jamalshw

I think some of it is also a showcase of him. His highest value is as an elite defensive SS with blazing speed. We know is offense is lackluster, but given his July/August run there's at least some level of hope he can be a bit more. I think the "break glass in case of emergency" scenario where he's play somewhere other than SS is less likely than them trading him. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that a trade could happen this spring sending Mateo somewhere if injury strikes a starting SS. We already saw it with the Dodgers and Gavin Lux (though they already have Miguel Rojas) and the WBC makes it even more likely to see again. And in the far more likely scenario where he stays with the Orioles, as pointed out there's very few scenarios (if any) where him playing anywhere but SS makes sense. I could squint my eyes and see a situation where getting him some reps in CF makes sense (if we don't keep McKenna on the roster but even so Hays is probably the backup for CF before Mateo would be), but in terms of the infield, I want him at SS. In any combination of infielders that include Mateo, he's at SS. Henderson moves between 3B and SS depending on if Mateo is in the lineup. If Henderson gets the day off and Mateo is playing, Mateo is still at SS with Urias likely at 3B...and, of course, later in the year, you have Ortiz and Westburg. I agree that the Orioles LOVE versatility, but that's more when they view a player's key trait to be his bat. For Mateo, the vast majority of his value comes from his defense at SS, moving him to a different position probably means the team is better suited to use a different player.

I'm in SC. I can watch all any game other than Braves. So that means nearly every Orioles game.

If you're just standing over there dancing around, sure, it's a waste of energy. But the whole point of the thread is stealing. That's the other element. So if there is a net neutral on the "disruption" factor, you still end up with the net benefit of the steal--provided the runner has a good success rate. So I still want the likes of Mullins and Mateo trying to steal where possible.

So you are saying it's still a slight (very, very slight) edge on the disruption to the pitcher/defense. But, even if it is a net neutral on the "disruption" not more of a disruption to the batter than to the defense he's playing/hitting against. It then comes down to a the specific batter as I'm sure some would be more impacted than others.

Enough to further distract the pitcher and give Adley even better pitches to hit. With the limited times throwing over and the pitch clock there will be more pressure on the pitchers when guys that can steal are on. I wouldn't mind the threat of Mullins going to get in the pitchers' head and cause him to rush a bit. Of course all that said, I don't see either guy stealing 50 bases. I think 30-40 is about tops for Mullins and less than that for Mateo as I don't think he gets enough playing time to get more (though he could find himself in quite a few pinch runner situations).

To be a legitimate playoff contender, you need to be just a bit over .500 given the extra playoff spot. Are they a legitimate World Series contender? Not really (though if you make it to the postseason and get really hot/lucky...but I digress). This team is a legitimate playoff contender because I can tell a non-farfetched scenario where they make the postseason. Of course, I could one where they barely eclipse 70 wins as well. In all likelihood, I expect them to miss October baseball again, but I do think they'll be in the hunt at least in early September.

Chance is the key word. Does he have a chance to? Yes. If asked do I think he will put up a solid year? The answer is no. But it could happen and was certainly worth the minimal investment to find out. In 2016 and 2017 he did enough at 21 and 22 years old to expect him to be at least an above average regular for a long time. But he failed to really grow too much from there. Sure, his OPS went up in 2018 and 2019, but his OPS+ was 96. The Rangers gave up on him being anything more than an average (to a tick below average) corner OF which has minimal value. As you noted, from there, his career fell off the table. He completely lost it in Chicago and that carried over to Detorit. He was good in a few games in the Dominican Winter League last offseason, dominated the PCL last year and then had another 96 OPS+ season in 55 games with San Diego. I don't know if the pandemic shortened 2020 impacted him more than others, if there was an injury, or if being traded away did something to his confidence. Regardless, he clearly lost something and wasn't able to recover in 2021, but his 2022 gives hope that he could be the same guy that showed up last year and in 2018 and 2019: the ever so slightly below league average offensive performer. He's got a shot to win the last spot on the bench. He's also got a shot at playing time if Hays or Santander or Stowers go down early in the season before Cowser is ready. I could come up and have a hot streak and surprise. But, I would wager, he'd step in and be serviceable. If he stepped in and finally put up an OPS+ north of 100, it certainly would be a surprising season and one I'd give a low (but none-zero) percentage chance of happening.

I don't really think one of them does need to be traded...yet. But that said, one of them probably does at the deadline or next offseason, but not because of the Frazier signing, but because (hopefully) two of Westburg/Ortiz/Norby earn their way to the Majors as everyday players. With that, you basically have 2B/SS/3B all covered along with Holliday, Mayo, Wagner, Bencosme, etc on the horizon. One of Urias or Mateo would make sense in a utility role. Frazier will likely not be back next year unless something goes wrong with the prospects.

This...and honestly, I'm okay with it. Basically, Mateo and Frazier are platooning with each other. I do think we will see some games against RHP where it may be Mateo at SS and Henderson at 3B while Urias is off as he may "get a ton of playing time" but is still probably going to be shy of the playing time someone like Henderson gets. It won't be a straight platoon situation with Mateo/Frazier, but I do like the sound of Mateo not being an "everyday" player and Urias likely to be close to one.

I agree he doesn't need to be dominating, but I think this year is bigger than just availability (which given he's going to be slow played this spring is already off to a bad start). Obviously health is huge, but beyond that, I think this year the Orioles could make the decision to go with him as a back-end reliever over a starter based on what he shows in terms of command, particularly with his secondary pitches. Obviously, developing a pitching prospect into a shutdown back-end reliever is still a win, but it's a bigger win if he's a top/mid-rotation starter.

This is not about what we expect to happen, but if you had to choose a couple things you'd like to see this spring, what would they be? For me, I'd like to see, mine revolves around three key players: 1. Kyle Stowers - I'd like to see him have a great spring, get plenty of ABs against LHP and earn himself the chance to start some agianst them, and get some time at 1B. With Hays/Mullins/Santander/McKenna/Frazier/Vavra all likely to at least get some time in the OF and with Cowser on the way, I'd like to see Stowers get more ABs and spelling Mountcastle at 1B may be the option here. If Stowers can can be the backup 1B, that also minimizes the need carry a backup 1B on the roster and opens up the last spot to any position. Do I think this happens? No. But I'd like to see it. 2. D.L. Hall - I'm going to assume Rodriguez makes the Opening Day roster (assuming health) based on what has been said to date on him. I do think Hall starts in the minors unless he bumps someone like Akin from the pen. That said, I'd like to see him show improved command this spring and cement himself as a rotation option rather than a bullpen one. I don't expect him to win a spot in the rotation nor am I even looking for that, but I'd like to see him slow enough command improvement that he solidifies himself in the team's mind as a starter. He can go to AAA and be the next man up when someone goes down in the rotation. Having him be a starter goes a LONG way for this team and minimizes the chances we see Zimmermann or Watkins in the rotation at any point in 2023. 3. Gunnar Henderson - We all know he's on the team and going to be a key part of whatever success the Orioles have in 2023, but I'd like to see him given a legit chance to take the starting SS job and show he can handle the position well defensively. I get that Ortiz is a superior defender (as is Mateo), but Ortiz is starting in AAA and I'd prefer to see a lineup with Henderson at SS and Urias at 3B (at least some of the time) rather than Mateo at SS and Henderson at 3B. I'm fine with some moving around, obviously, but would prefer to not see Henderson stuck at 3B and Mateo in the lineup most nights (despite how fun he is to watch defensively and on the bases--that would also allow Mateo to serve as a defensive replacement late in games and a pinch runner).

I think D+ is fair. I don't have a problem with any of the moves on their own (Frazier, maybe), but it wasn't enough. Gibson is fine. I like Irvin well enough. But...I would have preferred Irvin and, say, Bassitt, instead of Irvin and Gibson. I'm okay with McCann. He's a fine veteran backup, but his recent past leaves plenty to be desired offensively, though I do like his historical success against LHP--and any backup catcher is going to be flawed, that's why he's a backup. Givens is a solid addition to a bullpen that needed another arm or two. Frazier is fine. I know most don't like his addition and honestly, I'd prefer to see Westburg and Ortiz given the chance to battle it out for that spot (or given the chance to claim SS and 2B with Henderson at 3B). That said, it was clear Elias was going to add a LHH. I do like Frazier having the versatility to play 2B and move to OF if/when Westburg/Ortiz are ready and if/when Hays falters or an OF gets hurt. In all, I do think the depth on this roster is VERY strong. The problem is we were expecting a higher end addition based on comments at the start of the offseason and we didn't get that. We got depth signings. That said, we do seem to be well positioned with options should someone go down. I just wish there was one more top/middle of the order bat and one TOR starter.

Not that it matters, but I thought the report date was tomorrow, not today.

This is an interesting idea. I don't think they send him down unless he doesn't look good in the spring, but given he has options, it's a possibility. It's also possible he could be used as a guy they send down later in the year when they need the fresh arm. I assume Politi doesn't make the team unless he surprises, but that could happen. I do think they'll stretch out both Voth and Wells in spring and we will see if all 5 projected starters get through March healthy, but assuming they do, I could see Wells piggybacking Rodriguez for at least the first couple starts. I imagine they'll stretch him out very slowly. We may see 4ish innings from each of Rodriguez and Well the first few times through the order. That would allow Wells to stay mostly stretched for a few more weeks and save Rodriguez a few innings.

I think we as a fan base are a bit lower on Hays than we maybe should be. We view him as injury prone and while he certainly was early in his career particularly after his 2017 debut for a few years, he played in 131 and 145 games the last two years respectively. That's not bad at all in today's game. Granted his average and OBP aren't great and I'd love to see him get that OBP up a good 20 points, but he has some pop with doubles and homers and managed to be above average offensively according to OPS+ (albeit only slightly) each of the last two years. He's a solid 2 WAR type player. He's not a star, but he's a solid player and given the promotions of Rutschman and Henderson and more help on the way, I hope he slots in at a more appropriate spot in the order for him (around the 7-hole for me). He's not a guy that should be hitting in the top half of the lineup, but he's also not a guy I'm eager to replace. If he can net something in a deal, I'm not opposed to moving him if you can replace him. Cowser and company aren't quite there yet and someone like Profar is probably going to cost more than the benefit you get for moving Hays, particuarly given his weak second half likely gives other teams pause much like it does us.

That really depends on what the team looks like in August. We do get the extra two guys for September. So maybe not a 6-man in August, maybe in September. But by the end of the year, the team will need to be careful with Means given he's coming back from injury, Rodriguez as he'll be well beyond (hopefully) the innings he's thrown in any other season...

I think the development system was his biggest downfall. Though the blacklisting from S. Korea isn't great either. They could draft well, but not develop well as evidence by some of his draft prospects thriving in the new Orioles environment. On a side note, I blame Angelos and company more than DD for the delay (and ultimately the poor execution) in selling off the core of the 2012-2016 teams. I think its better practice to bring in a new GM to down the dismantling. As unbias as someone tries to be, its got to be harder for the GM that built the team to dismantle it without some level of bias.

I could see Rodriguez basically get 75-80 pitches a start. I could also see Wells or Voth get spot starts here and there to give Rodriguez (and the rest of the rotation an extra day off here and there). Once Means is back (and assuming we aren't decimated by injuries) we could also see a 6-man rotation in place throughout August. Back to the original topic (Means), I know we heard July from Elias, but I still have him in my mind as more of an August guy. It'll also be interesting to see how he actually looks this year as guys coming off Tommy John can sometimes be slow to bounce back.

I'm not sure Means will be ready in July. I think it's safe to assume a few injuries, but in lieu of that, I think when Means does come back, it will add a 6th man to the rotation and not replace anyone. I hope Grayson earns his way to be the defacto #1. Kremer, Bradish, Irvin and Gibson round out the 5 with Means making 6. In all likelihood, someone will go down and Wells or Voth (or maybe both) will step in. In a perfect world, Hall will prove himself as a starter in AAA, showing improved command and will be in the rotation in place of an injured starter ahead of Wells and Voth. That said, I expect Hall settles in as a back-end reliever.

Law likes to go against the grain. Sometimes he is right. Often not. I have no issue with Carroll 1 and Henderson 2. And while Holliday is below some other guys from the draft, the phrase "I can see why the O's wanted him with the first pick..." is about the best you can hope for from Law who can be stubborn with his picks and double-down longer than he probably should when proven wrong. I still remember his love affair with Adam Hall. I get the bullishness (to some extent) on Cowser as Tony seems to share the opinion--at least to some extent, but it's interesting how much he dropped for Law despite having a solid season (even if the numbers against LHP were rough and the Ks were up).

Profar may make sense IF we trade Santander or Hays in a deal for a pitcher, but otherwise, I don't see that there's a spot.

It'll be interesting to see if Profar does sign first. I'm wondering if some teams are looking at Profar as a replacement for whomever they trade. It's a lot easier to trade a solid OF bat if you can turn around and plug in a player coming off a 3 WAR season with a 111 OPS+.

I think we should expect something like we got last year which, while disappointing compared to 2021, was still a 3.8 WAR player. Ultimately, I expect something similar to last year. I will be a bit surprised if it's worse, not really surprised if a bit better, but rather shocked if it's more in line with 2021.

The fact he's going with a 6-year deal shows that whatever the injury was, it was something significant given his initial 13 year and 12 year offers. It's a lot less of a risk for a team that already had him to commit half the amount of time.

I'm not sure I want him either, but we are going to insist on a left-handed hitter that can play 1B, then I agree. Belt is the guy.