DrinkinWithFermi

The more I think about it, the less likely I think it is that they actually pull the trigger on a Luzardo trade. With Alcantara out for 2024, they kind of need him to anchor their rotation. Trevor Rogers (3 years of control) and Edward Cabrera (5 years) should be available though, especially for immediate (and controllable) help since they plan to contend in 2024. Maybe Hays, Ortiz, and a pitching prospect or two for one of those guys? It instantly upgrades their lineup in 2 spots and adds an arm or two back into the pipeline while we get a controllable young high ceiling SP and clear a spot in the OF for Kjerstad, Cowser, or Stowers to claim in ST. That seems like a much better option from a long-term organizational health perspective than overpaying for 2 years of Cease.

He's heading into his age 33 season and his Baseball Savant page for 2023 is almost all blue. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/marcus-stroman-573186?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb Probably why he's still available for a 1 or 2 year deal in January and now reported to be throwing himself at the Yankees, who have apparently been ghosting him ever since. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/al-notes-mariners-white-sox-stroman-yankees.html#comment-3179928 He's a pass for me, we either need to aim higher or just give Hall the ball.

I'd probably rather just give Hall a shot at sticking as a starter than sign another #4ish guy tbh.

That is hilarious, I was just thinking about whether trading for Ray while he's still injured to try to get him for a bargain since the M's reportedly need to cut payroll would be a good move the other day. I didn't think it would actually happen IRL though. Crazy stuff.

And a floor of...*checks notes*... 2023 Dylan Cease.

I'll go with: E) None of the above

Just offer Miami something like Hays, Ortiz, Beavers, and an arm (or two) from outside of our top ~5-7 pitching prospects that they like for Trevor Rogers and bank on our braintrust fixing him instead of overpaying for the privilege of trying to fix Dylan Cease if Getz is still demanding so much that they are still "far apart" at this point. The Marlins are probably a better fit for us than CWS anyway since they want to contend in 2024 and would therefore potentially be open to splitting their return between win now and future pieces, which would in turn allow us to open up some playing time for the MLB ready guys like Kjerstad, Cowser, and Stowers.

Westburg is the biggest piece I would trade for Cease. No Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo, or Holliday. If Westburg+ is not good enough for Getz, he can getz lost.

Obviously not, we'd have to take Craig Kimbrel back to the store if we did that and John already threw away the receipt. We are the Baltimore Orioles after all, we simply can't go on wild offseason spending sprees like the Royals and Reds.

The true CF market is usually pretty thin and this year is no different, and Bader is very good defensively and he mashes lefties. It's a bit more than I expected him to get but probably still about right.

Honestly, I kind of wish we had signed him to that deal, maybe even tacked on a team option for next year. Why? Because: Harrison Bader vs. LHPs 2023: .299/.361/.575 Career: .262/.331/.494 That would be a massive improvement over this: Cedric Mullins vs. LHPs 2023: .233/.310/.398 Career: .229/.297/.359 A Mullins/Bader platoon in CF would have been pretty great, honestly. Oh well.

Yeah, that's a STFU and GTFO from me, dawg

Good, good...

Westburg is the most obvious trade candidate and the guy we should be shopping as the centerpiece of a package for a Luzardo/Gilbert type of pitcher. He's a stud IF with a full 6 years of control coming off of a solid MLB debut and he is pretty superfluous here in Baltimore thanks to Gunnar, Urias, Holliday, Ortiz, Mayo, Norby, etc.

If the rotation has been clearly and meaningfully upgraded, I would probably be fine with playing McKenna or Mateo in LF against lefties to start the year and upgrading at the deadline if no one else steps up and takes the job.

I think he got all the way up to like #27 or #29 on MLB Pipeline prior to losing prospect eligibility, though that may have partially been due to guys ahead of him also "graduating." Either way though, his draft pedigree, minor league performance, prospect evaluations, and solid debut definitely make him an incredibly attractive piece of trade bait, and the presence of Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo, Ortiz, and Norby makes him arguably our most obvious big time trade chip. Thanks, I felt like it needed to hurt at least a bit from an Orioles fan's perspective and also be something I would be pretty satisfied with if I was a Marlins fan, which I think that hypothetical deal accomplishes. I might even be willing to fold Baumann and the other pitching prospect into Povich if the bidding gets that intense.

Westburg was like a top 25ish prospect on MLB Pipeline so it is possible that he could be the headliner if the rest of the package is stout enough. Maybe something like Westburg, Hays, Beavers or Fabian, Baumann, and a pitching prospect they like that isn't Povich, McDermott, or De Leon? They would get a stud 2B/3B that already debuted and performed pretty well and still has a full 6 years of control as the centerpiece, plus 2 years of a solid everyday COF and a promising potential replacement for 2026 in Hays and Beavers/Fabian, an interesting arm with 5 years of control to tinker with in Baumann, and another young arm that they like to add to their pipeline- Armbruester, Bright, whoever. That seems like it would be a pretty good haul for a guy like Luzardo, who has shown a ton of upside but still has some lingering questions about his ability to carry a true rotation anchor's workload year in and year out.

I think that's probably right, but if Povich or McDermott can help us land a Luzardo type guy, who's a 26 year old TORish SP and has 3 years of control, I would hope that we would be willing to pull the trigger.

Teams want some young pitching in the return for their trade bait and many of the teams nibbling right now, like the Dodgers and Reds, have young pitching to offer. If we are going to compete in the trade marketplace for a notable starter, it may require us to part with a Povich or McDermott.

Trading Woo or Miller wouldn't help their financial situation, which has been reported to be not so good at present due to RSN issues (IIRC) and already led to the Eugenio Suarez salary dump to AZ earlier this offseason.

There has been some recent reporting that the M's may need to cut payroll and therefore Castillo might actually be the SP that they end up shopping, and there is no way JA agrees to take on his remaining 4 year, ~$90 million guarantee and $25 million dollar vesting option.

I would offer something like Ortiz, Povich, Beavers, and Baumann, and tell Getz to call us back if they find a better deal for 2 years of Dylan Cease coming off of his middling 2023 so we can congratule him directly

Not sad to see Sale leave the division, since he can potentially still be a beast if healthy, and also not sad to see Montas come off the board since I was vaguely worried that we might sign him lol.

The end result could easily be that many fans are left unimpressed with our "big" SP acquisition because it isn't a big name like Cease, i.e. Edward Cabrera or Trevor Rogers for Santander, Ortiz, Stowers, and a Domincan lottery ticket pitcher that they like.

The more I think about it, the less likely a deal for Cease seems. I just think Elias is extremely unlikely to part with any of the top 5 picks he tanked so hard to acquire (so no Cowser or Kjerstad), or the other elite prospects like Mayo and Basallo, and I don't think Chicago will take a larger package of lesser (but still good) prospects like Ortiz, Beavers, and Norby. I think one of the teams that are ostensibly trying to compete in 2024 that need offense and have pitching to trade like Miami or Cleveland might be a better fit for the O's since they might be interested in Santander, Mountcastle, or Hays as part of their return, which would lessen the prospect cost to some degree.