DrinkinWithFermi

Just a bit of foreplay I still think they end up with Snell because Cashman can spend pretty much as much as he wants this offseason after their embarrassing and unacceptable 82-80 finish in 2023, and even if not, Stroman's signing still lessens the urgency for the Yankees to pay Cease's hefty pricetag.

Yeah, when you wait around at the bar on singles night until the very end of the evening to pick from whoever is as leftover and lonely as you are, you tend to end up waking up next to someone like Ubaldo Jimenez or Yovani Gallardo the next morning.

What he said.

I said that was contingent on if they sign Snell or not, and if they don't, then maybe they dig even further into their talent pipeline than they already have this offseason to placate Getz. I *do* think that the Dodgers are out for now, but of course they can do whatever they want because they have essentially infinity resources so you never REALLY know. Except in JD Martinez's case this year, everyone really knew they weren't re-signing him and why lol.

So who all would even still be in on Cease at this point? ATL, NYY (assuming they seal the deal with Snell), CIN, LAD, STL, SEA are all presumably out after adding other SPs. There aren't a lot of clear cut candidates anymore. BOS? SD? Maybe PHI if they decide to lean even further into the Super Team vibe? There's a very good chance that we are ultimately going to just end up with a Clevinger/Paxton/Ryu type anyway, so why not cut right to the chase and save everyone all of the angst? Also, that post was made with tongue firmly planted in cheek.

It would be kinda cool if, like, tomorrow, we just signed, oh I don't know, James Paxton or Mike Clevinger, and Mike Elias then made a public statement like "we're done adding to the rotation for the winter," and finally put all of this silly Cease business to bed before this thread turns into a bloodbath. Also, it would be kind of hilarious to actually see Chris Getz unironically price himself out of his own market. Suitors are seemingly dropping like flies and the Orioles were most likely their best hope for a really good return for Cease with multiple MLB ready pieces to plug in right away.

Ortiz really needs to either be in the OD IF mix in Baltimore or in another organization. No more jerking him around. McDermott will likely arrive this year, even if only as a bullpen arm for the moment. Johnson was injured or else he'd probably be here by now. I think he'll be fast-tracked to the MLB team if he gets off to a good start at whatever level they start him at. The others could be trade bait (as in "fourth or fifth piece/deal sweetener"), except for maybe Haskin, who was trending pretty nicely before he got injured so perhaps it's best to see if he gets off to a hot start and increases his stock value a bit before deciding what to do with him. It was nice that he made it through the Rule 5 draft, I think he could still develop into something of value, either to us or someone else.

There's no guarantee that Busch will be a good hitter at the MLB level, but Ortiz is already a good defender at any level. That gives Joey the higher floor.

None of the other stuff is relevant so I only quoted what was actually relevant. What is interesting about that? If the Orioles acquired Cease and he somehow underperformed Gibson's 2023, then I would be forced to consider whether there is something very wrong with our coaching staff and their methods.

I'm a lot more tepid on Cease than many others here, but this is just a ridiculous statement. His FIP was like 3.70 last year.

If he's healthy. If he's performing better than 2023. Both of those are big if's though.

And they're not entirely wrong. Ortiz has a much higher floor thanks to his defense though.

I'd hope he's close to finished developing, he's like 26 already.

Because you may walk away from the table empty-handed. If Cease gets injured or has another middling year, their return could go from something like Westburg/Povich/Beavers to something like Billy Cook/Juan Nunez.

If it is Mayo or bust for Getz, then the Orioles simply will not acquire Cease and that's okay. I would not. I would consider Mayo as the headliner in a Cease+Robert deal though.

This is kind of an interesting exercise. I found that for me, it's more like: Tier 1- Holliday, Basallo Tier 2- Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser Tier 2.5- Westburg Tier 3- Ortiz, Povich, Beavers, McDermott, Norby, Fabian, Horvath And so on. Had a bit of trouble deciding where to place Westburg- he felt too good and too "proven" to place down with the Norby's and Povich's but not quite good enough to place among the Mayo's and Cowser's, thus his own little sub-tier. I would not trade anyone above Tier 2.5 for Cease and I would not budge, but I would be willing to include guys from Tier 2.5 on down.

I think you are overestimating the value of 2-3 WAR COFs a bit is ultimately my main point here. Hays is a nice piece to have, but he's far from irreplaceable or even hard-to-replace. Also, his Baseball Savant page makes me think that trading him now will look pretty good in hindsight.

If you think Kjerstad has a good chance to be a perennial 35-40 HR guy for us and Ortiz's elite-ish defensive rep at SS is for real, then the second package is easily the way to go. No one in that one can match those 2 big time tools. (I would not do either package FWIW)

You said: All of that other stuff like age, contract length, and your opinion about whether or not Pham should play in the field is kind of extraneous to whether or not the Orioles would sign a free agent who could roughly replicate Hays' modest value. They're both LFs with low OBPs but still slightly above average overall offense and less than good defense. Hays was worth 2.5 rWAR in 520 PAs last year, Pham 1.5 rWAR in 481 PAs. The biggest difference is probably that Hays is better in the field, while Pham steals more bags. All in all, a perfectly reasonable comp in this situation. Not perfect. Not even necessarily very good. But reasonable.

Tommy Pham. That is a reasonable comp for Austin Hays among current free agent OFs. You don't think the Orioles would be willing to play in the Tommy Pham end of the FA swimming pool?

I'm VERY glad that I did not marry the girl I was dating at his age. Good luck, kid!

Wish in one hand, s*** in the other, and see which one fills up first

Or we could just add a different SP that doesn't require a crazy overpay.

Even factoring that into the equation, Cease is not worth Westburg and 1 of Kjerstad/Cowser. If Westburg isn't a good enough headliner for them, they can pound sand.

Just because you can afford to pay $1,000 for a meal doesn't mean the meal is worth $1,000. Likewise, we can definitely afford to give up Cowser/Kjerstad and Westburg for Cease, but that doesn't mean that we should.