Sydnor

Bibee and Williams are in the Guardians rotation. Espino had surgery and is out for the year. I’m sure there is a price for which they would trade one of Bibee or Williams, but it’s not Kyle Stowers and Cesar Prieto. It’s probably Cowser or Kjerstad plus.

I would call Cleveland and see if they are willing to move James Karinchak. They sent him to AAA despite decent numbers this year (he has an issue giving up HRs and has a couple of really bad outings). His command has been worse than usual, leading to the HRs and a 6.48 walk rate. The K rate is still about 12.4 per 9. Last year the K rate was over 14 and the FIP was a 2.29. Karinchak is under team control until 2027. They need hitters (particularly in the OF). I think there could be a match, but I don’t think Cleveland would give him away.

Santander has 1 defensive run saved in RF, -2 outs above average, and a positive UZR and UZR/150. Hicks has -2 DRS in LF, -3 DRS in CF, and 0 DRS in RF (20 innings), 0 OAA across the board, and a negative UZR and UZR/150 in LF and CF (not enough innings to measure RF). Playing Santander in RF over Hicks is not indefensible based on the advanced metrics, as the only metric that favors Hicks is OAA.

When Hicks inevitably gets hurt, I could see McKenna getting recalled, but Palmer was giving off some end of days vibes there (not that I think Palmer knows anything about what the front office thinks).

Dean is really good when he can command the ball. I wish he could do it consistently.

I don’t think his talent level is as high as the others that they’ve promoted from AA, and they were kind of forced into it by Albies injury last year. Regardless, I agree that the promotion won’t have a negative impact on him.

It worked well for a while, but Vaughn Grissom is back in the minors (just doing the contrarian thing).

He had a ball in his hand, caught the Cowser ball, and threw the one he already had into the stands. I see guys do stuff like that all the time.

Understood. You responded to me, so I didn’t want you to misrepresent what I wrote. To be clear, I’m not advocating for a Marlins approach. But I wouldn’t mind acquiring Cole, Pressly, and Verlander types for the staff by using some of the minor leaguers (I’d prefer they keep Mayo, Basallo, and Ortiz).

I don’t know if you were just reading what you wanted to read, but I didn’t dispute or address anything in your response. I simply addressed where I thought the bitterness came from. I did not say I was bitter. The only thing I’m disappointed in was the lack of opportunity afforded to Joey Ortiz. With respect to your question at the end, it seems rhetorical, but of course I’d like to see the team win. I don’t particularly care where the players come from. If the players leading the team to the title are homegrown, that’s great. I see them play in Norfolk when I’m down there. Some of them have been extremely nice to my 5 year. If they trade some of them to acquire a difference maker or two that lead the team to the championship, that’s also great. If they sign Ohtani and he’s the one leading the team to the ring (I realize they won’t be signing Ohtani, this is simply an example) that too is great.

I think it’s the hype. There seems to be more hype for prospects today than I can ever remember. There are some that seem to think that everyone in the top 100 is going to be a star or at least an above average regular, when that is not even close to true (I’m not referring to this Board when I say some, more Twitter, etc.). The national media feeds the hype. When you take all of the hype, and then you add to the fact that people had unrealistic expectations for what Gunnar would do as a 21 year old in his first professional season (I think he has been very good) and Adley’s mediocre first half based on expectations, and you start to get skepticism, which can come across as bitterness. You also have people who don’t just “root for laundry” that see players get called up as their favorite player(s) losing playing time. I don’t know that this necessarily applies to Cowser because I don’t think Hays or Santander will lose playing time due to his call up, but that sort of thing can create “bitterness.” I’ll be honest, I don’t just root for laundry. I still root for Machado and I always will because we can all fan in our own ways.

I agree with you. As others have speculated, it makes me think Hays’ injury might be a little worse than anticipated. I hope it isn’t because I’m not sure how many opportunities he will get to play in the All Star game, and I’d hate to see him be unable to play.

Going into today, he was 2 OAA with a positive UZR and UZR/150 at first.

Sorry. I just can’t get behind a guy who said his karaoke song is Party in the USA by Miley Cyrus (Kjerstad). (Just trying to lighten things up a bit.)

I don’t think he would corrupt any of the players on the team, but I don’t want Chapman regardless of whether he’s the best reliever that the team can acquire. I completely understand the team’s middle relief issue, but I don’t want to root for a guy who choked his girlfriend, pushed her into a wall, retrieved his gun, then fired 8 warning shots, leaving her so thoroughly terrorized that she fled the premises, leaving her infant child inside. I hope he is not acquired.

I think we all would. I mean Urias is objectively better than Frazier at second defensively (by DRS, OAA, and UZR) and has been above league average offensively for the past 4 years by wRC+ and OPS+, but he doesn’t make $8 million, so here we are.

They acquired nothing for either Yaz or Phillips. Phillips is a key cog in the Dodgers bullpen and has been worth 3.0 fWAR/4.3 rWAR since joining the Dodgers. Yaz has been worth 10.6 fWAR/11.4 rWAR since he was acquired for Tyler Herb. That’s more than a modicum of success. Phillips would be under team control through 2027. He seems better than players like Akin, Gillespie, etc. I didn’t say Phillips would have changed anything in the last 5 years, but I’d love to have him the pen right now. I also did not say Yaz would have changed anything in the past 5 years. But, he has been accumulated more WAR than either Hays or Santander. In fact, he’s 60th in fWAR among position players from 2019 to the present. Seems like he might have value in a trade for more than Tyler Herb. The organization did not give Yaz an opportunity to play in the majors. He was in the organization for approximately 5 years. Those were Duquette years. Elias traded him during spring training in his first year with the organization. I don’t know if you read what I wrote, but I said that the organization, like all organizations, will not be infallible in evaluating players. I don’t expect them to be perfect. But in discussing Ortiz v. Westburg, if the organization thinks that Westburg is better, it’s possible that they’re wrong, and we can think differently. Some players that they trade will have productive careers, the trick is to keep the players that will be the most productive. In a sense trading or waiving the most productive players is a failure. I’ve heard Elias discuss how giving up on JD Martinez was a failure by the Astros front office.

All of that is fine, but that’s not what you said in the post that I responded to. You said 34 and 67 were not close in your opinion. I was simply providing you with information regarding prospect evaluations. I agree with you that the organization seems to value Westburg more highly. However, the organization, like all organizations, will not be infallible in evaluating players. Evan Phillips and Yaz are two examples of players that they whiffed on.

Here is an explanation of why the gap between 34 and 67 isn’t as significant as you’re making it out to be. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/ And now, a few important things to keep in mind as you’re perusing the Top 100. You’ll note that prospects are ranked by number but also lie within tiers demarcated by their Future Value grades. The FV grade is more important than the ordinal ranking. For example, the gap between Padres shortstop Jackson Merrill (No. 10) and Yankees shortstop Oswald Peraza (No. 40) is 30 spots, and there’s a substantial difference in talent between them. The gap between Peraza and Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee (No. 70), meanwhile, is also 30 numerical places, but the difference in talent is relatively small. You may have also noticed that there are more than 100 prospects in the table below, and more than 100 scouting summaries. That’s because we have also included the 50 FV prospects whose ranking fell outside the 100, an acknowledgement both that the choice to rank exactly 100 prospects (as opposed to 110 or 210 or some other number entirely) is an arbitrary one and that there isn’t a ton of daylight between the prospects who appear in that part of the list.

The career numbers in the minors aren’t all that significant. Ortiz changed his swing after the 21 season and then tore a labrum that took him some time to recover from. All anybody is saying is that the offensive gap isn’t as significant as some people are making it out to be. Obviously, Elias disagrees, so it’s all moot.

Nobody on this team is irreplaceable, not even Adley. I’m talking about 60 days. Earlier this year, you said he should play 4 games per week based on a 20 game sample in April. He had a 120 wRC+ last year. He’s in his age 28 year. I believe that he is continuing to get better. I do think scoring runs matters, and he, helps the team do that. You said he was overrated. I disagree. I don’t think either of us is going to change the other’s mind. I probably shouldn’t have even gone down this road because I don’t think it provided any real value, and I don’t particularly want to argue with you because I do think you make good points on other topics.

You aren’t the only one. I also prefer Ortiz. Before the season, Fangraphs did too, ranking Ortiz 67 in their top 100 with a 50 FV, while Westburg was not ranked and given a 45 FV. Law ranked Ortiz 95 and Westburg 73. McDaniel ranked Ortiz 71 and Westburg 66, with both in the 50 FV tier. So Westburg was generally rated more highly, but I don’t think the gap is as significant as it is made out to be. Also, after you get past the top 20 or so the gap between the 30th ranked prospect and the 80th ranked prospect isn’t as significant as the gap between the 1st ranked prospect and the 10th.

In the last 60 days, he has a .909 OPS. These guys aren’t metronomes who are going to be at +/- .020 of their finishing OPS all season. He had a bad start. He’ll probably cool off again. Regardless, removing his bat from the lineup would have a significant impact if we look at the last 60 days. By way of comparison here are other players’ OPS over that time frame: Rutschman .754 Henderson .868 Hays .850 Mullins .827 Urias .698 Mountcastle .672 I don’t think they will trade Santander during the season, so I don’t think this really matters. Elias has said things in the past about his bat that leads me to believe he values him pretty highly for the lineup. In contrast with you, I think he’s often underrated by the fan base because he’s not one of the rising prospects, wasn’t acquired in a big trade, and didn’t rise though the system like Mullins and Hays. I could be wrong though. It’s just the vibe I get when I talk to people at games and when people think he should be the one to go to make room for Cowser.

Is it possible that you underrate Santander? You’ll say something like “he has only been worth 1.4 fWAR to this point, that’s not an everyday player.” I get it, he wasn’t great in April, since he has been consistently good and great for stretches. But I also think more nuance is required. Switch hitters with 30 HR pop don’t grow on trees. His 130 wRC+ is second on the team and his .357 wOBA is second on the team (not including Hicks and O’Hearn, who don’t have large enough samples). His defense is RF isn’t nearly as bad as people here seem to think at 4 DRS, a .3 UZR, a 1.7 UZR/150, and -1 OAA. The offense he provides to this lineup, is unlikely to be offset by some defensive gain in RF, particularly given that he’s DHing several times per week. People love to say Mateo shouldn’t be playing everyday despite a .7 fWAR because he’s a black hole offensively. I don’t disagree with that. But if we can use nuance with Mateo and not just say “but fWAR!,” why can’t we use a little nuance with a guy who has numbers showing he’s been their second best hitter for the past 1.5 seasons?

I don’t think that is fair. I think some people, myself included, think Ortiz didn’t get a meaningful opportunity. The hype video and real number suggest that they are going to give Westburg a real and meaningful opportunity. I personally prefer Ortiz as a player and just wish that he had been given the same opportunity. My preference could be wrong, but I think people are allowed to be a little frustrated with the lack of opportunity that Ortiz was given.