Sydnor

There are thing that measure exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit rate. None of it is particularly meaningful because Ortiz hasn’t been given a meaningful opportunity to play, but they don’t scream slap hitter. His barrel rate is 8.3%. His average exit velocity is 88.8 mph. His max exit velocity is 109.8 (56th percentile). His hard hit rate is 48.8%. For someone who isn’t a threat on the bases, he isn’t slow. His sprint speed is 28.3 ft/s (78th percentile). So, while he might not steal a lot of bases, he appears capable of taking an extra base.

To your point, his cutter is getting hammered. Against his cutter, batters are hitting .302 with a .603 SLG. The cutter is his second most used pitch. It was a much better pitch for him last year (.259 BAA, .356 SLG). I like Kremer and think that he can still improve (not to the top of the rotation, but just to be a better back end option) particularly when I see him throw a 97 mph fastball. If he could find better command of the cutter, that would be a good place to start.

I split my time between my primary residence and our place in VA Beach. I saw Westburg and Ortiz both play last year at the end of the season and this year in April. I’m not a scout, but Ortiz is not a light hitting middle infielder. He drives the ball. Westburg has a little more over the fence pop, but Ortiz can take people out from gap to gap. I have seen him go out to right center in Norfolk. To these eyes, he swings and misses less and has more range and a better arm defensively. I have written numerous posts basically saying the same thing I’m saying now (citing stats such as wRC+ and OPS, etc.), which is that you can think Ortiz is a better prospect both in the field and at the plate. I personally do. I’m not knocking Westburg, I just really like the way Ortiz plays the game. Also, if Joey can’t get ABs, I’m not sure why people think Westburg will be a higher priority, particularly given that Westburg isn’t as good as Ortiz defensively anywhere on the dirt. As I have discussed previously and has been discussed in this thread, Westburg isn’t in a different tier offensively, he just hits more HRs. He just has more of a hype train behind him with the MASN guys and has been more highly rated by MLB and BA in their prospect rankings (Fangraphs rates Ortiz higher).

Have you actually seen both players play or are you just looking at the fact that Westburg hits more HRs and has a marginally better OPS to arrive at your conclusion that Westburg is a better option?

It’s a little soon to refer to Joey Ortiz as an easy out, isn’t it? He has 30 plate appearances, some of which have been as a pinch hitter, and he has been used as the weak side of a platoon. Expecting consistency from a young player accustomed to playing everyday in the role that Ortiz has been given seems more than a little unfair to me. Also, Ortiz at Norfolk this year, Ortiz has a .943 OPS and a 129 wRC+. As a comparison, Westburg has a .952 OPS and a 133 wRC+. Ortiz is not a no hit, plus defending middle infielder. He can hit, I just don’t think he has been given an opportunity to show what he can do.

You’re absolutely correct. Six everyday or almost everyday players (Hays, Mullins, Adley, Henderson, Santander, and Urias) are currently solidly above average by wRC+. Hicks and O’Hearn are also way above average, and have helped cover the Mullins absence (along with Gunnar’s heater), though I will be very pleasantly surprised if they maintain an above average wRC+. The offense has generally been very good. I’d like to see Ortiz get more opportunities during this call up because I think he could join those six.

Good point. I think I forgot Vavra is on the team because we haven’t seen him lately. I also think you’re correct that he would be the one to go.

Unless he performs absolutely terribly, I’d be very surprised if Hicks was not on the roster for the remainder of the year. First, Elias acknowledged that they were talking to Hicks prior to Mullins sustaining the groin injury. Second, James McCann has been a right handed DH fairly regularly for the team. Hicks can play right and slide Santander to DH, removing McCann from the lineup. In his career, Hicks has a career 103 WRC+ against left-handed pitchers, and has a 110 WRC+ against them this year. McCann has a career 106 WRC+ against left-handed pitchers, and has a 42 WRC+ against them this year. Although McCann has been slightly better against left-handed pitchers in his career, Hicks has been significantly better in the last 3 years. I would bet on Hicks performing better than McCann. Third, because they are dealing with players and agents, I just don’t think you sign a guy like Hicks to DFA him as soon as Mullins is healthy or to bring up a prospect from the minors unless he performs poorly. Even then, I could see it being more likely that McKenna (who I like more than most on the Board) is sent down, and Hicks takes over that role with slightly more playing time. I could be wrong about all of this, but I think that given the above, and that he likely got some assurances when he decided to sign with the Orioles (because he could have waited for a different opportunity), Hicks will be on the roster for the remainder of the season absent extremely poor performance. I tend to think he will perform adequately because he was above replacement level last year and was trending above replacement level in May before NY DFA’d him. As a result, I hope Hicks performs well, and that he will build on the nice start he has had, though I’m certainly not counting on it.

This year Santander has a .980 OPS v. lefties. Last year he had a .913 OPS v. lefties. This year he has a .752 OPS v. righties. Last year he had a .720 OPS v. righties. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/anthony-santander/14551/splits?season=0&position=OF&split=0.2

I agree with all of this. The Astros also added veteran hitters to the lineup through free agency. They gave Josh Reddick a 4 year deal at age 30. They signed Brantley to 2 year deals at age 32 and 34. They signed Beltran when he was 39. Is Elias going to sign Santander? I don’t know, probably not, but maybe they view him as similar to Reddick. Are they going to extend Mullins? Again, probably not, but maybe they try to get him on a shorter term deal than Altuve, but do want to extend him because they view him similarly to Altuve. I do think just assuming Elias will trade every player as the player becomes expensive is not necessarily accurate because everything he has done at this point is very similar to what the Astros did, and the Astros have never simply relied on prospects at all positions to carry the lineup. What he will do in the future depends a lot on the support of ownership and we don’t know what that will look like (though I have my doubts as to the kind of financial support that ownership will provide).

He was stealing on the pitch. I highly doubt he could’ve gotten back. Stuff happens.

This is just not true. There seem to be some who believe Ortiz is a slap hitter who cannot drive the ball. Ortiz can drive the ball. I don’t know where to find statcast data for minor leaguers (I don’t think it’s publicly available), but he had an average exit velocity of 94.5 mph earlier this season (https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-prospect-watch-15-american-league-minor-leaguers-with-wild-stats-including-trade-bait-dairon-blanco/amp/). By way of comparison, Adley’s average exit velocity this year is 88.5 mph. I’m not saying that his EV will exceed Adley’s at the major league level. I’m just trying to illustrate that Ortiz drives the ball. It’s fine to prefer Westburg, but to act like Ortiz can’t drive the ball is just wrong. I’ve also seen them both play and I’ve see Ortiz hit HRs to left center, right center, and straight away center. He smoked a double to left center in Toronto. I’m sure he’ll struggle some when he receives a greater opportunity at the major league level, but he is a good all around hitter.

Ortiz was optioned.

I’ve seen them both at Norfolk and would be really disappointed if they traded Ortiz. Less swing and miss than Westburg. I think Ortiz will get to 15 or so HRs per year because he of his contact skills. He also is a better fielder and has better arm strength than Westburg. I just think his strengths are significantly stronger than Westburg’s. While Westburg has more power, I don’t think the gap is as substantial as some think because Westburg has more swing and miss in his game. I think you put Ortiz at second next to Holliday and you have a tremendous MI.

All of the guys who started the season at Norfolk. I should’ve been more specific. Not trying to have a hot take, I just really like Ortiz’ game.

Well said. I think Ortiz is going to be very good, and would give us top of the scale defense at second, so even if he slumped with the bat, he would be providing value that Frazier does not if his hitting declines. But, I am a big Ortiz fan. When I first saw him in Norfolk, he (and Gunnar) just looked like pros to me. I loved his elite reactions, hands, and ability to make contact. He is the reason I hated the move to sign Frazier. In fact, this might be outlandish and I’ll probably be wrong, but if I had to bet on 1 prospect to hit his 90th percentile outcome, it would be Ortiz.

Hays has a .691 OPS and 91 WRC+ in May. I’m with you on Adley and Mullins, not Hays. The beauty of this lineup (thus far) is that they have managed to get contributions from different guys at different times (as noted in your post).

It’s not. In his last 1210 plate appearances, his OPS is .679. His WRC+ is 94.

Shane Bieber. We match up well with Cleveland. They lack potential impact bat prospects outside of Rocchio, Valera, and Bo Naylor and really need guys with raw power.

I think 10/$200 mm is probably about right, though I suspect it might take a little more through incentives that he would likely attain. If I was advising him, I’d tell him that a deal in the 8 year range makes no sense. He’d cash in to a larger extent by entering FA at 30 than he would at 32/33 if he signed an approximate 8 year deal. I’m sure there’s an amount of money that would get an 8 year deal done, but it’s probably similar to what he would accept for a 10 year deal. I’m just going to enjoy the ride as long as he’s here.

I’m not sure it’s a quotable, but perhaps my favorite thing Ben has said this year is “Yes!” when Santander caught Andujar’s fly ball on Saturday night. It wasn’t quite a yell, but it was a little louder than normal. I don’t think he intended it. He was just rooting for the team like we were, and that was pretty cool in my opinion.

What bothers you the most about his defense in right field? Is it the 1 DRS, the 2 OAA, or the 2 RAA? What damage is shown by those metrics?

I’ve seen them both several times in Norfolk, and I personally don’t think the offensive gap between Westburg in Ortiz us as significant as it is made out to be. Ortiz doesn’t have as much pop, but makes more contact. I think it’s more of a question as to what you prefer, but I’m a big fan of Ortiz and think he’d give the team exceptional defense at second and give the team consistent professional ABs with a low strikeout rate.