DrinkinWithFermi

Huh? Ages 22-27: Hays- 9.0 rWAR, Markakis- 22.0 rWAR

FTFY

Narrator: And then the Yankees signed Stroman

It's going to be hilarious when, after ~350 pages of this thread, the White Sox just decide to hold onto Cease because no one caved and offered their farm system's entire top 10 for him.

If you are doing a long-term rebuild, sure, but I think they want to be back in contention by 2025 or 2026. It could also be argued that the lottery ticket types you are talking about are a dime a dozen as well.

Assuming that O'Hearn and Mountcastle start the year in a platoon at 1B, you could start Kjerstad in RF or at DH regularly. Hays could (should) also be traded to open up LF for Cowser.

At least one of them (but preferably both) should be getting everyday-ish ABs to start the year.

I'm not sure I would prefer an 18 year old Dominican lottery ticket over a guy with 5 years of control remaining who can reach 97 MPH on his fastball and has already had some success at the MLB level, and who can immediately take on some of their 2024 innings, but maybe the White Sox prefer that arrangement.

As a headliner, no, obviously not, but he was the 4th player in a proposed 4 player package that also included Povich and Ortiz.

Because they need someone to throw innings for them in 2024?

I think he's a very good prospect and that he would be getting a lot more buzz if he was not in such a stacked farm system. I was quite intentional in my choice of words. And I think the power will show up this year.

No one is going to give up anything of value for 1 year of a platoon 1B/COF who turns 31 in July, posted a combined 70 OPS in the 4 years prior to 2023, and will cost around $3 million in 2024.

He's turning into such a stud. Having him in the system almost makes me fine with trading Cowser.

Cease is a flawed but still very desirable asset. Not so desirable that I would make any of Holliday, Basallo, Kjerstad, Mayo, and Cowser available for his final 2 arb seasons, but desirable enough that I would be willing to go the volume route with guys who are very good prospects but not really critical to the next few years of Orioles baseball. Ortiz, Beavers, and Baumann all match that criteria; Povich is debatable, but they want pitching and the deal is going to have to hurt at least a little for us, so I am willing to bite the bullet on including Povich since Baumann alone likely isn't enough on the pitching side. All told, I don't think it's a crazy overpay or anything. Somebody else probably caves eventually and makes a dumb offer that beats the hypothetical Ortiz/Povich/Beavers/Baumann package rendering this all moot anyway. Well, extra moot really. We are just some nobodies goofing around on a fan-run message board at the end of the day

I would not do that deal and I don't think Mike Elias would either. The possibility of the Yankees acquiring him instead of us doesn't really bother me all that much. In fact, the Yankees acquiring him might actually be a net positive for the Orioles in the long run if they are meeting Getz's current astronomical ask or something close to it, especially after they already dealt away a sizable chunk of their farm system for 1 year of Juan Soto this offseason. They can spend every year but the Yankees were at their most dangerous when they could consistently sign the star free agents while also consistently producing their own stars like Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Petitte, Bernie Williams, and Mariano Rivera to fill out the rest of the roster around the big name, big contract mercenaries. That all said, I would be willing to include both Povich and Ortiz in a hypothetical Cease package, and there are plenty of other exciting guys in the Orioles system that could be included in the return along with them- Connor Norby, Dylan Beavers, Mac Horvath, and Jud Fabian for a few examples- so maybe Povich, Ortiz, Beavers, and Mike Baumann? Using MLB Pipeline's prospect rankings, that would be 3 top 11 guys from one of the best farm systems in the sport, including the #50 overall prospect in Ortiz, plus Mike Baumann, who is an interesting young MLB arm that pitched pretty decently in the bigs in 2023 and has 5 years of control left, and who could potentially help you backfill some of Cease's innings in 2024 or possibly be given a look in the late inning mix, where his up-to 97 mph fastball would look right at home. I might even be willing to toss in another lesser piece that Getz and his staff like- Max Wagner, Juan Nunez, Billy Cook, etc.

If we are using 1 year SSS noise from a 101 win team, then I will point out that we had a better win percentage with Irvin than Gibson and declare that, by simply handing Gibson's spot to Irvin, we have upgraded the rotation. BOOM, checkmate

I am confident that Wells/Irvin/Hall can replace Gibson's middling production. If we aren't going to add a clear and obvious upgrade, then I would rather chase upside than mediocrity.

They would be upside plays. If it's a choice between another Lyles/Gibson type and an upside play, I'd prefer the upside play.

I trust Elias to find adequate replacements. He's pretty smart tbh.

I would be fine with Clevinger as the OD #3 if we also added a tantalizing arm like Cabrera to our long-term picture. Along with Kimbrel, that would be a very satisfactory offseason. Of course, cutting out all of the extra steps and just signing Sonny Gray to slot right in as our clear #1 would have been the finest outcome of all, but it's clearly not reasonable to expect Orioles ownership to invest meaningfully in a team that just won 101 games with a bottom 3 payroll and only really lacks a clear rotation anchor.

Thought about that too, if he has options remaining, I would be cool with starting him in Norfolk while the braintrust tries to fix him up. We'd still kind of need another pitcher to round out the OD MLB rotation in that case, so maybe you also trade for Bieber's final arb year or sign Stroman or Clevinger in that scenario.

Not a top org pitching prospect or anything, no, just a young arm or two that has some upside that they like. Hays and Ortiz would be doing the heavy lifting value-wise in my proposal. I'm not ready to give up on Mountcastle just yet, mostly because his ridiculous Statcast numbers have to translate sooner or later, right? I also think Santander is more integral to our 2024 success than Hays is. I think Cowser can replicate most of Hays' offense, but if Kjerstad doesn't hit the ground running, Santander's reliable 30ish HR power may be sorely missed. I would trade any of the 3 under the right circumstances though.

Excellent, that means the pricetag for short term FA bats like Turner, JDM, and Pham just went up, which in turn should mean that the trade value of Santander, Mountcastle, and Hays (and maybe even O'Hearn) just went up as well.

I dunno, man- he's put up a 6.6 H/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 197.2 career IP, and he's still got 5 years of control, AND he's still just 25 years old. Like, yeah, I know the walks are problematic and he needs some finishing work, but I think I would be cool with giving up Hays' arb 2 and 3 years, Joey Ortiz, and maybe like Juan Nunez to add that kind of arm to our organization.