Sydnor

I assume you approve of this pick @Luke-OH

@Luke-OH I apologize if you have already commented on this and I missed it, but like Meoli in the copied tweet, my recollection is that Stanford was known for teaching swings that suppress power. Do you know if that is still the philosophy employed by Stanford, and if so, do you think it would add to Stowers’ upside?

I’d like to think that we can all agree that he has 80 hair.

Stewart is staying when Davis is activated on Tuesday and Sisco is coming up.

I voted Rutschman because he seems to be the safest pick, but am I crazy for preferring Abrams over Witt and potentially over Rutschman if Abrams gave a bigger discount?

I have a few questions about Hinds: Do you think he has the most raw power of any high school player? Do you know if he’s singable (my recollection is he has a LSU commitment)? What position do you think he can play adequately? Thanks for all the work on this. I enjoyed the article.

I’m terribly sorry that I said two weeks instead of three weeks. It doesn’t change my opinion. As to your assertion concerning Ruiz’defense, I don’t see it. The only difference is that Ruiz looks better at third than Núñez did. The numbers seem to support this. Renato Nunez’ UZR/150 at 3rd base in 2018: 10.5 Rio Ruiz’ UZR/150 at 3rd base in 2019:10.1. The numbers say Ruiz’ defense is slightly worse than Núñez’ defense at third. I did see a runner beat out a routine ground ball to Ruiz a week or two ago. Nevertheless, it doesn’t really matter because I doubt either one is on the team when he is not making the minimum (unless one of them dramatically improves).

Fangraphs has articles about prospect valuation, and how it plays into trades: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/ Using MLB Pipeline’s rankings Valera is a 50, Oviedo is a 50, and Hankins is a 50. That’s probably too high. Fangraphs has Valera as a 50, Oviedo as a 45, and Hankins as a 40+. While I don’t think this is necessarily the gospel, Fangraphs says that a 50 position player is worth $28 million, a 45 pitcher is worth $4 million, and a 40+ pitcher is worth $3 million. Thus, Cleveland would probably want at least $35 million in surplus value for that package. Mancini was worth 1.7 fWAR in 2017 and -.2 fWAR in 2018. This year he has been worth 1.3 fWAR so far. If Mancini settles in at 2 wins per year, and he’s paid about $20 million over the next 3 years, he will have surplus value of only $15 million. That’s one reason why I think a trade like this is unlikely. That being said I enjoy watching Trey play. I also hope he can bring a package like this to the team and think that despite his limitations he does have some value.

He also has 60 raw power. I don’t think Núñez is part of the team when they’re winning again, but I also don’t see any reason to DFA a player with 60 raw power over 2 weeks in May, particularly because the losses are in consequential. I’m also not sure his defense is significantly worse than Ruiz’. Although Ruiz makes the routine play more consistently, my recollection of Núñez at third was that he was erratic, but had a stronger arm and a better first step, allowing him to get to balls and make plays Ruiz would struggle to make (but I could be very wrong).

I would be shocked if Mancini could net one of Valera, Oviedo, and Hankins, much less all 3. Oviedo is a fringe Top 100 guy for some evaluators, Valera was their big international signing two years ago, and Hankins slid in the draft last year due to medical concerns. As I understand it, they consider those players to be a big part of their future. I also think there’s a decent chance the Indians try to retool on the fly and sell Brad Hand, Bauer, and maybe a couple other pieces.

If I am having a hard time with some of these threads. I see people saying that Sisco can’t catch and can’t hit and Mullins is a platoon player. We all know what the numbers say, but if there’s one advantage to being terrible, it’s that we have the opportunity to see if Sisco and Mullins can prove otherwise. Sisco has a legitimate pedigree as a former top 100 prospect and while Tony has explained why the odds may now be stacked against him, perhaps player development under Elias and Sig will result in improved performance. If it doesn’t result in improved performance, that’s okay too because the difference between losing 95 and 105 games is inconsequential and we’ll have a better understanding of what Sisco and Mullins are (or are not) as players.

Why would you want Jackson or anyone to platoon with Mullins? It does not matter how many games the Orioles win. I understand that he has struggled against LHP (.662 OPS in 2018 at Norfolk and .604 in 2017 at Bowie), but shouldn’t we want to see if he can make adjustments and prove capable of playing against LHP this year rather than making him a platoon player at 24 years old?

What other options? I don’t see a lot of major league first basemen in the system. In fact, I only see one, but I’d prefer that the organization doesn’t make that move yet. So, are you referring to 4A players like Rosa, Dosch, and Anderlin Rodriguez or do you want to give up on Mountcastle at third and move him across the diamond?

Fangraphs has a nice article on Lowther up: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/orioles-pitching-prospect-zac-lowther-has-vexing-funk/ While not particularly illuminating, it’s nice to see a prospect get some positive press and has a few quotes from Lowther.

I’ve seen many posts similar to this. I am keeping an open mind, but am somewhat curious as to how the Orioles are going to use all of the slot money acquired if VVM and Gaston elect to play in Miami, New York, or somewhere else (I am aware of the Walton report on VVM). The overwhelming majority of the top level talent has signed (or is otherwise committed, such as Jose Baez Ramirez, Jose Ramirez’ younger brother, to the Indians) and I can’t envision the organization spending its current allotment on fringe players just to do it when such players are unlikely to make a substantial impact. If it was possible to carry over the unused portion of the allotment to 3 years from now, I would find the slot money more valuable as hopefully the organization will have established some relationships in the international market at that time. Given that it isn’t possible, the organization seems to be in a VVM and Gaston or bust situation.

This is certainly a fair take. Given that the organization seems to have insisted on dumping O’Day’s salary, I’d probably feel a lot better about the trade if the organization had received one of Toussaint, Allard, Wilson, or Wentz instead of the Phillips and Zimmerman. However, that may have tilted the overall value of the package beyond Gausman’s excess value.

I always thought Calvin Maduro did the best he could in international scouting while operating with both arms tied behind his back. It appears that he is still a scout for the organization, but could anyone confirm? With respect to the Gausman deal, I think my issues with it are three-fold. First, I find it difficult to refer to Encarnacion as a “headliner” with his very apparent flaws, as I don’t think the trade really had a headliner. Second, without knowing how important the money is to the organization (I assume very), I would prefer that they be buying talent (e.g., a better prospect by not dumping O’Day into the deal, similar to how the Braves bought a competitive balance pick by absorbing Matusz’ salary) after offloading salary in the Machado, Britton, Brach, and Schoop deals. Third, notwithstanding @CamdenDepot’s tweets that the trade was roughly equivalent to the Gray deal in terms of value, I’m finding it difficult to believe that the organization’s most valuable asset (in my opinion) brought back only a lottery ticket, a potential back-up catcher that purportedly can’t catch, a bullpen arm, and a senior sign that is unlikely to be more than an org guy. In contrast with the Gray deal, it’s hard to sell this as a quality return because much of the value is tied up in dumping salary and quantity.