LookinUp

Well, I think Santander might make a case that he's worthy of paying. That doesn't necessarily mean that the O's, with a system rich in OF prospects that (in theory) are performing this year, should do it. However I wouldn't be shocked if he solidifies his place among the really good (not amazing) hitters in baseball this year and thus in a substantially different category than Urias, Mateo, Vavra, etc.

No, but I honestly wasn't even thinking of Gunnar as a prospect. His speed, power and left handedness in Oriole Park give him an edge, but I think Norby might be a higher average guy with a similar OBP, but certainly less value overall (especially when considering defense).

I guess this is as good of a place as any to go on the record of saying, IMO, Norby might just be the best bat in our system when it's all said and done. I'm finding a spot for him. I think he might be our most under rated prospect.

On the verge is the best I’ve heard. If there’s a negative about those guys, it’s that they are too positive. They tend to focus on what guys can do, or could do, without discussing much their deficiencies. I personally don’t mind that because I understand that it’s happening, but also because I believe in Orioles player development like I never have before. So more of those mid to high case projections will come true. Obviously many will not.

I think it's worth pointing out that we're talking about the Dodgers system here. Today's top 10 prospects were yesterday's top 50 org prospects that nobody ever heard of. There's absolutely enough depth of talent to make a trade that's good for both teams, even if us message board guys never heard of them and they're not top 20 guys for the Dodgers. For example, Kyle Bradish was #17 on last year's OH top 20. Joey Ortiz was #20. Felix Bautista was #22. Hernaiz was #42. The key to any trade is finding those guys from their system.

I guess the missing data point is pretty much February or the first 2 weeks of March. I doubt stuff jumps that much, but at the same time I have enough doubt to wonder how much weight to put into the advanced pitch data from the first game of spring training.

I agree. It would be very rare to the point of pointless unless they discovered they had a plus CF on their hands. You could argue he could be the 9th inning defender as a COF if we had someone like Ortiz manning SS.

Yeah. His 3 years before last were decent. Interesting to see what the Dodgers are thinking.

Santander and Hays are dinged with injuries. Mateo pitch runs in the 7th. During practice he shows he's a far superior outfielder to Frazier, Henderson and Urias, so they stay in the infield and Mateo goes to the OF.

Miguel Rojas had a .605 OPS/72 OPS+ last year in 471 AB. That was good for 2.5 WAR, so he must have D value. Jorge Mateo had a .646 OPS/81 OPS+ in 494 AB. That was 3.4 WAR.

Edit: looks like I was wrong. Just deleting.

Question for anyone who might know... Does velo "ramp up?" Can we expect guys in general to gain a couple ticks by, say, May? Does spin rate ramp up? Same question, essentially.

The best part is the fact that so many different guys have a chance to be really good. Several will not make it of course, and we have no idea who that is, but the depth of potential is so exciting. There are guys in the 30-60 range that have a decent chance to be good major leaguers.

I think the prospect list types really started hyping him this offseason. One person, I don't remember who, said it's not even close about who was the best prospect in the last draft. At the time a lot of us wanted Jones, some Johnson, etc. But Holliday is now the consensus highest rated guy. Or at least that's the narrative. I'm with you. Let's get beyond SSS territory and see real production over time. We love what we've seen so far though.

Well, spring training hype isn't going to turn Creed Willems into Adley Rutschman as a prospect, but it might take a guy who's top 50 in all of baseball on some lists and make him a headliner in a trade. Combine a couple of 450 ft home runs with 110 EVs and 98 mph from 3rd to 1st and you might make believers of people who already think highly of him.

I'm convinced they're only mildly in "win now" mode. I don't see them giving up guys who project as cornerstones unless it's for a cornerstone return. Given the win now mode question, that's why I don't think it's "likely" that Mayo gets traded. I think Mayo has to be a headliner (or co-headliner with a Cowser type) at this point from the O's perspective, but I doubt other teams look at him like that quite yet. That could start to change with a little spring training hype.

The best part about this top 100 list is that it's pretty much the last one before real baseball is played and we start getting real reports. We're so far from games that these lists are starting to resemble NFL draft speculation/talk in my opinion. I'm also a huge believer in the offseason and know injuries happen a lot. That means we're about to see real improvements and real disappointments. Lists will change significantly. Huh. Only for a stud SP, at this point.

Based on Tony’s rankings, I assume that Denoyer is the best prospect of the three. I think the larger point here is that some of these types of prospects are going to have to pan out for this pitching player development strategy to work. I guess the alternative is to rely heavily on international development and players acquired in trades.

You have to wonder what the future of these RSNs will be. Maybe a national RSN for small market teams that give access to those games nationwide without all of the overhead associated with local RSNs?

Not sure if it's changed, but for me it's: 1. Gunnar 2. Grayson 3. Holliday 4. Hall 5. Cowser - I believe in the bat and love the emerging LH power 6. Mayo - want to see the breakout 7. Ortiz - feel like he could be as high as 4 8. Westburg - slightly less bat maybe than Norby, but better athlete? 9. Norby - think you find a position for that bat 10. Kjerstad - I think they like him, which is why he was where he was when he got injured last year Close: Povich (which is more bullish), Beavers, Basallo, McDermott (love what I'm hearing, hoping for a breakout)

To be fair to these three, two of them just got into our system and (as Tony said) rankers don't want to get too far out over their skis before seeing a larger sample size. And for Kjerstad, he's been injured pretty much since he got here, and one of those "injuries" had nothing to do with baseball. So I think the book is still open on him, positive or negative, almost like a new guy coming into the org. There's just not enough of a healthy sample to feel like we really know anything.

I remember seeing something similar for Matt Wieters when he burst onto the scene. The takeaway was something like a 50% chance of being a hall of famer. I'm guessing that means they put his 70+ probability at 50%. Either way, that's a tough level to project towards.

I went through this entire thread and don't see a lot of there there. What JA said was a throwaway line. If instead of Gibson + Frazier this org was relying on Bassitt + Westburg/Ortiz/Norby/Urias, I think there would be a much different perspective about this offseason at roughly +$5-6 million in payroll. If instead of Gibson + Frazier we were relying on Bassitt + Eovaldi + Westburg/Ortiz/Norby/Urias, I think we'd be way hyped up for a payroll of + $23 million or whatever. And that was doable, but not the plan, and that's the real problem with JA and this offseason.

We should pick up every Nationals castaway with a live arm.