jamalshw

I honestly don't know. I think the Orioles could beat any of those teams. That said, I also think any of them could win three against us and knock us out. That's the way of the playoffs. I'm not going to be rooting for or against anyone in the wildcard round because if I root for a team to lose and we get the matchup I wanted and they lose, I'm going to be even more depressed about the loss. I'm just going to hope for them to need all 3 games and for both teams to wear out their pitching in the series.

If the Orioles win the division series, I'll be going to my first ever postseason game for Game 1 of the ALCS. I wasn't able to swing it in 2012 or 2014. I got tickets down in the LF corner so my view may not be great, but will be excited to be there and experience it in person.

I got 3 tickets to the ALCS Game 1. Not the greatest seats, but a new view for me.

He got a bunch of hype when he came up. He had a 1.063 OPS through his first 16 games showed speed and power and was exciting to watch, but he's been bad in the second half. The league adjusted and he's not adjusted back. He's got a .181/.261/.340 slash line in the second half and is just 7-for-42 with seven walks and one extra base hit in September. That initial first impression propped up the perception of him for a while, but the sheen has worn off.

I think we all know the situation here. The tear is minimal enough that he hasn't already gotten the Tommy John surgery. It's probably a matter of time. But he's out 2024 regardless and likely back at or near the beginning of 2025 whether he has it now or in November. If he can get back to 90% of what he was before the injury he can be useful in October and if he's on board with that as well (obviously there's a Players Union issue if they're making him tough it out) then it's worth seeing if he can get back to where he was (or close to it) and just pitch though October (or until the ticking timebomb says its over). Would he be throwing right now if the Orioles were say where Boston is? No. Will he manage to throw a competitive inning this year before the playoffs are over? Maybe. But to me, he's such a difference maker for this team that it's worth a shot given the downside (2 months delay in his TJ surgery) is minimal.

I think it depends on the usage. The idea of pitching back-to-back days and all is what could potentially add stress. But if you are limited to using Ohtani as a DH to protect his ability to pitch and can only use him for an inning at a time every couple days, is that more beneficial to a team than just having him as an outfielder (which by all accounts he's plenty athletic to do at a high level)? Maybe. But it's not a clear yes to me. And given all the restrictions and the fact he's still likely to be quite expensive (though no where near what people thought just a few days ago), it probably makes him a bit too much trouble.

"Stop doing things that are so stupid that the entire country is talking about it and we'll stop writing about it" PURE GOLD!

You have far more insight than me and far more connections and knowledge of this team (and in particular this situation) than I do. That said, I completely appreciate this post as it represents my thoughts as well. I love watching broadcasts where Brown is the announcer and the experience without him in the booth is a significant downgrade in my opinion. While I appreciate that John Angelos taking over has seemed to open things up for a bit of progress on the field with Elias and Sig and an improved international presence. The truth is, this, and the kerfuffle with Dan Connelly, and the goings on regarding the stadium lease all (at least from the outside looking in) seem to be self inflicted wounds created by John Angelos which continue to cast a shadow over what should be nothing but a joyous season.

To answer the OP, no I don't send down Cowser for Ortiz. I would DFA Mateo and give the role to Ortiz, but I'm not heartbroken if that doesn't happen either. I fully expect Ortiz to have that job next season and Mateo to be non-tendered. Now do I send Cowser down when Hicks or Mullins are ready to come off the IL? Yes. (Unless he turns it around before that)

I went with a C. I've liked what we've seen from Fujinami so far, at least the last three outings, but we are still dealing with a pitcher with a below replacement level WAR. Most of the bad came as a starter and he's been strong of late, but given the limited MLB track record, it's hard to get too excited. Obviously the price was right and for what we gave up it's a good trade, but it's not quite enough on the RP side. As for Flaherty, the deal is less of a slam dunk, but still not a bad one, the problem is it's still not quite enough. We needed rotation and bullpen help. We got both so I give it a passing grade.

When the idea of Flaherty was a hypothetical a couple weeks ago, I said I'd be okay with the move and still am. The price was a bit steeper than I'd like, but not completely insane. The real test will be to see what he looks like in an Orioles' uniform. If the coaches (or algorithms) identified anything that can be fixed/tweaked to yield better results--or at least continue the results he had in July. If so and he pitches like his July numbers the rest of the year, it's a good move.

Yeah. Norby is having a solid, but not great year in Norfolk (though he has gotten hotter lately). And D.L. Hall, while still an interesting arm, has lost a LOT of luster. I'm not sure they bring nearly enough to the table alongside Ortiz who would be the centerpiece of the return in the deal in this thread. And going away from Ortiz towards Mountcastle, makes it worse, not better. Ultimately, if you want Ohtani, it's going to take a package led by two of Kjerstad, Mayo and Ortiz along with someone like Hall who has lost some luster but still has upside or maybe someone like McDermott. To get Ohtani, even with our stacked system and even just as a rental, it would have to hurt. Which is why it doesn't make sense for this team.

For some reason, they've loved Henderson in the leadoff spot lately. I think the they'll put Westburg at 3B and Frazier at 2B (though I agree that I'd rather Urias) and I think they they'll mess up the order quite a bit as well.

When i say if "they feel that he can get back to his 2019 production--or at least more his 2021 production", I'm not talking about getting there in a year or two, but this season. If they're confident a small mechanical tweak and/or different pitch mix is the issue, the change could be rather quick. If they're not, then I agree with you. As I said, if the production so far this season is what they expect going forward...I am not interested.

It seems the general consensus is no on Flaherty and yes on Montgomery. I'm actually somewhat interested in Flaherty, but it really depends on the price point and what Elias and Sig think of Flaherty. If he is what he is at this point and they think is 2023 production represents about what we can expect from him (when healthy) moving forward, I'm not interested as the upgrade is minimal. If, however, they feel that he can get back to his 2019 production--or at least more his 2021 production--then, I'm quite interested provided his cost is based on his 2023 production. As to Montgomery, I have interest in him and he's probably on a shortlist of starters I'd target along with Giolito.

I think the Orioles will push this off a bit longer. There's no need for a 13-man pitching staff at the moment. The bullpen only covered 5 innings in the last two games and the team has 4 days off. Granted, it's likely that Bautista and Cano pitch an inning today, but that's still a well rested pen for Friday. It feels like Rodriguez is coming back soon so if you had to go to a starter in relief in an emergency, Grayson can make the start instead. There's also a few guys on the roster that can be sent down (Vespi, Bazardo) for a fresh arm if the pen gets heavy use out of the gate in the second half. It makes more sense to ride a short pen for a bit. Even if they do opt to go to a 13-man staff, I don't see Cowser or Westburg as the victim. Both have been good (Cowser's numbers not the best, but he's looked good) since their promotion and both have played regularly. It's not an Ortiz situation. Elias and company are treating Cowser and Westburg as bigger prospects than Ortiz. It seems apparent based on their handling so far (even if we/I may not agree with that assessment). Frazier and Mateo are the weakest links right now. I'd keep Mateo over Frazier as a PR and defensive replacement, but given that's such a small role, it's not that big of a deal either way in my mind. Honestly, though, I could see the Orioles juggling a 12-man staff until the deadline with one of the veteran infielders included in a trade package (likely Urias).

I think the timing of these promotions are interesting in how they impact the trade deadline as well. With Westburg and Cowser in the Majors and Mayo now in AAA and Holliday in AA, its starting to further emphasize the depth we have to trade from. Ortiz getting promoted and yoyo-ed a bit up and down while riding the bench in the Majors shows that he's not as high on the Orioles' board and could be a trade chip. The same thing can be said about Stowers compared to Cowser. And of course there's Norby who seems to be getting squeezed in the middle with Westburg and Gunnar in the Majors, Ortiz clearly ahead of him in the "next up" category and Holliday creeping up from behind. With Westburg, we had Urias and Frazier ahead of him. It's no stop gaps that need to be unseated.

Now I'm going to be mad if this doesn't happen.

For me, it really depends on how each pitcher is throwing down the stretch. Gibson just had a great outing, but historically he's been far worse in the second half than the first half. He was an all star in 2021 and had a 2.87 ERA in Texas through 19 starts then had a 5.09 in Philly. He's a career 4.03 ERA pitcher in the first half and 5.11 in the second half. So while he had "some" playoff experience, I don't know if that's enough, particularly if Kremer or Grayson or Means had a very good September.

It depends how we define "touchable." I think most players are touchable for the right deal, but as for the guys we would be offering in trade talks, I do think Ortiz is in the conversation. Hall has struggled this year so I'm not sure how much that's impacted his value, but he'd be in the conversation as well along with Norby. I generally think the Orioles will shy away from dealing someone from the MLB roster (aside from Urias/Frazier/Mateo--but none of those are better than the prospects). Ultimately, they may just acquire the best arm they can get for a package of something like Ortiz, Hall and a further away prospect like Estrada.

I like a bit more speed at the top. I get Adley is fast for a catcher, but I like him in the #2 spot. He normally takes the first pitch anyway, which gives the lead off guy some time to time the pitcher if he's going to run. He's also prone to longer ABs which helps in that regard. If the lead-off guy gets on, you have someone that gets on base at a .378 clip who can help move him along. If he doesn't, you have a second chance to get someone one with just one out. Now that Mullins seems to be coming around, I'd like him back in the lead off spot. Even after his slump, he has a .343 OBP which is solid, plus the speed element that can cause trouble for the pitcher and split his attention. While Henderson is hitting, I'd love to see him in the #3 hole and Santander 4th. That gives you 4 straight lefties against a RHP and at least gives you a L/R/L/R split against a LHP. Hays 5th. O'Hearn 6th...and then I agree with your 7-9. Then you have a bench of Mateo, McCann, Frazier and Hicks. Mateo is a great bench piece as a valuable pinch runner (particularly in extra innings) and defensive replacement. I'd have him work on the OF to increase his value. I'm still not sold on Hicks being more than a flash in the pan (albeit a great one). If Mateo can prove to be a back up in CF (along with Hays) that allows the Orioles to move on from Hicks when/if he reverts completely to his Yankee form because you will have 4 OF in Hays/Mullins/Cowser/Santander in the everyday lineup and Frazier and Mateo to back up. If Hicks continues to be productive, Frazier is probably the most vulnerable guy.

I'm hoping we see Grayson Rodriguez back after the break and I'm hoping he looks more like we expect him to look. If that's the case, I don't see Means providing much from a starting perspective. He can fill the role the Zimmermann is currently filling. I think he'll prove to be an upgrade over Irvin as a fill-in. It also depends on if we add a legitimate starter at the deadline. Wells and Bradish have cemented themselves in the rotation. I hope Rodriguez does that after the break. Irvin is a fill-in. Both Kremer and Gibson are questions, particularly Gibson. He was good early, but hasn't been good of late. He's also got a 4.04 career ERA pre-All-Star break and 5.11 after. Means will have to earn his way back in the rotation in 2023 by showing he's completely healthy and the pitcher he was pre-injury. IF he does that, perhaps Gibson or Kremer go to the pen. But more likely, I see him as a multi-inning reliever with a low to mid 4 ERA which would be an upgrade to some of the last guys in our pen.

In his last 15 games at the MLB level he has been (9-for-57 with only 2 XBH, 2 BB and 20 K) and even after 2 hits yesterday, he has a sub-.600 OPS in AAA. I get it, it's a small sample size in the midst of a slump, but he's been truly awful. When he's on, he is very good, but he's way too streaky and until he gets hot (and O'Hearn cools down), he should be in AAA. As for non-tendering him, I think he just gets squeezed off the roster. Hopefully, he starts to rake in AAA and comes back and hits well in the second half. In that case, he's tradeable, but I think Kjerstad and/or Mayo eventually push him off the roster (unless they're both traded).

I'd argue that Frazier and Mateo should basically be bench players now without Ortiz. The regular infield should be Westburg, Henderson and Urias. With Ortiz up, that would push Urias to the bench (fine) and would mean one of Frazier or Mateo would have to be DFA'd to make room on the roster. I wouldn't mind that, of course, but I don't see the Orioles doing that. They love their depth. Of course a trade or injury could play into this, too, but I don't know that Frazier or Mateo have any value at all. Maybe Urias does? In my ideal world we would have an infield of Henderson, Ortiz, and Westburg with Mateo on the bench as a pinch runner and defensive replacement, Frazier DFA'd (we're too left-handed heavy anyway) and Urias also on the bench, playing the occasional 3B, 2B, and 1B. That said, Urias's splits aren't great against LHP which would be his primary role in this situation. Still, I think a bench of Mateo, Urias, Hicks and McCann is a strong bench with a regular lineup of (in no order): Henderson, Ortiz, Westburg, O'Hearns, Adley, Santander, Hays, Mullins, and Cowser.

If they would swap out Frazier for Urias that would be ideal.