Sydnor

I’ll credit Kjerstad’s leadership (this is sarcasm).

I was speaking about replicating production this season when the goal is to win a World Series for the 1 season that we have Corbin Burnes. I hope you’re right that the accumulation of talent is too big to go wrong, but I am a much more cautious. I like where Cowser and Westburg are at, but I’ll need to see it for more than 3 weeks (though I have always had less doubts about Cowser). I’ll also need to see it from others as they get promoted. As much as I believe that Mayo is going to be elite, he still has to prove it. The track record right now is great, so I hope it continues.

The projection systems aren’t everything, but ZIPS for example projects Santander to have a wRC+ of 119, Mountcastle 110, Cowser 99, and Kjerstad 98. I know that the shiny new prospects are fun, but I think it leads to undervaluing what some of the more established players will produce, and the difficulty in replicating it. Offense certainly isn’t everything, and Cowser provides defensive value, which will help his WAR, but Kjerstad will not. I’m not including Hays in this because I think Cowser has already replaced him, but I do think replicating what Mountcastle and Santander will provide is more difficult than a lot of people think. Do I think Cowser will outperform the ZIPS projection? I don’t know, probably, but Jorge Mateo was electric and put up a 187 wRC+ last season through April 30th (I’m not comparing Cowser to Mateo, I’m just using it to show how early in the season we still are at this point). Do I think Kjerstad will outperform the ZIPS projection? Again, I don’t know, but having seen him play in Norfolk, he makes more contact than Cowser, but has worse plate discipline, so how does that play? Does he tap into the raw power or are pitchers able to induce weak contact because he can make contact with pitcher’s pitches? I also don’t like the jumps he gets in the outfield, so there is more pressure on the bat. This isn’t to say he won’t be a good player or that his peak won’t be higher than Mountcastle or Santander’s peak, just that replicating their production this year is not a given.

Coby Mayo is 22 years old, started the year in AAA, and currently is running a 1.043 OPS. At the same age, Cowser started the season in Aberdeen, where he had a .795 OPS. At the same age, Kjerstad wasn’t playing because of the myocarditis, so it’s not really fair to compare on that basis. However this year, Kjerstad’s OPS is 1.176, which is higher, but you have to remember that Kjerstad is 3 years older. In my opinion, having seen them both in Norfolk numerous times, Mayo is also better at third than Kjerstad is at RF. With respect to rankings, as SG said, everyone has Mayo in the top 30. That is not true for Kjerstad, and was not true for Cowser. I hope they all succeed, but Mayo is different. IMO, he’s the type of player you make room for.

No idea if Seattle would be willing to move him, but what would you think about a guy like Andres Munoz? Controlled through 2028: 2025: $2.5MM 2026: $6MM (team option) 2027: $8MM (team option) 2028: $10MM (team option). There are escalators on the option years based on games finished. I think he’s the type of guy that the pen could really use, but I am very high on him.

.930 OPS in the 3 games with a HR. So if we’re going with 3 game samples, I don’t think that “stinks,” but you do you.

It’s almost like he’s following the same pattern he did last year and will probably end up being the same 20% above league average hitter that he has been for the last few seasons. Tonight, he also had what appeared to be a nice catch based on where he was positioned, though I haven’t looked for the catch probability. I love conclusions made based on 10 or so games.

I do think it would send a positive message to the clubhouse to extend a player or 2 if the FO thinks it makes sense (and I’m sure they probably do for a Henderson and Holliday). Given that Houston has done so historically, I think they would like to do that here. I do think it shows commitment for whatever that’s worth. I remember last year that Adam Frazier did an interview on (I believe) the Foul Territory pod (might have been a different one) where he mentioned that the players were very aware of JA saying that the organization couldn’t afford to sign players to 9 figure extensions. I am sure they would prefer not to just feel like mercenaries. Regardless, I wasn’t trying to get this thread off track and appreciate the response.

I know this isn’t the question that you asked, but my recollection is that you worked on the business side for the Orioles at some point, so I think you might be able to weigh in on this idea: do you think there are business reasons to extend a Gunnar or an Adley? I know you’re view is generally that extensions are overrated by the fanbase, but that largely seems related to the idea that you are paying for past-peak years (if I’m off base here, it wasn’t intentional—just my recollection). I tend to think that from a business standpoint, an extension for a young player would not make a material difference concerning the amount of tickets sold, revenue generated, etc. and would really just make some people on X happy, but I don’t really have anything to support that opinion.

His FIP was a 5.24 and his xFIP was 5.91. I guess it wasn’t terrible but it wasn’t good. To me the largest concern was 3.80 K/9. I just don’t know how a pitcher can succeed in today’s game missing that few bats. However, I’m not pouring dirt on him, and don’t think any definitive conclusions can be drawn at this point, particularly because it is spring training for him. That being said, I have not had a lot of confidence in his ability to help this season because his recovery from TJS has seemed challenging. I hope I’m wrong.

I know everyone thinks it’s routine, but some guys still never return to form after TJS. Even when he pitched in MLB at the end of last year, he looked like a guy that had some good luck given that he wasn’t missing bats.

She lived with him in Norfolk. My wife saw them at the Cavalier (a hotel at the end of the boardwalk in VA beach).

Extremely happy for Ortiz. He was my favorite prospect in Norfolk last year. I still think that he’ll have a better career than Westburg. Unfortunate that he had to do it to us.

The point is, that if we extend Gunnar for 12 years and $300 million (I just made up a contract with easy math), he isn’t going to make $25 million next season. He’s going to make something like $2 million because it’s a pre-arbitration year. Then he’ll makes something like $7 million in 2026 $12 million in 2027, and $18 million in 2028. A mid market deal for a player (like 3 years for $45 million or 4 years for $56 million) should not impact the team’s ability to pay those salaries in those years. Extensions are about security. Teams don’t just hand exponentially more to players than they would make in those years when they structure the extension. “The Arb game” has nothing to do with this. It is about how extensions are structured and how a shorter term mid-market deal shouldn’t prevent them from paying those types of salaries in the early years of an extension (i.e., the first 3-4 years of an extension). If you don’t believe me, use the Internet and look up what Fernando Tatis Jr. has been paid in the early years of his extension or what Witt Jr. will make. Burnes is a completely different discussion, but again I don’t believe the team has any interest in extending him. The Lunhow/Elias/Mejdal Astros provide a decent blueprint to what I think they’ll do with respect to pitching.

I am not making the case to keep Santander here, although I think there is merit to it if the FO believes that his production is likely to continue in combination with his clubhouse presence and leadership, but a Santander extension (or a similar signing) should have no impact on the ability to extend Henderson, Rutschman, or Holliday. If you assume a 3-4 year deal in the $15 million per year range, those years are cost controlled for Holliday and Henderson, so the salaries wouldn’t be astronomical in those years of the extension. Adley would be a bit higher, but he still has 3 years of arbitration, so his salaries would also be lower at the beginning of an extension. I don’t know if I’m being clear, but what I’m trying to say is the team should be able to accommodate a mid-level signing (Santander or otherwise if they think it makes sense) in addition to an extension or extensions of those players because those players will be paid lower salaries at the beginning of those deals, when the mid-level salary is on the book. With respect to Burnes, I believe that it would have an impact, but I don’t see a scenario where Burnes stays in Baltimore unless he signs an extremely under-market deal, which I do not believe he will. Based off what Houston did, I do not believe that the front office believes a 7-10 year investment in pitching is a wise choice. I could also be very wrong about that, but it is my opinion until proven otherwise.

They’re also not playing the worst team in the International League anymore.

I am certain that this will be met with a healthy dose of who cares, but Tony Kemp is a good dude.

Westburg also has an OPS below .650.

For what it’s worth Kiley McDaniel is very high on Etzel, higher than I ever saw any prospect evaluator on someone like Toby Welk. He ranked Etzel 11th in the system, graded him as a 45 FV, and predicted him as the above 40 FV breakout this year. I’m sure his thoughts were shared elsewhere on the board, but I’ll share them again here for simplicity: On the other hand, Etzel was completely unknown to most teams before he broke out in the MLB Draft League in 2022 after playing at a Texas junior college. He turned down the low-six-figure interest that clubs mustered because of his short track record and went to Southern Miss but had just an OK spring and eventually went in the 10th round of the 2023 draft (ranked 230thon my final rankings). Things clicked in pro ball, and in 30 games up to High-A, Etzel hit .323/.455/.510 with 12 extra-base hits, 21 stolen bases and a near-even strikeout-to-walk ratio with underling metrics to match. He'll be 22 years old as the minor league season begins and might go from 10th-rounder to a real prospect in Double-A in under a year. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39444467/2024-mlb-prospect-rankings-american-league-team-list I have only seen video, but Etzel is a very interesting guy. Hopefully, he will be an exciting follow this year. The first three games are definitely a good start.

Same.

Fastball sits around 96. Can get it up to around 100 when he needs to. 87-89 mph slider that is plus. Also throws a curve. He had a problem with walks when he was younger, but he has cleaned that up a bit, but it can still be a problem. He was a second round pick out of high school with a lot of arm strength, and the Pirates have done a pretty nice job developing him.

My counter argument here would be that the team is very different now. They were platooning Frazier at second. So Mateo would start at SS, Gunnar at 3rd, and Westburg at 2nd (Urias had a heel injury last August IIRC). When Mayo arrives, you don’t need to platoon him against left handed pitchers. They might initially platoon Holliday a bit, but if they do, I would imagine that it won’t happen for a long period provided that he hits as projected. Moreover, I would think that Urias would be the platoon partner. I could be wrong, but the idea of using Mateo in the outfield seems to be a way to justify keeping him to be the 26th man on the roster, and I would expect him to be used in that manner barring injury issues.

Mayo would be my starting third baseman on opening day, but I think they’re initially going to give Westburg some run.