DrinkinWithFermi

It's all about the starting pitching and it's not hard to see a scenario where ours is really bad next year. Like I said though, I don't think we're likely to see 90 losses or 90 wins.

What competition? The infield is set unless Mateo or Urias get traded, or an injury occurs prior to the start of the season.

90 losses seems a lot more realistic than 90 wins right now, but I'd expect the actual result to be somewhere in between, say 78-82 wins. Further roster moves could still change that, of course.

He's a free agent at the end of 2023, something in the contract he signed with Mariners makes him exempt from the normal 6 years of team control.

I had previously wanted Chris Flexen, but that was before we failed to upgrade the 2023 team in any meaningful way via free agency. He only has 1 year of control remaining so trading for him doesn't really make any sense now.

Now it's up to Vavra to salvage the Givens trade

It doesn't look particularly outlandish to me. In fact, it might even be a bit generous to guys like Baumann, Zimmerman, Bradish, and Hall.

Go Cubbies!

Being in one of the biggest media markets on Earth probably helps to offset the iffy payroll situation.

Our current Opening Day starter is either Kyle Gibson or Dean Kremer so bottom 3-5 is a pretty fair ranking for our rotation at the moment.

Yes, I am speculating. You are too. I doubt there is much reason to be concerned about that old injury since the Orioles, renowned/rebuked for their stringent physicals, were still comfortable giving him the largest (at the time) draft bonus ever even after seeing his results. I do agree that hammering out an extension with him this offseason should be an extremely high prioriry for the FO though, even if I do not think it's all that likely that he would be willing to sign one presently. There's only one way to find out for sure and that is to give it an earnest effort. Sadly, the ownership situation probably means that no meaningful attempt will be made because of the generally accepted premise that having no large contracts on the books increases the appeal of a franchise to a prospective buyer.

Lol, okay. Comparing the production we got from a roster spot in one year to the production we are likely to get from that exact same roster spot the next year when evaluating whether a year-over-year improvement has been made is "illogical." Seems legit Reasonable as ever, Frobby. Thank you. This has been my point since the day Gibson was signed.

Because that is the specific production from 2022 that Gibson is replacing in 2023. It's really not that difficult of a concept to grasp.

Of course, but if I was an elite player at a position of extreme scarcity that had already earned over $10 million dollars, I might not be in any rush to commit long-term to a team that has not made any meaningful attempt to improve after almost making the playoffs the previous season and that sells when within a couple of games of a playoff spot. Would they have still "sucked" if they had not been uprooted from their current situation and deposited into an unfamiliar one with added pressure? Tough to say. Maybe, maybe not. But I'd bet money that the players who stayed behind, like Adley, were not exactly thrilled to see solid (to that point) contributors removed from the team when they were within a hot week of a playoff spot, and it would certainly be a data point I would consider when deciding whether or not to sell the bulk of my best years to that team prior to reaching free agency.

Jordan Lyles' 2022: 179 IP, 4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 91 ERA+, 4.40 FIP Kyle Gibson's 162 game average for his 10 year career: 194 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 4.29 FIP Looks pretty darn lateral to me.

Unless he doesn't want to get a deal done. I certainly wouldn't if I were him right now.

I'm not saying he's a liar, I'm just saying that words are free, unlike meaningful roster upgrades

I have seen no tangible evidence whatsoever that would lead me to believe that this is the case.

He has already made enough money to live comfortably on for the rest of his life, so he can afford to bet on himself, and the Orioles have not made a good case for him to commit to the organization long-term. They have done the exact opposite in fact.

There's also that, yeah.

I don't see any reason to think he would. He's already banked over $10 million and is on track to reach free agency prior to age 30, which would likely mean that he could reasonably ask for a 5 or 6 year deal at an absolutely astronomical AAV as long as he is still producing at even roughly his 2022 level. Why would he pass on that opportunity and tie himself down to an organization that he has already watched trade away several good players in the middle of a playoff race and then follow up an 83 win season by signing a bunch of reclamation projects to one year deals? He appears to be the competitive type and his present organization does not seem to share that drive.

I'm pretty sure he's just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. Cool strawman

I was not making some blanket statement about fWAR's usefulness, it simply was not particularly relevant to what was being discussed. I have never once said that Lyles is better than Gibson, I have simply pointed out (correctly) that, on paper, replacing Lyles with Gibson is a lateral move, not an improvement. His 10 year career averages are almost identical to what Lyles produced in 2022. A team coming off 83 wins and aiming to contend should be improving, not making lateral moves that don't actually make the team better. The fact that he was Elias' top target as soon as free agency began is downright pathetic and speaks volumes about how serious he actually is about contending in 2023. If by "solid," you mean "below average," then sure. Means should not be factored into our 2023 plans at all. I didn't want him either. The guys we should have been going hard after were all gone by the time Eovaldi signed with Texas. They don't move the needle at all, and, in Frazier's case, block players who potentially could move the needle (i.e. Westburg) in 2023. For a team that claims to be trying to reach the playoffs, they don't seem to be all that concerned with getting better in any meaningful way. I agree, that was a solid move. The Orioles look like a 4th or 5th place team right now, which is exactly what they looked like at the end of 2022, and it's difficult to see how that changes in any meaningful fashion at this point. It didn't have to be this way but here we are.

I would actually be complaining with them if the rest of our offseason played out the same way as it has in this timeline.

Of course, but it's certainly possible to get an idea of what might be out there based on how teams have approached their offseasons and how their rosters are currently constructed. Besides, I am mostly talking about awful our offseason moves have been so far. There is simply no single move that could turn this offseason from an F to an A, not even trading for Shohei Ohtani.