LookinUp

And likewise, it feels like Jordan and Rajsich brought some decent talent into the org, but not with very good results after the player dev side took over. Maybe not as consistently as Elias' team has though.

Do you know if he's a 2026 or 2027? I sure hope he's using a BBCOR at this point either way.

And at the same time, probably wouldn't be what he is today without Elias and his team. In the old scouting director versus player development personnel argument, I have to think the scouting directors were much more right than wrong. I feel bad for the guys drafted into this org from the early 80's until Elias.

These lists all do the best they can, but in doing so they often give the impression that "what they are" = "what they will be." My orange colored glasses, which are somewhat more accurate these days than before Elias, is that the O's prospects are more likely to continue developing than prospects in a lot of other orgs. It's no guarantee of course, but that makes me more bullish on Kjerstad, Cowser and Ortiz than a lot of the rankers. In fact, you can add Rodriguez and Hall to that list too, along with a couple of 2nd/3rd tier pitchers. And that's ok. I'm more likely to be wrong than Tony, Longenhagen, Law, etc. There are two guys that I'm really excited for but also have big questions about: Mayo and Basallo. I just have less faith in their ability to make contact, which is ironic given Cowser's issues last year. My point is that I try to remember that these lists are snapshots in time that tend to have a recency bias. I try not to let myself get too caught up in the ranking itself. It's more about what abilities and deficiencies the players have so I know what to look for moving forward.

It's apparent that the O's are acquiring pitching that's closer to ready while developing hitting. It's not like they don't have young pitchers too, but they must see more risk there. Just look at the staff now. It's mostly guys who had already worked their way through some of the developmental steps. The O's identify guys they think they can help and go get them, mostly for very cheap. That's not a mistake or an oversight. It's their model based strategy. Now you may think you have a better model, but I kind of doubt it. We also haven't seen this plan fully mature yet. The international guys aren't ready and many of the draft picks are just starting to get to the higher levels. Heck, we've just now started to implement trading prospect bats for pitching and we got 4 years control of an average starter for our 6th-7th best SS prospect. This isn't exhaustive, but here's a lot of our top guys and how they were acquired. I'd say we have a decent staff even before maturation of the system and/or making many hitting prospect for pitcher trades. Gibson, Voth, Watkins, Baker, Bautista, Wells, Givens, Krehbiel - Signed or claimed Bradish, Kremer, Zimmermann, Tate, Irvin, Perez, Vespi - Via Trade Hall, Rodriguez, Means, Baumann, Akin - Homegrown

I don't believe they did one thing rather than the other. I think they have a particular approach to player acquisition. They've traded for a ton of arms over the last few years. Much more than bats. They do so, I assume, because they think they can get more value drafting bats and then trading them for multiple arms. Again, you're ignoring trades here. Seth Johnson, Chance McDermott, Cano, Nunez, Povich, Rojas. Add in the trades with the Angels and it's clear. The O's get a load of arms from trades and free agent signings, for that matter.

From a power perspective, I'd kind of agree. It does seem like Mayo's the better athlete with a better arm. And Thome was known for hitting oppo HRs. We'd all be thrilled if Mayo could develop that up the middle power approach.

The Blood interview made it clear (to me at least) they don't see a need to develop a 1B, or at least not someone who's exclusively 1B. It seems like they'll take the best hitting - worst fielders and put them at 1B. I immediately thought of Kjerstad.

I think the economics just make it impossible. Too many people in the minors would have to commit to housing, jobs and life near a team facility. Instead places like Driveline will just continue to expand. Even around this area there are a bunch of people trying to go that way, but with less technology. Eventually places like that will be everywhere, with varying expertise of course.

A lot of things are possible, but there's probably a declining probability with these ideas. Signing an $8 million player purely for depth without an ulterior motive seems quite low probability.

This seems like a recipe for a bunch of #3/4 types, with the hopes that one of the velo guys ends up clicking on all cylinders. I do think we have several decent guys in the pipeline whose profiles have a higher upside than many of the last regime's low velo guys. Of course, I was a big fan of Lowther, so what do I know?

The only explanations I can think of are 1. A trade was/is in the works 2. Plausible deniability to gain an extra year for all of Westburg/Ortiz/Norby. It still feels like Elias is pushing out our competitive window as far as possible.

I'm waiting on the 30/30 about the monster trade that never was, where the O's almost shipped 3 future hall of famers to Milwaukee for the stud pitcher who blew his arm out, only to be vetoed by the owner because of a meddlesome lawsuit between the Angelos family.

McDaniel's no dummy either. Pretty sharp evaluator. That doesn't mean he's not wrong on stuff. With over 100 guys, I'm sure there will be duds in there.

It really is pretty incredible. Of the Wells, Zimmerman, Lowther group, I thought he'd be by far the best. It just went sideways for him. You have to wonder if this is a sink or swim year for him. It's time to get it right or he might get pushed out of this org. I do think Denoyer and Armbruester will compete to be in that rotation, with Young and Povich potential mid-season additions.

Like it or not, owning a massive business that gets public financing means you have to be a politician. The Angelos' have always rode in Democrat circles, so it makes sense that he might have something better in the works with Moore's people.

There was a time when people who grew up happy to have one TV in the house and who remembered the color TV rollout were aghast at the idea that they'd have to miss games because they got put on ESPN. It's a messy transition, but it's a necessity. I don't know how this hole streaming service thing will shake out. It's definitely too clunky having to exit one app, open another app and then navigate to a different "channel." That said, this transition is happening and MLB should absolutely do as much of it as they can.

Always take these with a grain of salt. Particularly the specific ordering of players. Cowser's such a great example. So is Hall. Both could be great players. Both also could never overcome their flaws. One has dealt with injuries. The other with a progression through the minors. Who knows if their issues are something they can overcome or not? To an outside evaluator, it's at best an educated guessing game weighing tools against a very hard to pin down probability. But having so many players in consideration is amazing. Statistically, you'd think a few of these guys will end up really really good.

Yep. And a year later. They didn't offer what he thought he was worth and so he bet on himself rather than go to a team that he probably felt didn't respect the process. That bet didn't pay off, at least in the short run, but I bet he has bad feelings toward Boston. They cost him money even if he took their money. That's a bad way to do business.

Nah. You're equivocating on this. Players don't just set a random value. They essentially let the market tell them their value. It's like a college basketball player who goes to the industry to see if he'll be a first round draft pick. That has a lot to do with whether players leave college or not. And it's the same with the MLB draft. Lawler probably had multiple people tell him he's a 2-4 overall pick. Cowser probably 6-10. Arizona probably said they'd value him around #2/3. That tells him their number. Now he has a number that he can float to other teams. They're not exactly close, or they do a cost benefit like the O's did with Cowser, and it's just not worth it to go ahead and draft that player knowing full well you don't value him commensurate with what other teams do. And this problem really only happens with large amounts of money. If the O's valued him $100,000 less than the Diamondbacks, he'd be an Oriole.

With top picks, when they've put a number out there that some team has likely told them they'll get? You want to just play dumb, offer him less and very realistically cost a guy $1,000,000 that was essentially in the bank since another team committed to it? Yeah. That'll go over really well. I'd wager it's exactly what Boston did with Fabian.

Color me shocked about Povich. I figured Hall, Kjerstad, Basallo and Beavers would be above him on lists. Just wanted to make a note about velocity. A sudden jump like they described is often mechanical...getting behind the ball more (sometimes at the expense of movement) than what is naturally more side spin for a lot of kids. You often lose velo/efficiency with that side spin. If so, that would make sense that velo went up quickly but results didn't necessarily translate. That's because the spin you lose is often like the difference between a wild 2-seamer/cutter and a standard 2-seemer/4-seemer. If so, I'd imagine Povich is in the process of learning to pitch with the new velo as one tool in his toolbox. I know a kid doing the same thing right now. It's almost like a new pitch more than just added velo. Pretty exciting development if that's what's going on.

Players would hate doing business with your organization. That hatred would grow over time and manifest itself in many other ways. If you're talking about a single deal for a single player. Fine. But that's a terrible way to do business over time.

No, but these teams are exchanging numbers with the players. If the team comes in after exchanging numbers and offers a lot less money, that reputation is going to spread. It’s just not how things work.

I'm not questioning your reports or people who are also relatively down on Cowser like Law. You both point to reality. All I'm here to say is anecdotal...I've heard interviews with multiple prospects who talk about the guy like he rakes. I would never believe his stat line in light of what I've heard. So I tend to think it's some combination of swing adjustments, not yet having adjusted to better LHPs, or an old fashioned slump in a small sample size. But if he's as natural of a hitter as they say, he should be really good in 2023. Let's hope so.