MarCakes21

@Tony-OH Where does Carter Young fall? I was excited about him as an overslot guy in 2022, with a chance for upside, but it doesn't look like he performed thus farm.

I'm actually not a fan of these types, I think they hit less than desired at the big league level so their eye needs to be amazing. In my mind, there's too many Estuary Ruiz/Jorge Mateo/IKF/Billy Hamilton types in this group. Now I'm hoping for more from Bradfield, but not expecting it.

Would you do Cowser for Burnes? Westburg? Kjerstad? After those three I think lower tier and you'd be giving up multiples.

Nothing wrong with it, I agree with the approach. I'd like to maximize the return I get for some combo of Santander/Hays/Westburg/Cowser/Ortiz/Norby/Stowers.

This seems to be the going rate, ie what can we get for some combo of Cowser/Ortiz/Norby/Stowers.

I agree after Tony's write up. I think a lot of us were thinking less of Mayo until then (except Roy). I wouldn't pull the trigger either, but a Burnes trade puts this staff near the top in the bigs.

ESPN proposes the big move of Burnes for Mayo straight up. Who bites?

I don't think I'd do it because I always like our guys more, but it's probably close, and I like Kirby a bunch. I'd rather a package of guys for Kirby/Gilbert, or move down to lesser pieces for Miller/Woo.

Another option is to play safer and go something like Norby for Hancock. We can put Hancock in the minors and have him penciled as our 6/7 guy when injuries happen.

Why? And why Woo over Miller?

Good point. I'll pay Robertson 1/$7 instead. I didn't realize he was out all of 24.

My realistic: Trade Santander, Ortiz and Norby for Bryce Miller Trade Mateo OR Urias for MIL depth Sign Hector Neris 2/$16 Sign Liam Hendrix 1/$7 Let's the young guys play, slots in a 3/4 behind GRod/Bradish and around Means/Kremer. Strengthens the back end of the pen. Gives full time ABs to Kjerstad, with a time share for Mountcastle and O'Hearn again. Allows you to bring up Holiday as soon as you're ready.

Not that its a perfect site, but BB trade value has them at the following excess value: - Mountcastle (13.6) - Santander (5.3) - Ortiz (13.8)/Norby (8)/Beavers (4.2)/McDermott (2.1)/Povich (5.1) Miller and Woo are 25.8 and 24.6 respectively. Hancock is at a 4. If you treat these as true value, I think you'd be looking in the Miller/Woo range as possible. I don't think I'd want to to give up Beavers/McDermott/Povich in the deal, so would look more at a package of Mountcastle OR Santander + Ortiz/Norby

Not in the Orioles situation with the readily available hitting assets in the minors, but I see what you're saying. I also don't think it's far off to trade Santander/Kjerstad/Norby for Bradish. 12 years of 1st division/potential all star plus one current 3-5 hitter.

Probably right. Soto gets you about 20-30mil in current excess value. Gilbert and Kirby could get about 15mil excess per year for 5 more years.

For sure Soto is scarier. But would they have to give up Gilbert or Kirby for one year of Soto?

This is where I am. I'd prefer Gilbert/Kirby, I just think the ask would be more like Santander+Kjerstad+Norby, maybe more. Which I think I'd still be okay with.

I'd be willing to trade from both out ML ready prospects, or our current ML talent. Cowser/Kjerstad hold more value than Hays/Santander long term, and maybe even more straight up than Miller/Woo. I would target Glibert if you were to give up one of those guys.

I would do this for Miller.

Would you hang up the phone and not call back? They have Robbie Ray and Luis Castillo to go with Marco Gonzales already. Plus Kirby/Gilbert/Miller/Woo/Hancock. They need a MOO piece thats ready to compete now. So what offer would you make if you were the Ms GM?

Something I see occasionally talked about is a Mariners/Orioles ML talent trade. I think this is where we'd want to be because: 1. It clears some playing time for our upper level ready pieces 2. It gives us ML pieces in return with controllable years https://www.si.com/mlb/orioles/news/seattle-mariners-seen-strong-trade-fit-duo-orioles-veterans https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1760855/why-seattle-mariners-trade-fit-could-be-playoff-contending-orioles/ https://sodomojo.com/posts/the-mariners-should-look-to-the-orioles-as-a-potential-trade-partner-this-offseason-01hdhpf9pamv/2 Assume Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are off the table for our ML pieces (Santander/Hays/Mountcastle). What offer would you put together for: - Bryce Miller - Bryan Woo - Emerson Hancock For me something like Miller/Woo for Santander/Hays + Fabian or Hancock for Santander Who bites?

I'm on the yes side. I think we have some ML ready talent ready to put up a 100+ OPS+ metrics in his place and Bieber can fill a back end slot. We also talk a lot of trading Santander, there's many ways you could shake this. If you think you can get more out of a signing for ERod + a trade for MIL pieces for Santander than you do that too. I'd take 3-4 pieces from another team if theyre willing to pay to allow some current slots to open up. Same thing with Hays. But you have to be able to sign the SP too. The other option is a straight ML for ML trade with SEA.

I'm surprised by the youth movement here. Is it because they'll be cheaper? If you lock them up for 8, you'll only be getting ~2 extra years of each of them. With Adley/Grayson/Bradish, and even some of the older guys, you can buy out a lot more, plus still have all the youth. They're more known commodities at this point and will obviously cost more, but you can ensure you know what you have in the way of talent.

Why’s that? Think you can just replace them after they reach FA?

Let's assume the payroll was unlimited and you were GM for a day. Your goal is to optimize the competitive window for the team and you can lock up any FIVE players on 5-8 year contracts (including minor leaguers). Which ones are you taking? Think the Braves approach where they know they have an elite team and want to keep the majority of it together to maximize their chances. - Adley (25yo, all star catcher) - Gunnar (22yo, ROY SS/3B) - Grayson (24yo, TOR pitcher) - Bradish (27yo, #4 Cy Young in 2023) - Holliday (19yo, in AAA, likely to arrive this year) - Basallo (19yo in AA, likely to arrive in 2025) - Kjerstad (24yo ROY candidate) - Mayo (21yo In AAA) - Westburg (24yo versitile and in the bigs) - Bautista (29yo elite closer out in 24) - Cano (28yo all star reliever) - Santander (29yo 1st division RF) - Hays (28yo 1st division LF) - Mullins (29yo 1st division CF) - Other???