25 Nuggets

Aparicio was a fantastic fielder and a better offensive player than Belanger, and is in the Hall of Fame. Sabermetrics jive with this. Hansen during his prime was a fantastic fielder and of course a better hitter, but he had problems with his back that wore him down. His best year in 1964 he logged 7.7 WAR, which was third in the entire AL behind Brooks Robinson (8.1) and Jim Fregosi (7.9). A lot of that was his defensive component. Kubek and Groat were fine fielders but weren't in Belanger/Aparicio (Hansen for a while) territory. I do agree however that there is at least some subjectivity to defensive value. Even today with statcast tracking - although it's gotten us a lot closer to objectivity.

Ah. Derp!

Seriously? He's never gone 1-2-3?

Adam Frazier was a good signing. There, I said it.

first pitch DP... that's literally the worst thing he could've done

I don't know if any team needs a singular player back from IL than the Yankees need Aaron Judge.

Game is starting to enter funky territory. Umpires getting tired after the rain delay?

Every regular starting player is OPSing between 700 and 900 right now, correct?

Kremer gutted it out tonight, well done. Managing that kind of start gets you a lot of money over a career.

Six of the Orioles seven hits so far are from left handed hitters - two each by O'Hearn, Mullins and Frazier.

Frazier now 7 for 14 against Alcantara

Alcantara's been struggling too. Hopefully this continues!

Good point, as well as Hicks has been hitting as an Oriole, but if he cools off it would be him. His season splits are much better vs LHP.

Another point - averaging the value of an average major league starter over 18 years means you had a really good career. This is because most players have a development, peak, and decline phase. 40.4 of Belanger's 41.0 WAR came over 11 seasons, from age 24 to age 34. This is typical. Those years average out to be 3.7 WAR, which is borderline All Star territory. He did make the All Star game once in 1976, which is of course the only year in his career that he OPSed league average. Not coincidentally, these were also his heaviest usage years. All 11 of his highest PA totals came during this 11 year span.

Here's an example of some zero-WAR players from the 2022 season, using Baseball Reference: Nick Castellanos (558 PA) - 263/305/389 (96 OPS+), 13 HR, 62 RBI, 29/130 BB-K, corner OF and some DH Whit Merrifield (550 PA) - 250/298/375 (91 OPS+), 11 HR, 58 RBI, 38/85 BB-K. primarily below-average 2B Luis Garcia (377 PA) - 275/295/408 (102 OPS+), 7 HR, 45 RBI, 11/84 BB-K, bad defense at SS and okay at 2B These players could have been replaced by an average AAA call up - Terrin Vavra for example, who also provided 0.0 WAR in 2022, in a more limited role. Hopefully this provides some context into what replacement level means.

If the Orioles are following the Astros model, their next step is identifying which young players they want to extend and extending them to sizeable contracts.

I didn't think about that until you posted it - but it sure does

Great. Now this utterly stupid scenario, conjured from thin air by Kevin Brown and some random guy from Seattle, has me worried about Bautista's state of mind as a closer.

The 8 games vs Tampa, 7 vs Toronto and 6 vs Houston appear to be the most important ones left. Noticed in Boston's schedule there's 7 games there as well.

Vlad Guerrero was another one like that - he walked 56 per 162 and struck out 74 per 162 because he could make contact with anything thrown in his general direction.

Considering we do not expect the Orioles to acquire a big name starting pitcher, lengthening the bullpen for the playoffs may be the better move anyway, for what they'd have to give up. That could bring a lot of names into the equation, not just from the Mariners. But Sewald would be a really good get. The guy's been money since he came to Seattle.

I guess this would fit the "specific trades" thread but a look into their future - if they trade from pitching they definitely need pitching back. They also don't seem to have a ready replacement for Goldschmidt at 1B, unless they move Jordan Walker there because he's been atrocious defensively, but then there's a hole in the outfield. So, something like Kyle Stowers and Drew Rom. Rom is 18th in the Orioles Pipeline and floundering in AAA, but would probably be around 10th in the Cardinals Pipeline. I'm not sure what the value of Stowers is anymore but it's probably higher in Saint Louis. As far as re-signing him, it would depend on how he finishes the season, as well as how the team doctors feel about him. And the money of course. But if things go well, that would be great. He's only 27.

Having a nutty good draft three out of four years while nailing your top two picks in the fourth... well, that's how you get the top farm system in the majors. It's just that all the best picks are position players. Like, every single one of the top... twelve players from those drafts are position players. Maybe the 2023 draft changes that a bit with half the picks being right-handed pitchers, but we'll see.

Let's take Jack Flaherty as an example. He's been up and down over his career due to injuries. So far this season his weakness is walking a lot of people (4.7 BB/9) - otherwise, he has 8.6 K/9, 0.6 HR/9 and an FIP of 4.01. He's averaged 5.2 innings per start and gave up no runs his last two outings. He is somebody that would improve the rotation but not on the front end. He'd cost something like $2.5 mil for the remainder of the season and none of the Orioles top prospects. I, like many other people here, would much prefer his teammate Jordan Montgomery, and would certainly be talking to the Cardinals about their asking price. But I also do not believe Elias will place the highest bid when multiple teams are bidding (I'm reading Toronto and Philly among others are in on Monty). I'm talking about what I think will happen, and somebody in the realm of Flaherty - somebody who perhaps Elias thinks the Orioles can improve - is the more likely scenario.

I don't mean to imply they would get an "ace" with those parts - only to improve playoff pitching depth. People looking for a big name would be disappointed.