DrinkinWithFermi

There's no guarantee that Busch will be a good hitter at the MLB level, but Ortiz is already a good defender at any level. That gives Joey the higher floor.

None of the other stuff is relevant so I only quoted what was actually relevant. What is interesting about that? If the Orioles acquired Cease and he somehow underperformed Gibson's 2023, then I would be forced to consider whether there is something very wrong with our coaching staff and their methods.

I'm a lot more tepid on Cease than many others here, but this is just a ridiculous statement. His FIP was like 3.70 last year.

If he's healthy. If he's performing better than 2023. Both of those are big if's though.

And they're not entirely wrong. Ortiz has a much higher floor thanks to his defense though.

I'd hope he's close to finished developing, he's like 26 already.

Because you may walk away from the table empty-handed. If Cease gets injured or has another middling year, their return could go from something like Westburg/Povich/Beavers to something like Billy Cook/Juan Nunez.

If it is Mayo or bust for Getz, then the Orioles simply will not acquire Cease and that's okay. I would not. I would consider Mayo as the headliner in a Cease+Robert deal though.

This is kind of an interesting exercise. I found that for me, it's more like: Tier 1- Holliday, Basallo Tier 2- Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser Tier 2.5- Westburg Tier 3- Ortiz, Povich, Beavers, McDermott, Norby, Fabian, Horvath And so on. Had a bit of trouble deciding where to place Westburg- he felt too good and too "proven" to place down with the Norby's and Povich's but not quite good enough to place among the Mayo's and Cowser's, thus his own little sub-tier. I would not trade anyone above Tier 2.5 for Cease and I would not budge, but I would be willing to include guys from Tier 2.5 on down.

I think you are overestimating the value of 2-3 WAR COFs a bit is ultimately my main point here. Hays is a nice piece to have, but he's far from irreplaceable or even hard-to-replace. Also, his Baseball Savant page makes me think that trading him now will look pretty good in hindsight.

If you think Kjerstad has a good chance to be a perennial 35-40 HR guy for us and Ortiz's elite-ish defensive rep at SS is for real, then the second package is easily the way to go. No one in that one can match those 2 big time tools. (I would not do either package FWIW)

You said: All of that other stuff like age, contract length, and your opinion about whether or not Pham should play in the field is kind of extraneous to whether or not the Orioles would sign a free agent who could roughly replicate Hays' modest value. They're both LFs with low OBPs but still slightly above average overall offense and less than good defense. Hays was worth 2.5 rWAR in 520 PAs last year, Pham 1.5 rWAR in 481 PAs. The biggest difference is probably that Hays is better in the field, while Pham steals more bags. All in all, a perfectly reasonable comp in this situation. Not perfect. Not even necessarily very good. But reasonable.

Tommy Pham. That is a reasonable comp for Austin Hays among current free agent OFs. You don't think the Orioles would be willing to play in the Tommy Pham end of the FA swimming pool?

I'm VERY glad that I did not marry the girl I was dating at his age. Good luck, kid!

Wish in one hand, s*** in the other, and see which one fills up first

Or we could just add a different SP that doesn't require a crazy overpay.

Even factoring that into the equation, Cease is not worth Westburg and 1 of Kjerstad/Cowser. If Westburg isn't a good enough headliner for them, they can pound sand.

Just because you can afford to pay $1,000 for a meal doesn't mean the meal is worth $1,000. Likewise, we can definitely afford to give up Cowser/Kjerstad and Westburg for Cease, but that doesn't mean that we should.

There are questions about Mayo's ability to stick at 3B and Westburg could also chip in some starts in LF, which I think he has the speed needed to play at OPACY. His long term role here could even be as Cowser's platoon partner in LF if CC's struggles against lefties continue, while also filling in as needed around the IF on other days.

Do you actually have anything to back that claim up? I think the actual reason those pieces aren't really gushed over here is because they simply aren't all that important to our chances in 2024. They're complimentary guys that can be replaced pretty easily.

No. Hell no, in fact.

You act as if Markakis only had one good season when he also had a 4+ rWAR season to go along with his 7+ rWAR season, which Hays has not and most likely never will. There is also the matter of what to expect from Hays going forward. Take a look at Hays' underlying metrics on Baseball Savant if you want a sneak peek at what that might look like. Spoiler Alert- it's not very encouraging.

Comparing Nick's entire career, including his decline years, to just Hays' age 22-27 seasons is silly and worthless. Markakis in his prime was better than Hays has ever been or will ever be, and prime Markakis is a pretty realistic outcome for Cowser.

Nope, not even close.