EddeeEddee
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Posts posted by EddeeEddee
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34 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
No the White Sox are out of it already, they are 8-21. This season is over for them. They are down at the bottom with the likes of the Royals, A's, Nationals, and Rockies.
That's my point. When the Nationals traded Giolito they were in the playoff hunt -- unlike if the WS traded Cease this season.
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15 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Bedard comes to mind. Not sure if Pablo Lopez was quite at that level, but certainly pretty young and cost controlled.
Except I believe Bedard was close to free agency (within 2 years). He's a also a good example of a team overtrading for a pitcher. The O's fleeced the Mariners in that trade.
Pablo Lopez may be the best example. I can't tell if he was close to free agency when Miami traded him. I think Miami was just one of those rare teams that had more than enough pitchers to trade and badly needed bats -- which is not a situation the White Sox are in.
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32 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Blake Snell? Chris Sale?
Weren't they both close to free agency? That's the other part of my point, Dylan Cease is not.
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11 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I’m not really following you. There certainly have been plenty of pitchers at roughly Cease’s level traded.
I can tell you're not following me because you're ignoring the distinction between teams that are buying and teams that are selling. That's the main part of my point.
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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Blake Snell? Chris Sale?
14 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:The Eduardo Rodriguez and Hader trades are not really comparable to the situations that we were discussing here. Neither was a top 10 prospects in the game at any time, let alone a #1.
The only trade that I can think of is maybe Sunny Gray, but he was coming off a poor year prior. Luis Castillo had 1 year left before FA I believe. Maybe back in the day Pedro Martinez from the Expos to the RedSox? Johan Santana to the Mets?
I think Sonny, Castillo and Pedro were all close to (less than two years away from) free agency, pressuring their teams to sell. And Santana I think had already passed free agency. I don't think any of these guys really compare to a possible Cease trade because I can't see the WS feeling pressure to sell yet. One interesting comparison could be when the Expos traded Randy Johnson to the Mariners for Mark Langston -- a terrible trade for the Expos.
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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Blake Snell? Chris Sale?
14 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:The Eduardo Rodriguez and Hader trades are not really comparable to the situations that we were discussing here. Neither was a top 10 prospects in the game at any time, let alone a #1.
The only trade that I can think of is maybe Sunny Gray, but he was coming off a poor year prior. Luis Castillo had 1 year left before FA I believe. Maybe back in the day Pedro Martinez from the Expos to the RedSox? Johan Santana to the Mets?
I think Sonny, Castillo and Pedro were all close to (less than two years away from) free agency, pressuring their teams to sell. And Santana I think had already passed free agency. I don't think any of these guys really compare to a possible Cease trade because I can't see the WS feeling pressure to sell yet. One interesting comparison could be when the Expos traded Randy Johnson to the Mariners for Mark Langston -- a terrible trade for the Expos.
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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I’d need to understand better what you mean by “controlled, young, elite arms.” Hader was years from the majors and not well known when we traded him. Rodriguez was a well-regarded prospect but I don’t know if I’d say “elite.” He was ranked in the 50-80 range and was having a somewhat disappointing year at the time of the trade. I can think of many trades involving pitching prospects more highly regarded than those. For example the Nats traded Lucas Giolito (then ranked No. 25 by BA and higher by others) to get Adam Eaton.
The Nationals were a buying team when they traded for Eaton, not a selling team. They traded Giolito for someone who could help them win "now" -- which is not what the White Sox would be doing if they trade Cease now. That was part of the point of my post.
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10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
I mean while they are at it why don’t they just ask for Adley too? Or wait I have one better, why don’t they just ask for all NINE of our top 100 prospects…lol
I think it may be helpful to look around to see other comparable trades to get an idea of what is realistic. Soto didn’t even land the type of haul that you are suggesting. One of Gunnar or Holiday in a package for Cease is over the moon. Both is a fantasy at best!
Soto was unusual in that the Nats felt some pressure and desire to trade him after he turned down a huge extension. And also, he's not an elite starting pitcher. The only recent examples I can think of team trading controlled, young, elite arms at all are when a buying team is trading for a veteran to add that (supposedly) missing piece -- like when the Orioles traded EdRod or traded Hader. But unlike Cease neither of those guys had proven anything at the MLB level (if they had the O's would have just played them rather than traded them).
I'd love to hear if anyone can think of a selling team (not a buying team) trading a highly regarded, young, controlled pitcher who is not close to free agency or not in a contract dispute.
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29 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
Whatever "the moon" is. We can afford it and outbid everyone. No one has the type of org talent that we have. As I mentioned, we could give them 3/4 top 100 guys, a major league guy, and a high ceilinged A guy or 16 year old Dominican. Or whatever and it wouldn't even be a speed bump for us. When you are this rich, you can't go broke! Just ask Bezos or Gates. There is nothing that they can buy that would hurt them or threaten them. That's how prospect rich the Baltimore Orioles are.
Another option the O's could do is try to trade for a highly paid elite veteran starter like Houston did when they traded for Verlander, but it's hard to imagine the O's taking on that kind of money. And not sure who might be available along those lines this season.
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4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
Whatever "the moon" is. We can afford it and outbid everyone. No one has the type of org talent that we have. As I mentioned, we could give them 3/4 top 100 guys, a major league guy, and a high ceilinged A guy or 16 year old Dominican. Or whatever and it wouldn't even be a speed bump for us. When you are this rich, you can't go broke! Just ask Bezos or Gates. There is nothing that they can buy that would hurt them or threaten them. That's how prospect rich the Baltimore Orioles are.
I may be wrong but I believe the moon the WS will want in a trade would be something like Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, DL Hall and maybe someone like Basallo. Is that haul worth it for Dylan Cease? Does he get us to the promised land more than a cheaper option? Why do I think the White Sox would ask for that much? Because, as others are saying here, there is no other young, low-cost elite pitcher available -- and there is no pressure for them to trade him. They have him for 2+ more years. Unless he is mediocre to terrible the next couple of months, everyone will be calling the White Sox for him (unless there is another low-cost elite starter made available that no one here has thought of yet). And even if he doesn't pitch well the next month or two the WS may refuse to sell low on him. I think most teams trade for "rentals" for this reason. Who trades highly rated, young, low-cost starting pitchers under control for 2 more years without getting a haul? Especially when the team is selling rather than buying? The White Sox are not under pressure to trade yet, making them more likely to ask for a haul that is a "this elite young pitcher is not available to trade unless you overpay" kind of haul.
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4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
First I don't think the awful ownership even cares or knows enough about any trades to weigh in. The evil Angelos strikes me as one only concerned about money and status. So I think Elias is free to make any trade without outside interference unless it would cost the ownership major coin, which none of these guys would.
I don't know what to say to the "what if young starters improve" piece? Except that they could experience an improved performance against lesser competition during spurts of the season, like we have seen already this year. But I just don't believe in the talent, unless we are talking about Grayson. I don't think Bradish, Kremer and definitely not Gibson are that good. Wells is adequate, but I would prefer that we not throw him in any games 1-3 in a postseason series unless it's in relief. In that scenario, the other team is liable to have a more talented/better pitcher on the mound.
I think just about everyone is on the same page as you. I'm no expert but just saying how difficult it could be to get the perfect young arm in a trade. A rental starting pitcher is usually the best most teams can do. Trading for a young, elite, low-cost proven MLB starter is difficult to imagine without giving up someone we really don't want to part with. If I'm the White Sox FO and everyone is calling me about Cease, I'm going to ask for the moon.
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4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
First I don't think the awful ownership even cares or knows enough about any trades to weigh in. The evil Angelos strikes me as one only concerned about money and status. So I think Elias is free to make any trade without outside interference unless it would cost the ownership major coin, which none of these guys would.
I don't know what to say to the "what if young starters improve" piece? Except that they could experience an improved performance against lesser competition during spurts of the season, like we have seen already this year. But I just don't believe in the talent, unless we are talking about Grayson. I don't think Bradish, Kremer and definitely not Gibson are that good. Wells is adequate, but I would prefer that we not throw him in any games 1-3 in a postseason series unless it's in relief. In that scenario, the other team is liable to have a more talented/better pitcher on the mound.
I think just about everyone is on the same page as you. I'm no expert but just saying how difficult it could be to get the perfect young arm in a trade. A rental starting pitcher is usually the best most teams can do. Trading for a young, elite, low-cost proven MLB starter is difficult to imagine without giving up someone we really don't want to part with. If I'm the White Sox FO and everyone is calling me about Cease, I'm going to ask for the moon.
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10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
One should have nothing to do with the other. Means should be viewed as a bonus, not a necessity or something that we are going to have to depend on in order to win in the Fall.
Yeah I pretty much agree with you, but you have to be realistic when you consider who owns this team. Still, a trade for Cease or someone like him could fall through for reasons outside of the Orioles' control, which could push them to go for a rental type instead. Maybe even more important, if the O's are still playing this well a month or two from now and the young starters have improved, then there will be less urgency to add any starter right now, other than Means. But I agree with you they should work to acquire one in any case before the season ends, preferably someone longer term.
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3 hours ago, Frobby said:
I must say, it’s hard for me to recall a deal that involved more than two top-100 prospects. I guess the Juan Soto deal sort of did, if you count Gore, who had lost prospect status but had been very highly ranked at one time.
Unless it's now more true that elite bats -- young or old -- are more plentiful/available in a trade than elite arms. If so then, all things more or less equal in terms of age and talent, an elite pitcher could cost more than Soto. Seems more true when people here are having a hard time of thinking of anyone other than Cease as available -- except for veteran rental types.
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3 hours ago, Frobby said:
I must say, it’s hard for me to recall a deal that involved more than two top-100 prospects. I guess the Juan Soto deal sort of did, if you count Gore, who had lost prospect status but had been very highly ranked at one time.
Unless it's now more true that elite bats -- young or old -- are more plentiful/available in a trade than elite arms. If so then, all things more or less equal in terms of age and talent, an elite pitcher could cost more than Soto. Seems more true when people here are having a hard time of thinking of anyone other than Cease as available -- except for veteran rental types.
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2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:
I believe that team with all those young player editions would eventually have the best offense in baseball. But would take a while to get there. The problem is that this year's team is ready to win now ADN we only have Adley for 4 more years. Plus, with all of that great offense, I'm not sure that we could win with this subpar pitching staff/organizational pitching talent.
Grayson is the best that we have and there is NO ONE coming who is even close to him. Or for that matter even in his tier as a prospect. We gotta find better pitching from somewhere or the great offense won't matter in the end.
John Means has looked pretty close to a TOR starter in the past. Naturally the O's want to see if he can step in to his old self when figuring out trade possibilities. Not that having both a healthy Means and someone like Dylan Cease would be a problem, but Means' level of effectiveness when he returns could influence whether the O's try to trade mid-season for a long term solution or more of rental (or somewhere in between).
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3 hours ago, baltfan said:
For any of these types of trades, we need to follow the Dodgers model. They have repeatedly traded for top end guys and refused to give up the very top of their system in exchange.
I think a bit of an apples to oranges comparison because the Dodgers frequently have top pitching prospects and the Orioles rarely do. If the Orioles often had 2 or 3 top 50 pitchers like the Dodgers usually seem to have then we wouldn't be having this conversation. The Orioles are going to have to trade one or two of their top prospects to get a guy like Alcantara -- and the Dodgers would too (though the Dodgers have less need for him). Also the Dodgers frequently trade for short term rentals like Machado and Mookie, which aren't going to cost them their top prospects. And if Ohtani became available then watch the Dodgers and every other contender happily offer some of their top prospects.
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On 4/27/2023 at 1:18 PM, Billy F-Face3 said:
Imagine if the Orioles were to trade for a prospect like Andrew Painter. Or better yet, a Major League Ace. They have an abundance of position players they can use as leverage to make such a deal, and if they are all around the same age it makes no sense to clog it all up and block them from the field. Might as well as flip that into a spot that can be put on the Big League field right away, like excellent pitching. They have so much that they should still have pkenty of talent in the younger ranks to keep the franchise healthy long term.
That's what they'll most likely need to do eventually, like when Houston traded for Verlander. Can't see them trading for a talent like Painter unless the Phillies feel Painter is overrated for some reason. Otherwise, I think the only way the Phillies trade Painter is if they are just on the heels of the lead of the NL East and they feel they can get a major MLB talent for him -- say a Shohei Ohtani or someone just below him in elite status. And it would have to be someone who is more than just a rental.
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On 4/27/2023 at 1:18 PM, Billy F-Face3 said:
Imagine if the Orioles were to trade for a prospect like Andrew Painter. Or better yet, a Major League Ace. They have an abundance of position players they can use as leverage to make such a deal, and if they are all around the same age it makes no sense to clog it all up and block them from the field. Might as well as flip that into a spot that can be put on the Big League field right away, like excellent pitching. They have so much that they should still have pkenty of talent in the younger ranks to keep the franchise healthy long term.
That's what they'll most likely need to do eventually, like when Houston traded for Verlander. Can't see them trading for a talent like Painter unless the Phillies feel Painter is overrated for some reason. Otherwise, I think the only way the Phillies trade Painter is if they are just on the heels of the lead of the NL East and they feel they can get a major MLB talent for him -- say a Shohei Ohtani or someone just below him in elite status. And it would have to be someone who is more than just a rental.
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On 4/27/2023 at 1:18 PM, Billy F-Face3 said:
Imagine if the Orioles were to trade for a prospect like Andrew Painter. Or better yet, a Major League Ace. They have an abundance of position players they can use as leverage to make such a deal, and if they are all around the same age it makes no sense to clog it all up and block them from the field. Might as well as flip that into a spot that can be put on the Big League field right away, like excellent pitching. They have so much that they should still have pkenty of talent in the younger ranks to keep the franchise healthy long term.
That's what they'll most likely need to do eventually, like when Houston traded for Verlander. Can't see them trading for a talent like Painter unless the Phillies feel Painter is overrated for some reason. Otherwise, I think the only way the Phillies trade Painter is if they are just on the heels of the lead of the NL East and they feel they can get a major MLB talent for him -- say a Shohei Ohtani or someone just below him in elite status. And it would have to be someone who is more than just a rental.
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18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Sure?
I wasn't critiquing the move.
I was making a joke.
Since a team called the Baltimore Orioles did, in fact, sell Babe Ruth.
I would expect Dan would have gotten the joke.
Oh, ok. Who is Dan?
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7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
After the Orioles sold Ruth to the Red Sox.
Well, the Orioles were a minor league team at that time.
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29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Welp, he went 91 pitches and the O's haven't conditioned him to go deeper into games than that.
I don't have the numbers on hand but I'm not sure he ever hit 100 pitches in a start in the minors, if he did it was pretty rare.
I guess, but he's pitched 5 innings in the majors in 3 other games already this season. When is the time to give him that extra inning or two? I would think pretty darn soon -- especially when he's dominant, obviously. I see he's pitched 6 or more innings in the minors several times but don't know the pitch counts. I'm probably overreacting but it just felt too early to take him out. I'm following the game online rather than watching it but what an exciting pitcher he is already -- even if it is against one of the weakest hitting teams in the league.
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Why take out the team's top young pitcher after only five innings when he's been completely dominant? He doesn't even have 100 pitches. And then Hyde relieves him with Keegan Akin's trash. I'm sorry, I don't care if the O's are up by 6 runs. It's just a bad decision -- one of things I hate most about today's game.
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AL team to watch: White Sox
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Right, I think the White Sox are in a position to ask for the moon for Cease this year because he's more than 2 years away from FA. If they don't get what they want then they'll just say, OK, let's talk in the offseason -- or next season. Or they'll trade him to some other team that is willing to overpay for him. But next season -- or even in the offseason -- they'll feel more pressure to really negotiate as free agency gets closer. I could be wrong, they may want to do a deal soon. But if they don't try to get something of a sizable overpay for him this year then they won't really be doing their job. They're terrible this year and they need to extract as much as they can from their best tradeable player before they feel the pressure of free agency to do a deal. Frobby mentioned Erik Bedard, who got a very nice return for the Orioles, and I think Bedard was less than 2 years away from FA when that deal happened. I'd love to be wrong about all this of course and see the O's get him next week for McKenna, Vavra and Akin.