LookinUp

I remember disliking Bauer, based on his arrogance in interviews, long before I heard anything bad about him. Then I heard this accusation, and assumed the worst. Now I see the texts and his video and will 100% discount anything related to this specific case. It's not ok to set people up. It was pre-meditated. She probably belongs in jail, IMO. But there really are completely unrelated accusations. I don't know the truth, but I still want nothing to do with him without much more exonerating information about those other circumstances.

A few somewhat random thoughts that were spurred by the last couple of pages. 1. I'm not sold on Cowser. I'm hopeful that another offseason will be really helpful for him, but if pressed today I'd probably take Beavers over him. 2. I'm also not sold on Koby Perez. I'm not down on him, but with all of the work that's been done, I'd hope the pipeline was looking more robust by now. I could easily be convinced that it's about to really start bearing fruit next year (beyond Basallo), but I'm impatient. There's a particular pitcher that could change my mind pretty quickly though, so we'll see. 3. Someone made a post about the priority being to build a better organization as a whole. Well, I find it interesting that the championship series in the International League was between the O's and Rays affiliates, and the PCL was between the Dodgers and Rangers. That's a small sample, but it sure seems like org strength up and down contributes significantly to the ML team.

It's pure speculation on my part, and his public comments cast doubt on this, but I feel like success has to lead to payrolls beyond what his initial plan called for.

Good point. Longevity of results probably matters more. You could argue that Elias could leave after we win the WS this year, we win another couple in the next 5 years, and he gets the lion's share of the credit and becomes the best GM in our team's history.

About John Angelos... Yes, he puts his foot in his mouth. Yes he's been very cheap and unnecessarily so. But I think it's fair to think he will raise payroll some over the next few years. He almost has to. It's just a matter of how. If he's somehow able to keep Elias happy and here, and if he does approve a somewhat higher budget, I feel like Elias can make it work. I feel like Elias has set us up for 6-8 years more success after this year already, and I think he'll extend that window every year he stays. And that success means more $$$ for Angelos. His plan is working. So Angelos isn't the worst ever. In fact, he chose this direction and these leaders. He's just not willing to go all in on it. Could be worse. Just look at his father's entire tenure.

4-4 in a championship game. Got to love this kid.

You do realize that you're undermining your point in your own post, right? I get the you don't "have to" tank for so long argument, but by "it's harder" you're actually saying that the probabilities are lower to get those players when you don't lose a lot, which means tanking helps. Anyway, it's an old discussion that really isn't relevant now. Great job by Elias, Hyde and the boys. I love this team. Last night's game, with like 4 weird/close plays at 1B involving the pitcher, was just another example of a team that just seems to have that "it" factor.

Put me in the "it takes longevity" camp. I love what he's doing though. I really love that we have two top 30ish prospects in baseball that weren't top picks (Mayo, Basallo), and I love that Bradish is a stud, Felix, Cano, Gunnar...just a lot of examples of why we're good even without the top overall draft guys (who are also good to say the least).

For what it's worth, BBRef has their WAR at: Bradish: 4.8 Grayson: 0.9 Adley: 4.2 Gunnar: 6.2 Felix: 3.0 Gibson: 0.6 Santander: 3.0 Hays: 2.6 Mullins: 3.0 Cano: 2.4 Kremer: 1.2 Coulombe: 1.4 Mountcastle: 1.9 O'Hearn: 1.4

It looks like McDermott wasn't available for the international league championship series, unless I missed it. Hopefully this is a minor injury. I love his development this season.

I misread this originally as you saying that Tanner Scott was going "nowhere," as in as a player rather than being released. Lol. Anyway, Tanner Scott is worth 3.3 WAR according to BBREF this year. Lol. So I *think* that means you were right. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scottta01.shtml

I wonder if offensive numbers go up in general in AAA at the end of the season. Just about every team adds a pitcher to their roster in the majors, and I'd assume all or most come from AAA, but I'm not sure that's enough alone to account for end of year hot streaks like those by Stowers and Norby.

The conventional wisdom, which really doesn't have to be true, is teams don't trade minor leaguers for minor leaguers, but I think you're proposing something different. You want to trade guys who can be major leaguers this year for minor leaguers. It should absolutely be in the cards. They have value (6 years service time, some talent, pedigree of playing in this org). And they're likely better than at least some major leaguers. The issue with doing this is you're not trading Jackson Holliday, you're trading non top 100 prospects, so the value you get back is likely younger and lower rated. That's ok though. Target guys with our metrics, get as many guys as possible back, and hope a few develop. This would be different than trading a guy like Fabian for a low A ball pitcher. That seems more rare, and less likely, but I'm just going by impressions.

If the goal is to feature the studs, I can see an infield of Mayo, Henderson, Holliday and Basallo on opening day of 2025. What happens on the way is anyone's guess.

Not biased, just nerds who aren't very good at what they're doing, as far as I can tell. Tampa's run differential since May 1 is +93. The Orioles is +98 by my quick count. The O's advantage is much larger if you look at post all star break. There's a million ways to look at these statistics. They seem to pick one and stick with it while ignoring all of context. As someone who's been involved in a research paper or 50, I can tell you that the art is in controlling for all of that context. The problem is the cutoffs are often arbitrary. One year's cutoff might be much more relevant than another year's. That's especially true in sports where injuries and fatigue might have an outsized effect on probabilities. Luckily, they play the games on the field and our O's are hopefully a week away from winning the division and league regular season title.

I don't remember 83, so my first real memories start right around 0-21 and then "Why Not." Fast forward to the Davey era in the 90's and eventually to Buck's era. All were really fun, just like this one. What I think will eventually set this apart is the staying power. See this tweet, which I I think has some truth to it (though we've certainly seen some of that potential realized already). This might be the closest this organization ever gets to repeating the Brooks years.

My post was about the law of averages. That said, there are a few guys I like a lot to move up. DeLeon is the big guy to watch from below 15 in Tony's power rankings from what I understand. Just going by what I hear, I could imagine Tony giving him a big bump in his offseason list. I really look forward to what he writes because it's hard for fans like me to distinguish between hype and reality. Just looking at his list, the problem I have is many of the ones I like are either really young or new to the org, so they have a ton to prove. That's the law of averages part. A couple will likely be top 15 guys. DeLeon and Baumler (who I hate to give up on) are my two personal favorites who seem to have the upside to be top 10 guys if they have healthy years. Here are my personal favorites after 15. 17 Braylin Tavera CF 17 FCL O's 19 Jackson Baumeister RHP 19 FCL O's 20 Luis DeLeon LHP 20 DEL (A) 21 Keifer Lord RHP 21 FCL O's 22 Luis Almeyda CF 22 DSL O's 23 Trace Bright RHP 23 ABN (A+) 29 Carter Baumler RHP 29 DEL (A)

I don't see it that way. I think there's real upside with international guys and newer drafted guys lower on the list, they just have a long way to go. They may never pan out, but a few will almost certainly end up with better profiles than many of our top 15 now.

I agree with all of this. For those reasons, I'd rate McDermott above Povich, but the LH profile with really good stuff and 20 month age difference makes it close for me.

It feels like Povich and McDermott will continue to develop and push their way into our staff at some point next season. I'm excited about both of them. It's ok that neither are elite prospects. Both can be very good ML pitchers, IMO. They give me Bradish vibes in terms of under the radar prospect status with the potential to be very good at the next level. It just takes a little time and consistent work.

I'm under the impression that he played where the team needed him. Versatile kid, but probably played OF because there were better infielders, not because he couldn't play infield.

This is worded correctly, but I'm not sure everyone quite picks up on the nuance. (Many probably won't care. ) Means will start today as part of his rehab. The O's have to end his rehab by Saturday. At that point he can either be in Baltimore or he can be placed on the AAA team and continue to pitch there. So yeah, his rehab has to end, but that doesn't mean he has to pitch for Baltimore when it's over. I assume he will. Just a chance of him being formally assigned to the minors instead.

He should have a very short leash. I think there's a fair chance we put him into waivers assuming he will not be claimed by competitors, put him in AAA and hope we can fix him by next year. I say he has max 2 weeks before he shows out or is sent out.

Yeah. I actually see very little reason outside of a cold spring to start him in Aberdeen. If I were running things, my plan would be to start him in Bowie. He might be the type of guy to show up in Sarasota and just wow everyone and make that decision easy. That's more likely to me than him looking like a good but not great guy who needs more time in Aberdeen.

James McCann is under contract for another year, with the Mets paying a large amount of his salary. My guess is that he will get the backup catcher spot for next year. After that, will Handley have developed enough to take over that job? I do see some glimmers of hope, but there are plenty of storm clouds about his prospect status too. I do think we could do worse. I like that Handley is being afforded an opportunity to work a lot in AAA on his full game, but he better work. There are others working their way up through the minors, also with their own issues (minus Basallo) who would love to be ready in 16 months to take that job.