LookinUp

O's have this nerdy reputation, but this guy is a good old southern dude, who's also probably a nerd in disguise. It's awesome.

Oh he was, but I feel like he was the dude just implementing PA and Buck's plan. I could be wrong. If I am, it reflects worse on him, IMO. [Edit, because he wasn't also focusing on getting draft assets and improving player development (effectively, at least) in a way that would help us not to be totally screwed when the money turned off.]

I think there's a feeling that Baker turned a corner toward the end of last season. With his plus arm, there's some drooling over what he could be in the bullpen.

As to Duquette, I feel like he was almost a non-factor as a GM. He had no authority. Consider: Angelos/Buck were in win-now mode. Corresponding trades were made and Buck was great at playing for today to win games. Duq couldn't spend or build internationally. Duq couldn't replace a lot of the old-school holdovers in the scouting and player development departments. I'd think any GM would love the free reign that Elias has been given to develop an org in his own image. Duquette didn't have that. If there's anything I do think he could have done though it's to try to build a unified, modern, player development system. Maybe he really had no power over minor league personnel, IDK, but it was a problem when he got here and it was an elephant in the room type of problem when he left.

twss

Yeah, last year there was supposedly a dead ball. Will that be the case this year? The shift and pitch clock will change things, but I'd expect the different ball (if it is) would have a bigger effect. And if that happens, our 4/5 starters don't look as good as they did last year.

Wonderful stuff. With better placement of the slider and sinker down in the zone, I think it would stand to reason that his average 4s fastball might play better up in the zone than before. With the development of the rest of his arsenal, do you think that 4s FB can play up "as is" or does he still need to work on tweaking it to be an effective change of eye level?

I remember seeing Sharlon Schoop in Bowie once. He was a physical standout. Strong. Fast. Smoked the ball a couple of times. I went to the phone to see who he was and realized he was something like a 26 year old basically non-prospect. I was shocked because he popped out in my very brief eye test.

Some random speculation on Twitter that Urias and Tate not being on the teams means they're being traded.

I think Urias is over rated. He had a .305 OBP and 103 OPS+. He plays a nice 3B, but I'd characterize him at best as an average starter on an average team. On a good team, he should be hitting toward the bottom of the lineup.

You know what I mean.

To me, DD was what my kids would call a NPC. Nonplayer Character. International free agents? Nope. PA won't allow it. Build your team? Buck will pick his guys. Resign your own guys? Nope, PA wants Davis, Hardy, etc. Let Machado go. Draft? That's Rajsich's job. Player development? Go ahead, but you don't know what you're doing. I feel like DD was probably a net negative or neutral at best. He wasn't Sid Thrift, but he's not half the GM that Elias is.

Statistically, I absolutely agree. But I saw a kid who settled down a bit and started pitching. It wasn't immaculate, and the stuff wasn't as advertised, but my eye test saw a better pitcher after those first few outings. With all of that said, he'll have to do it over time, longer appearances, etc. No doubt that's correct.

The Reimold comps start and finish with injury-prone. Reimold was a patient hitter and stiff fielder. Hays is a very good fielder and a low OBP hitter. Good teams can definitely have guys like Hays. The O's problem, IMO, has been that lowish OBP guys like Hays are hitting way too high in the order, and there's too many of them. That's why people are willing to move on, IMO.

We'd be very happy with a return like that, particularly if it nets a top 100 LH SP.

I'd argue it actually helped the future development of this franchise because other guys got innings and/or got picked up, but any team losing its top 2 starters is typically catostrophic.

I kind of find the Hall storyline misleading. Yes, his ERA was 5.93, but did you know he pitched 10 games, and: First 3 games 5IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 6 K Last 7 games 8.2 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 13 K Yes, he was protected in short stints, but the results got much better all while I think his stuff was something like "tired." I think he's got a real chance of starting the season with a major role. I'm not sure what it will take in addition to his own performance (e.g., injury to someone else), but if Hall's got a live arm again and Holt etc. have had the chance to see what works and what doesn't, I think too many all sleeping on what he can do in 2023.

I agree with most of what you wrote, but I went into last season assuming that Means and Rodriguez would be the top two arms anchoring our rotation. They basically both missed the full year.

I don't think they want to go with the AA/AAA guys yet, but in theory that could change in spring training. I could definitely see him dealt at the deadline.

A lot of good answers here. I came to say DL Hall is a 1-3 starter, but that's been said. What hasn't been said is what if Ortiz's bat is for real? It would be amazing to have 6-7 years of gold glove like SS with an above average bat. And to still have Holliday on the come? Wow. But there are a few guys that could be that guy. What if Mayo and Basallo end up being two guys with 65-70 game power? What if Norby really has a Jeff Kent like bat? Heck. What if Hays plays a full season like his first half last year?

Understood. From now on I'll make sure to specify in all of my posts in Keith Law threads that I'm not specifically referring to you.

I followed that up with "I'm sure there are good sources here and there." My point is that there's much less data and video, not to mention guys that have a lot of development to do, so accurate rankings are very hard. They could boom or bust.

For those FCL/DSL guys, it's basically about how much stock you put into rumors and one-off reports. I'm sure there are good sources here and there, but if you told me Tavera or Basallo are top guys in our system in 1-2 years, I'd believe it. I'd also believe they're somewhere down the list, but still above Maikol Hernandez. Lol.

It's funny you phrased this the way you did. I was also thinking of putting guys into tiers. "The ceiling and talent are great, now it's time to produce" Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo and Povich (others too of course) "You were really good last year, so prove it's real and go to the majors" Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Denoyer, Armbruester "Not enough eyes on you and/or innings, show us what you got" Basallo, Bencosme, C. Tavera, Bright "Niiice, just don't go backwards while you progress forwards" Holliday, Estrada, B. Tavera "It's time to get it together, or that ship might sail" Rhodes, Trimbel, Servideo "Can you save it?" Lowther, Baumann And as I do this, I realize the tiers need a lot of work. Lol