EddeeEddee
-
Posts
1349 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by EddeeEddee
-
-
8 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:
Starting pitching is a huge concern. They will never be true contenders until they have a couple of TOR blue chips.
Grayson should be expected to take some lumps as he develops. Gibson is what he is and maybe got a bit unlucky yesterday. O's will definitely need to trade for one or two more good starters, hopefully some time this year, though I suspect Bradish and Kremer will throw some good games again soon.
-
8 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:
Heck, I would go to an Angels game if I was near Anaheim just to watch Othani and Trout play even if the Orioles weren't involved.
Absolutely. I've been to at least one Yankee/Angels games in Anaheim. The Angels are a fun team to watch.
-
11 hours ago, Just Regular said:
70% of the time I think Ohtani stays. The 30% of the times he goes my guess is a return around Westburg, Santander, Irvin is enough.
April and the AL Central being what they are, Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito beat Minnesota in the next 1.25 days and CHW are just 6 games off the division lead. #AutomaticBerth
If Westburg, Santander and Irvin could get Ohtani I think the O's would do that right now. But I doubt that deal gets you Ohtani's English translator. Pretty sure the Angels don't want to trade him. They would need an offer to convince them to let him go, and I think other teams would come up with much better offers than that. I said earlier I doubted Gunnar and Holliday alone would get the O's Ohtani. But I said that thinking he hit free agency after next season. Didn't realize it was coming this offseason. It will be interesting to see if the O's target Ohtani, but I think it's doubtful because I think the asking price will be quite higher than what you're suggesting.
-
6 hours ago, Going Underground said:
Anyone been to Anaheim stadium? Be out in LA for Labor Day and since the Orioles are around probably will go.
I live in the LA area and make it there from time to time to see an O's game, though haven't been in awhile. Since its renovation it's a pretty decent stadium to see a game, and the food is pretty good. Like Dodger Stadium the most challenging part can be dealing with traffic and leaving the parking lot in a timely manner. I suspect that is not as bad as it used to be either. I prefer to see the O's play at Petco when they make it out to San Diego. That's a nice stadium in a great location. Don't think I've ever seen the O's at Dodger Stadium but it's a must visit stadium regardless who the Dodgers are playing imo.
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:
I doubt Gunnar and Holliday alone would get you Ichiro. They're very highly rated prospects, but for now just that, prospects. Plus, neither are pitchers. And I think you're wrong to say teams can't close to those two anywhere else. Other teams can offer more pitching than the O's easily. I'll let you have the last word since we'll have to agree to disagree.
Sorry I meant Ohtani not Ichiro lol!
-
6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
I hear ya. They may not be interested in trading him. Oh, well move on to the next option/team.
But your suggestion of a package earlier was ludicrous. First of all no team has a package anything close of Gunnar and Holiday plus Basallo to even offer in the first place. Second there is no way in this world that any player is worth that. Nobody is asking for that and nobody is getting that. You are talking about the top prospect heading into this season and the top one heading into next season.
Now if you said one Gunnar OR Holiday as a highlight to a trade package, yeah they might ask for that. But chances are they are not getting that because again that can't get anything close to that anywhere else.
So just to be clear "the moon" is not and will NEVER be Gunnar AND Holiday. That would be as ridiculous as asking for Grayson AND Adley. No one is asking that hight. And definitely not for Dylan Cease who has only ONE SINGULAR elite season on his resume.
In the real world the moon is 3 top 100 prospects for him. Again, no one is giving the CHI Sox more for Cease than the Padres gave up to get Soto.
If they decide to wait until the offseason or next year's trade deadline, the price will only go down as he will have less years of team control.
It sounds like you either don't like Cease as a pitcher or believe in last season that much. OR you are afraid of a scenario where the Orioles "give away the store". - There's nothing wrong with the former. But the latter is just not based in reality and sound reasoning. There is NO SUCH SCENARIO where the Orioles can give away most of their young talent in a single trade. As a matter of fact, they could acquire Cease AND Eduardo Rodriguez and have MORE prospects in the top 100 than only TWO teams in the sport.
I doubt Gunnar and Holliday alone would get you Ichiro. They're very highly rated prospects, but for now just that, prospects. Plus, neither are pitchers. And I think you're wrong to say teams can't close to those two anywhere else. Other teams can offer more pitching than the O's easily. I'll let you have the last word since we'll have to agree to disagree.
-
13 minutes ago, Frobby said:
No, they weren’t. Both had signed extensions with their existing teams. Both had three seasons to go when they were traded.
Ok I see, but they would have been close to FA had they not signed extensions. I guess those are similar examples to Cease except that they were possibly traded to shed a bit of salary as well since they had extensions. But I'm thinking the Rays certainly were not sellers when they traded Snell. Maybe with Snell also more like the Pablo Lopez trade in that the Rays had an embarrassment of pitching riches they were willing to deal to get better down the road. The Rays are crafty.
-
20 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
I think that I hear you saying, that the White Sox may not be interested in trading Cease?
That could be true. But they only have 2 seasons left with him and they are almost assuredly going to sell off other pieces like Giolito, Clevinger, Lynn (if they can), Grandal and maybe Anderson and Moncado. What would make them believe that they are going to compete next year, with way less pieces than they have now? There best bet with the kind of roster they have now, particularly the shape of their rotation and the condition of their bullpen would be to sell. They are not going to win a World Series in Cease's final 2 years, they are nowhere close.
Right, I think the White Sox are in a position to ask for the moon for Cease this year because he's more than 2 years away from FA. If they don't get what they want then they'll just say, OK, let's talk in the offseason -- or next season. Or they'll trade him to some other team that is willing to overpay for him. But next season -- or even in the offseason -- they'll feel more pressure to really negotiate as free agency gets closer. I could be wrong, they may want to do a deal soon. But if they don't try to get something of a sizable overpay for him this year then they won't really be doing their job. They're terrible this year and they need to extract as much as they can from their best tradeable player before they feel the pressure of free agency to do a deal. Frobby mentioned Erik Bedard, who got a very nice return for the Orioles, and I think Bedard was less than 2 years away from FA when that deal happened. I'd love to be wrong about all this of course and see the O's get him next week for McKenna, Vavra and Akin.
-
34 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
No the White Sox are out of it already, they are 8-21. This season is over for them. They are down at the bottom with the likes of the Royals, A's, Nationals, and Rockies.
That's my point. When the Nationals traded Giolito they were in the playoff hunt -- unlike if the WS traded Cease this season.
-
15 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Bedard comes to mind. Not sure if Pablo Lopez was quite at that level, but certainly pretty young and cost controlled.
Except I believe Bedard was close to free agency (within 2 years). He's a also a good example of a team overtrading for a pitcher. The O's fleeced the Mariners in that trade.
Pablo Lopez may be the best example. I can't tell if he was close to free agency when Miami traded him. I think Miami was just one of those rare teams that had more than enough pitchers to trade and badly needed bats -- which is not a situation the White Sox are in.
-
32 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Blake Snell? Chris Sale?
Weren't they both close to free agency? That's the other part of my point, Dylan Cease is not.
-
11 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I’m not really following you. There certainly have been plenty of pitchers at roughly Cease’s level traded.
I can tell you're not following me because you're ignoring the distinction between teams that are buying and teams that are selling. That's the main part of my point.
-
4 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Blake Snell? Chris Sale?
14 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:The Eduardo Rodriguez and Hader trades are not really comparable to the situations that we were discussing here. Neither was a top 10 prospects in the game at any time, let alone a #1.
The only trade that I can think of is maybe Sunny Gray, but he was coming off a poor year prior. Luis Castillo had 1 year left before FA I believe. Maybe back in the day Pedro Martinez from the Expos to the RedSox? Johan Santana to the Mets?
I think Sonny, Castillo and Pedro were all close to (less than two years away from) free agency, pressuring their teams to sell. And Santana I think had already passed free agency. I don't think any of these guys really compare to a possible Cease trade because I can't see the WS feeling pressure to sell yet. One interesting comparison could be when the Expos traded Randy Johnson to the Mariners for Mark Langston -- a terrible trade for the Expos.
-
4 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Blake Snell? Chris Sale?
14 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:The Eduardo Rodriguez and Hader trades are not really comparable to the situations that we were discussing here. Neither was a top 10 prospects in the game at any time, let alone a #1.
The only trade that I can think of is maybe Sunny Gray, but he was coming off a poor year prior. Luis Castillo had 1 year left before FA I believe. Maybe back in the day Pedro Martinez from the Expos to the RedSox? Johan Santana to the Mets?
I think Sonny, Castillo and Pedro were all close to (less than two years away from) free agency, pressuring their teams to sell. And Santana I think had already passed free agency. I don't think any of these guys really compare to a possible Cease trade because I can't see the WS feeling pressure to sell yet. One interesting comparison could be when the Expos traded Randy Johnson to the Mariners for Mark Langston -- a terrible trade for the Expos.
-
8 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I’d need to understand better what you mean by “controlled, young, elite arms.” Hader was years from the majors and not well known when we traded him. Rodriguez was a well-regarded prospect but I don’t know if I’d say “elite.” He was ranked in the 50-80 range and was having a somewhat disappointing year at the time of the trade. I can think of many trades involving pitching prospects more highly regarded than those. For example the Nats traded Lucas Giolito (then ranked No. 25 by BA and higher by others) to get Adam Eaton.
The Nationals were a buying team when they traded for Eaton, not a selling team. They traded Giolito for someone who could help them win "now" -- which is not what the White Sox would be doing if they trade Cease now. That was part of the point of my post.
-
10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
I mean while they are at it why don’t they just ask for Adley too? Or wait I have one better, why don’t they just ask for all NINE of our top 100 prospects…lol
I think it may be helpful to look around to see other comparable trades to get an idea of what is realistic. Soto didn’t even land the type of haul that you are suggesting. One of Gunnar or Holiday in a package for Cease is over the moon. Both is a fantasy at best!
Soto was unusual in that the Nats felt some pressure and desire to trade him after he turned down a huge extension. And also, he's not an elite starting pitcher. The only recent examples I can think of team trading controlled, young, elite arms at all are when a buying team is trading for a veteran to add that (supposedly) missing piece -- like when the Orioles traded EdRod or traded Hader. But unlike Cease neither of those guys had proven anything at the MLB level (if they had the O's would have just played them rather than traded them).
I'd love to hear if anyone can think of a selling team (not a buying team) trading a highly regarded, young, controlled pitcher who is not close to free agency or not in a contract dispute.
-
29 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
Whatever "the moon" is. We can afford it and outbid everyone. No one has the type of org talent that we have. As I mentioned, we could give them 3/4 top 100 guys, a major league guy, and a high ceilinged A guy or 16 year old Dominican. Or whatever and it wouldn't even be a speed bump for us. When you are this rich, you can't go broke! Just ask Bezos or Gates. There is nothing that they can buy that would hurt them or threaten them. That's how prospect rich the Baltimore Orioles are.
Another option the O's could do is try to trade for a highly paid elite veteran starter like Houston did when they traded for Verlander, but it's hard to imagine the O's taking on that kind of money. And not sure who might be available along those lines this season.
-
4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
Whatever "the moon" is. We can afford it and outbid everyone. No one has the type of org talent that we have. As I mentioned, we could give them 3/4 top 100 guys, a major league guy, and a high ceilinged A guy or 16 year old Dominican. Or whatever and it wouldn't even be a speed bump for us. When you are this rich, you can't go broke! Just ask Bezos or Gates. There is nothing that they can buy that would hurt them or threaten them. That's how prospect rich the Baltimore Orioles are.
I may be wrong but I believe the moon the WS will want in a trade would be something like Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, DL Hall and maybe someone like Basallo. Is that haul worth it for Dylan Cease? Does he get us to the promised land more than a cheaper option? Why do I think the White Sox would ask for that much? Because, as others are saying here, there is no other young, low-cost elite pitcher available -- and there is no pressure for them to trade him. They have him for 2+ more years. Unless he is mediocre to terrible the next couple of months, everyone will be calling the White Sox for him (unless there is another low-cost elite starter made available that no one here has thought of yet). And even if he doesn't pitch well the next month or two the WS may refuse to sell low on him. I think most teams trade for "rentals" for this reason. Who trades highly rated, young, low-cost starting pitchers under control for 2 more years without getting a haul? Especially when the team is selling rather than buying? The White Sox are not under pressure to trade yet, making them more likely to ask for a haul that is a "this elite young pitcher is not available to trade unless you overpay" kind of haul.
-
4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
First I don't think the awful ownership even cares or knows enough about any trades to weigh in. The evil Angelos strikes me as one only concerned about money and status. So I think Elias is free to make any trade without outside interference unless it would cost the ownership major coin, which none of these guys would.
I don't know what to say to the "what if young starters improve" piece? Except that they could experience an improved performance against lesser competition during spurts of the season, like we have seen already this year. But I just don't believe in the talent, unless we are talking about Grayson. I don't think Bradish, Kremer and definitely not Gibson are that good. Wells is adequate, but I would prefer that we not throw him in any games 1-3 in a postseason series unless it's in relief. In that scenario, the other team is liable to have a more talented/better pitcher on the mound.
I think just about everyone is on the same page as you. I'm no expert but just saying how difficult it could be to get the perfect young arm in a trade. A rental starting pitcher is usually the best most teams can do. Trading for a young, elite, low-cost proven MLB starter is difficult to imagine without giving up someone we really don't want to part with. If I'm the White Sox FO and everyone is calling me about Cease, I'm going to ask for the moon.
-
4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
First I don't think the awful ownership even cares or knows enough about any trades to weigh in. The evil Angelos strikes me as one only concerned about money and status. So I think Elias is free to make any trade without outside interference unless it would cost the ownership major coin, which none of these guys would.
I don't know what to say to the "what if young starters improve" piece? Except that they could experience an improved performance against lesser competition during spurts of the season, like we have seen already this year. But I just don't believe in the talent, unless we are talking about Grayson. I don't think Bradish, Kremer and definitely not Gibson are that good. Wells is adequate, but I would prefer that we not throw him in any games 1-3 in a postseason series unless it's in relief. In that scenario, the other team is liable to have a more talented/better pitcher on the mound.
I think just about everyone is on the same page as you. I'm no expert but just saying how difficult it could be to get the perfect young arm in a trade. A rental starting pitcher is usually the best most teams can do. Trading for a young, elite, low-cost proven MLB starter is difficult to imagine without giving up someone we really don't want to part with. If I'm the White Sox FO and everyone is calling me about Cease, I'm going to ask for the moon.
-
10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:
One should have nothing to do with the other. Means should be viewed as a bonus, not a necessity or something that we are going to have to depend on in order to win in the Fall.
Yeah I pretty much agree with you, but you have to be realistic when you consider who owns this team. Still, a trade for Cease or someone like him could fall through for reasons outside of the Orioles' control, which could push them to go for a rental type instead. Maybe even more important, if the O's are still playing this well a month or two from now and the young starters have improved, then there will be less urgency to add any starter right now, other than Means. But I agree with you they should work to acquire one in any case before the season ends, preferably someone longer term.
-
3 hours ago, Frobby said:
I must say, it’s hard for me to recall a deal that involved more than two top-100 prospects. I guess the Juan Soto deal sort of did, if you count Gore, who had lost prospect status but had been very highly ranked at one time.
Unless it's now more true that elite bats -- young or old -- are more plentiful/available in a trade than elite arms. If so then, all things more or less equal in terms of age and talent, an elite pitcher could cost more than Soto. Seems more true when people here are having a hard time of thinking of anyone other than Cease as available -- except for veteran rental types.
-
3 hours ago, Frobby said:
I must say, it’s hard for me to recall a deal that involved more than two top-100 prospects. I guess the Juan Soto deal sort of did, if you count Gore, who had lost prospect status but had been very highly ranked at one time.
Unless it's now more true that elite bats -- young or old -- are more plentiful/available in a trade than elite arms. If so then, all things more or less equal in terms of age and talent, an elite pitcher could cost more than Soto. Seems more true when people here are having a hard time of thinking of anyone other than Cease as available -- except for veteran rental types.
-
2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:
I believe that team with all those young player editions would eventually have the best offense in baseball. But would take a while to get there. The problem is that this year's team is ready to win now ADN we only have Adley for 4 more years. Plus, with all of that great offense, I'm not sure that we could win with this subpar pitching staff/organizational pitching talent.
Grayson is the best that we have and there is NO ONE coming who is even close to him. Or for that matter even in his tier as a prospect. We gotta find better pitching from somewhere or the great offense won't matter in the end.
John Means has looked pretty close to a TOR starter in the past. Naturally the O's want to see if he can step in to his old self when figuring out trade possibilities. Not that having both a healthy Means and someone like Dylan Cease would be a problem, but Means' level of effectiveness when he returns could influence whether the O's try to trade mid-season for a long term solution or more of rental (or somewhere in between).
A Realistic Pitching Ace And What It Will Take to Acquire Him
in Orioles Talk
Posted
We had a debate about what it would take to get Cease in one of the other threads. As a comparison, when the O's traded Bedard he was only 2 years away from FA, and the O's got 5 players for him, including Adam Jones who had already had a decent taste of the majors. And Bedard, as good as he was, came with durability issues.
But as Cease is not pitching that well right now it could also mean the Orioles may not want to risk trading for him and target someone else, or that the WS hold him back as they may not sell low on him. Of course the WS could claim Gunnar isn't really hitting yet either.
If I'm wrong and Elias can get Cease for as little Gunnar and Stowers (like someone else suggested), I think it's really hard not to make that trade even if Cease isn't pitching that well yet. Best case scenario for the O's in my opinion is, if Cease is still underperforming, that they get to keep Gunnar and Holliday and have to trade 5 players (like the O's got when they traded Bedard) -- just for fun maybe something like DL Hall, Westburg, Norby, Seth Johnson and Samuel Basallo. I think the WS will want some pitching in the return, not just hitters. I'm no expert here of course but love to follow trades and find the negotiation part of it fascinating.