surprised. I do think they get rid of either Hays or Santander this year, the other next year, and maybe Mullins the year after. In that time we should be able to produce three ML outfielders, or sign decent replacements to decent value contracts.

It seems like we finally are beginning to see the fruits of the international program too. With better depth now pretty well established (though not perfect), you have to wonder if that makes us slightly more likely to go for upside over safe. Given the state of our system and major league team now, I figure think they'll continue to build pitching depth for another year or two, or at least be more balanced in that direction than they used to be. I'd personally love to see our top 3 picks be upside pitchers.

According to MiLB.com, he has no stats.

The biggest improvement will need to come from within. It would also be nice to add a big bat. All of that said, I wonder how much validity there is to the post above. A hallmark of Elias' management has been platooning right and left handers. There's a reason for that and it's to be able to create favorable matchups for your team. I don't have any insight on how much of this difference from the norm could be related to that. I doubt it's more than half (just a guess). That said, I do think there's a method to Elias' madness that supports better results in those situations.

The fact is, with expanded playoffs, it might make more financial sense to take on payroll at the deadline than to take it all year. It's a risk of course, but if you get a juggernaut of expensive add-ons just in time for the playoffs, that could be worth a ton.

Man. If those two can re-find the magic they had at Vandy, they'll be a load.

This really is a fascinating thread. You mentioned 9 players without mentioning Seth Johnson, Sam Basallo or Dylan Beavers. All of them could be options by September if they have great years. I know that's not the point of the thread, but what team ever had 12 guys like that within shouting distance of the majors? For what it's worth, I voted for Kjerstad, but feel like Mayo hasn't gotten quite enough love in this thread. I say there's a non-zero chance that he's the guy here on opening day in hopes of getting the ROY award. I'm not betting on that, but if Tony's right about his upside (Kris Bryant was mentioned once as a comp), than why not him?

Do what the Rangers did (probably not deliberately) and give guys a month or two off in the middle of the year. They were starved for pitching a month or two ago. Now they're in the world series on the backs of an awesome offense (which we didn't have) and guys like Eovaldi who didn't pitch the full season.

I'd rather put them where they provide the most value. Starters are usually more valuable than relievers, but not always. I'm not eliminating the idea of him as a starter. His offseason routine should absolutely be in preparation for that. Adjust again if we have to.

Do they do draft order based on what round you were eliminated in? If so, I'd think we're 25 based on this (maybe wrong) logic... 27-30 = final four teams (Texas, Houston, Philly, Arizona) 23-26 = teams eliminated in the division series', in reverse order of record. So Atlanta gets 26, we get 25, Dodgers get 24 and Minnesota gets 23. Is that right?

He's higher on my personal prospects list than he probably deserves. I want to believe in his health because his profile has always been one with the potential to be a solid or better than solid ML starter.

I thought I was! Lol. Some sites list PAs on the left and some ABs. I didn't notice that MiLB uses ABs.

I'm just seeing this oldish post, but figured I'd comment since my comment relates to a separate Jud Fabian discussion. Beavers k'd 26% of the time this year. Cowser k'd 33% of his AAA ABs this year. I'm really questioning Cowser at this point. It's not just about his major league data. He has real contact issues. And without a real plus defensive tool, I'm beginning to think he's closer to Stowers as a prospect than he is to Kjerstad. That said, I'm probably the #1 believer in the importance of a good offseason, so I'm far from giving up. On my personal top 10 list, I think Beavers might be above Cowser at this point.

I really like the Mark Reynolds in-zone contact rate comp...and it doesn't stop there. He walks, he hits for power. Obviously a different defensive profile, and there are few people ever with the power of Reynolds, but it's an interesting comp if we're watching Fabian and trying to see an improvement.

Yeah, I basically agree with your perspective. I just think that if they are still developing, there's reason to think that their prior trade value (whatever that was, but not HIGH) may be eclipsed by a still developing profile that still has 6 years of player control. I just don't think Elias missed out on any great opportunity to trade those guys in the past.