LookinUp

I'm cool with the O's taking an elite athlete who essentially has one hole in his game and trying to fix it. There's no chance the old Orioles would succeed. I think there's a fair chance they can improve the bat skills enough to allow him to be a starter. What I don't get is the folks who compared him to Kenny Lofton when he was drafted. If the O's can improve the bat that much, watch out. This is an incredibly different profile than most of the guys on our list. I think you could argue him in a lot of spots, but #7 makes sense given his upside. His development will be fascinating. I expect it to be non-linear.

I'm surprised by his picture. I've noticed this about a couple of guys (Cowser too), where I expected these COF types to be stronger. I guess that bodes well for his future power, though your notes about him leaking in his swing are clearly the most important thing to fixing that issue. I had honestly expected a more exciting profile for Beavers. Makes me think of him as certainly a tier lower than the Kjerstad/Cowser/Gunnar/Mayo/Basallo/Adley/GRod/Bradish level guys. With regards to total upside, he kind of reminds me of an outfield version of Westburg. A good player who isn't going to set the world on fire, but does profile as a good major leaguer (Tony says 1st division starter, which is great for me).

I think 80% of people would have Cowser at 5 and Ortiz at 6. I'll do the opposite. I have Ortiz above Cowser. He's a plus to plus plus defensive player at two premium positions. I do expect Cowser's bat to ultimately be more productive, but I think he's going to be an average corner outfielder and not much more defensively. Plus the k's really worry me. The power helps a bunch, but I just don't love his contact profile. That said, I'm the #1 believer in offseason development and I'm not sure he has to make a massive change to improve his ability to hit velo. I'm starting to talk myself into him again. Interestingly, these might be the two most likely to get traded this offseason.

Hopefully we don't look back and realize that 2023 was the peak.

By the way, in my post above, I don't mean to imply that command is no longer an issue for McDermott. I assume it is. I just think he improved this year, and maybe even more than is obvious when looking at the numbers.

Oh. In that case I do agree!

You have have to love his athleticism. I'd personally project Beavers/Cowser in LF before him, but you never know what good athletes turn into. We will certainly need some RHs though, which is good for him.

Horvath? I can't disagree. I'd probably pick the int'l guys to rise a bunch too though, especially with many likely graduations this year. That's true for all of them though.

I certainly agree many are interchangeable on this list. There's really good depth. Like I said, I'd actually prefer an international guy or two at 10, most notably (for me) DeLeon. I can't wait for Tony's write-up about him. I assume it'll be conservative. I could definitely be over my skis on him.

2026, when all of Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo and Basallo are established pros. Five studs, with likely 4 additionally first division starters at the other positions. Assumes pitching is mature and relatively healthy.

I really like this guy and think you could make a case for him being as high as 6 in this list (if you're down on Cowser). In the write-up, Tony says "Of course, command of all of his pitches is an ongoing issue for him, as evident from his 5.1 walk/9 though that dropped to 4.3/9 in AAA." As a reminder, AAA had the automated strike zone, so guys weren't getting strikes called that were actually balls. That indicates even more improvement than may be apparent in the 5.1 to 4.3 summary numbers. According to this article, BB rates actually went down when guys moved from AAA to the majors. That seems crazy based on the level of competition alone, so it seems like the automated zone really inflated walk rates in AAA this year.

Interesting write-up. Personally, I fear a pull-happy approach in general, especially with pretty high (not alarming) k rates. But this is a scouting report more so than a report on what he did this year. I think Tony's betting on athleticism and power. I'm cool with that. Hopefully our player development staff can help him use that athleticism and power to become a dynamic major leaguer. As an aside, I'd personally really need to be sold on those physical tools to rank him higher than Norby, who I think is probably a 2nd division starter in the majors, with some upside tied to his hit tool. It's just a preference for safer/closer to ready over farther away with upside. Heck, I'd argue if we went with a pure upside play, there's 1-2 international guys who are younger and showing real upside who have a case here, as does Povich. But it's nitpicking. I'd rank Horvath lower, but it's not like I have any real intel on him or the other guys. I assume Tony does.

I'm with the majority on this one. Beavers (ascending) and Bradfield (toolsy #1 pick). I too am nervous about the ISO for Bradfield, but the floor is decent and the hit tool is actually really good, just not powerful. Could Beavers jump Cowser? While I personally think that Beavers will overtake him in Baltimore some day, I just don't think that he's achieved that status yet. Cowser's still a good prospect, but also with the flaw of whether he can catch up to velo. And if the board's right, Norby/Povich are outside of the top 10. That's just amazing in a good way. I know they have warts, but they're still two really good prospects who will likely spend multiple years on ML rosters, perhaps excelling.

I thought I read that in our amateur forum. I'll take a look.

My impression is that the competitive balance picks rotate between after first and after second round, and this year is the O's turn to get the pick after the first round. So the only unknown is whether Gunnar will win the ROY (he will) and we get a 3rd pick right in that 31-36 range.

It's fair to go with the shorter commitment for sure. I personally voted for Rodriguez because... 1. Gray would cost a draft pick. 2. Rodriguez is LH and doesn't cost a pick. 3. I'm worried Stroman has started to hit the wall. That said, I fully expect the O's to go to the bargain bin for someone, I do not expect them to sign a top 7-10 FA pitcher because of the years or money, so I hope they acquire a top starter via trade.

I think he stays in Japan. I also think he should stay in Japan.

I think the injury risk is higher with Rodriguez. I just think arms only have so many 100 mph pitches in them, and he throws quite a few.

Fair enough. I assumed he would be right there at 7, but if you told me Tony prefers Beavers or McDermott, or even Povich, I wouldn't be shocked.

An historical trade that I think is always worth remembering for those seeing what might work, is: Marlins Trade: Josh Beckett (young stud P), Mike Lowell (expensive, aging good player) and Guillermo Mota (reliever, expensive?), offloaded ~$30 million in future salary Red Sox Trade: Hanley Ramirez (top SS prospect), Anibal Sanchez (mid-rotation starter) + Jesus Delgado (young minor league starter, not sure how highly he was rated) I don't think the O's do this trade. They took on an expensive player and gave up a top prospect and decent starter. But I do think this is how trades like this happen. A similar approach for the O's might include taking on a big salary but sending back a guy like Hays or Santander to offset the cash outlay. For who could I see this happening? Juan Soto. He'd be perfect here, but alas it's almost certainly a pipe dream.

Isn't it also a waste of time to think of the O's extending Burnes? I hate to say it, but I simply cannot see the O's in his market. He'll cost too much for a 1-year rental, and we won't re-sign him.

Several thoughts... 1. I think the top ~7 is pretty clear, in some order. Holliday, Mayo, Basallo, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Bradfield, Cowser. 2. I opted for experience after them. I love Beavers, Norby finished strong, McDermott is looking good, Povich close also. So I voted for Norby and McDermott in this poll. All are AA-AAA. 3. I don't think Willems is in this neighborhood, though he's a good one to watch. Seth Johnson too, for very different reasons. 4. I could definitely see Tony having Tavera or Horvath as his answer. He likes to identify a helium guy and place him at the back end of his top 10. I didn't personally because I sided with experience, but I totally get the approach. 5. Yet again, we'll have a very interesting 9-20 prospect list. Horvath, Tavera, pitchers we just drafted, international guys. Fun people to follow. They haven't necessarily established themselves yet, but could be household names by this time next year.