banks703

So, discount strikeouts but emphasize walks? Got it.

The White Sox were a dumpster fire the entire year last season. I bet if you go back and watch every game that Cease threw, you'll see their defense routinely not make plays that major leaguers should make, errors, a general checked-outtedness and overall bad baseball. I have a close friend who is a die-hard WS fan and his sentiment is that Cease's year was not as good (obviously) as 22 but it was nowhere near as bad as his surface numbers suggest. There's a reason why Wins are a stat of the past. Gibson earned 15 wins with the O's because they were a 101-win team that was very good during the regular and bailed him out of a lot of games that his 4.73ERA (4.13 FIP good for 31st) pitched them to. Cease's ERA was 4.58 on a terrible defensive team with his FIP at 3.72, which was good for 18th best in the majors last year. Cease's HR/9 were better than Gibson's, who had the luxury of Walltimore. Put Cease on a good defensive team and I bet his numbers more closely resemble 2022 Dylan Cease.

IP the last three years: Cease: 526.2 Gibson: 541.2 That's an average of 5 more innings pitched per season for Kyle. WAR the last three years: Cease: 12.6 Gibson: 7.5 K's the last three years: Cease: 667 Gibson: 456 I really can't reconcile this thought of yours about the two of Gibson and Cease. I don't think that Kyle Gibson is in the same neighborhood as Cease in terms of value and potential.

Posts like THIS always bring to light just how much minor league talent is in the system, which, suggests (at least to me) that something HAS TO GIVE in terms of asset management. There's virtually no room in Baltimore for more than one, maybe two of the upper league prospects. Norfolk has basically ran out of room as well. I will continue to cite the age of some of the veteran prospects (Norby, Joey, Kjerstad) and the only reconciliation that I have is that they HAVE to move some of these guys for Major League enhancements (or continue wasting their value in the minors) or they have to move guys off of the major league roster to make room and even then, there's only so many spots. In 2024: Joey enters his age 26 season. Kjerstad enters his age 25 season. Norby enters his age 24 season. I share @Tony-OHsentiment that Kjerstad is sleeper trade candidate. As unpopular as it may be, I think that Westburg is the other odd-man, regardless of whether Mayo is moved to the outfielder. To me, there's a package to the White Sox of Kjerstad and Westburg plus filler(s) to land Cease. Certainly JW could be interchangeable with Joey, the same goes for Kjerstad with Norby or Cowser (or even Beavers but they would probably want a higher rated filler) but ultimately, two of their 10 guys probably HAVE to get moved or they're going to waste away in the minors. I've advocated for Cease since before the 23 deadline. I just think he makes sense in Baltimore for this window. He's a proven guy who he misses bats and pitches innings and even if he ends up as only their third-best starter in 24, he's an upgrade to the rotation from Gibson and the combo of TWells and Flaherty. Certainly Meansy factors into this as well but a five-man rotation of Cease, Braddish, GrayRod, Means and Kremer is VERY good and definitely worth two of the top 10 guys not named Holliday, Basallo or Mayo.

My interpretation of the word easily is much different than your interpretation of it.

I guess it's true what they say: it's not what you know but who you know.

Mayo could be the wildcard. We've beaten up the SS debate (which I will never budge on Joey>Gunnar>Holliday) but if Mayo improves enough defensively to be league-average there or better, it drastically shakes up the infield alignment for the next five years. A bunch of other guys would become expendable. Offensively, an IF alignment of Gunnar at SS, Holliday at 2B and Mayo at 3B is lethal. We're talking late 2000's Yankee IF potential. Mayo looks like Troy Glaus to me. If he can handle 3B adequately, it changes a lot for the current group of guys...but I don't know if I'm ready to pencil him at third just yet. I need to see better lateral movement from, which I guess could come as he grows into his frame. Glaus wasn't exactly Brooks at third but he wasn't a butcher and his peak seasons were pretty damn excellent.

I think this is a worst-case scenario for the development of key guys at key positions. My hope for Gunnar in 24 is that he plays more than 90% of his defensive innings at one position. I'd rather he move to third and play all of those innings at third than to bounce back and forth. The same goes for Joey, JW and everyone else. I know that they love the positional flexibility/versatility and I realize its benefit but game reps mean so much to development and I think they need to figure out who is going to be where long term.

This has been beaten to death in other threads but (and to much chagrin of others) this is the correct alignment with the current 40man.

I didn't see egregiousness in this thread.

I tend to agree with this take but will suggest that if the O's are hot out of the gate and firmly positioned for a playoff spot (and of course their MI guys performing) I don't think the O's will burn Holliday's service time, especially if he's looking like a ROY in 25 is a near-lock. Now, if Mateo repeats the last five months of his 23, Urias isn't producing and any of Gunnar, JW or (hopefully) Joey are not performing and they need JH's bat for a playoff push, it's certainly possible that they do burn the rookie status. A scenario where they need Holliday's bat to get into the playoffs, to me, is suggestive that they are not good enough to compete for a World Series and thus, I'd argue against burning his clock for a one or two and a bbq 24 playoffs. I don't see a scenario where they bring him up during the dog days. He either breaks camp with the big club as the starting 2B or he's in Norfolk until rosters expand.

I don't necessarily agree with this take. I think his performance overall was impressive but what he did with the bat was pretty otherworldly for a 19 year old in his first season of professional ball. Everything that I've seen from him at the plate tells me that he is a top half of the order hitter right now. The power will come with his physical maturity but I think that he's going to lead the league in hitting at some point in his career (hopefully it's with the O's). As reluctant as I am to anoint him the SS of the future for the O's, he is very much ready to produce at the plate. I think an argument could have been made that he could have helped them against the Rangers. Would it have made a difference? Not at all but he could have been given ABs in that series and I would not have argued against it.

Not if you take off the orange-colored glasses. There are plenty of folks who projected him to be drafted as an OF and more who suggested a move to 2B. @Tony-OH has been consistently stating that there are numerous guys in the org who profile better now and in the future at SS. I genuinely don't mean to come off as a braggart here but I've strongly suggested from Day 1 (and I've seen him play in person now more than 25 times) that he doesn't look to be a strong defender at SS now or in the future. Was he taken as a SS? He sure was because the hope was that he could stick there and he very well could progress enough defensively to play a passable SS but he is never going to be the best defensive option there, especially not in an org that already has the SS assets that the O's have for the next 6+ years.

@Tony-OH the O's have spoiled us with these prolific Middle Infield Prospects. Even today I mix-up Holliday and Henderson... assuming that you're falling victim to this as well here and you mean Holliday and not Henderson. Not to pick nit .. just to clarify for the rest of the class.

Defensively or his entire profile with hitting and baserunning included? Can you post a link to the article or perhaps post some quotes? I am obviously not BA but there is nothing about his defensive profile that tells me that he can play plus D at SS and it isn't only about the lack of arm strength for me. I have been posting for quite a while that he looks better suited for 2B, where I could see him as a more premier defender there but I would love to know the logic behind their assessment of him. I think a best-case scenario for him at SS would be league-average. The only guy currently in the system that has the chops to push Gunnar off of SS is Joey, which frankly, I don't see happening. While Joey is the best defensive SS in the org for me, Gunnar narrowed the gap between the two of them with his play in 23 (while bouncing back and forth between SS and 3B, which is all the more impressive). Gunnar is a bona fide superstar and even even though I am (and have been) a big fan of Joey and think that he is going to have a five or six year run with someone that closely resembles Jack Wilson's great years with the Pirates, I think that Gunnar's overall game as a SS is too much for Joey or any of the other guys to overcome. I hope that I'm wrong though because I do think that an infield alignment of JW at 2B, Joey at SS and Gunnar at 3B gives them the strongest alignment. I just don't think that they are serious enough about Joey to give him a real shot to man SS full-time. I could be wrong. I hope that I'm wrong but I don't think it's going to happen for Joey in Baltimore and it's my feeling that using him in a utility role is a waste of his glove at SS.

I think some folks get tunnel-vision on the prospect ranking itself and can somewhat disregard the player himself and the state of the franchise. Will JH mature and get better? Of course. He's the top prospect in baseball for a reason and he got better defensively throughout his first year of pro ball. I just don't think that his defensive tools project a premier defender at SS, which is something the organization has very clearly demonstrated a priority. I do not see a scenario where if all of the current guys on the ML are still on the roster at the time of JH's promotion (which very well could be OD 24 for all I know), that he pushes Gunnar, Joey and Jorge off of SS. The path for him to be promoted and play in Baltimore in 24 is at 2B, where even JW is currently a better defender. I genuinely see his hit tool as being currently better than 3/4 of the position players on the ML roster. A top of the order of JH, Adley and Gunnar is absolutely disgusting to think about for the next 5+ years... but I think we are more likely to have to wait a little bit longer to see it.

This is essentially the point that I’ve argued all year. The most important part of his development this off-season is that he needs to physically mature quite a bit, which I think he will based on how his dad grew physically from 19.5 to 20.5 years old. I think they also need to see a drastic improvement from him defensively to leapfrog the older (albeit lower floor/ceiling) guys that are “ahead” right now. He’s going to hit from day 1 but unless all of Gunnar, Joey and Jorge fall off a cliff defensively, Holliday isn’t going to see time at SS at the ML level this upcoming season. I suspect that he will be given an opportunity in ST to earn a spot but it won’t be at SS. As I’ve stated over and over I don’t think he has the arm, the footwork, the range or timing that you’d want in a ML SS. I’m convinced he ends up at 2B but I think it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he gets moved to the OF at some point. All of this to say that I agree with MB and your take on the kid. If they didn’t have both Jorge and Ramon on the 26 man, I think they conceivably could stash him at DH (and my previous thought was that Jorge would be moved to open an infield roster spot) but they’re going to want him to get defensive innings. Unless they’re absolutely pathetic offensively and are desperate for his bat or they move another infielder on the 26-man, I think it’s more likely that he ends up starting 24 in Norfolk.

That's fair but damn, that's more than 1/5th of a century in the past. Impressive to me.

@Tony-OH Methinks there is something abnormal about your brain. That you're able to remember this 21+ years later is impressive. I can barely remember what I ate for dinner last night and Mike Elias is more than two years older than me! I was a senior in Hikes School when you wrote this. Good on you for remembering it.

The two guys outside of the top 5 who I would be most disappointed to see dealt would be Joey and Seth Johnson. That said, I would rather deal Joey if he is again going to be stashed in Norfolk in 24 as he is aging-out of prospect status at this point.

Phew.. I sure am glad SG isn't spending my money. Buying out arb years with a nine figure offer for a second baseman who has never played a major league game is a too rich for my blood.

A much much better defensive version of Pierre is my comp for EBJ. To me, if he is only Juan Pierre, he’s still a very good and valuable player but I will disappointed if that is EBJ’d ceiling.

Ehhh... I'd argue that they already have the best catching duo in baseball. Obviously 80% of that is Adley but JM was really good for them this year and Basallo is probably ready to contribute by 25 when they'll surely lose JM's expiring contract. Heim would have been nice to keep if they could have stashed him (they could have but they moved him to address a need during a playoff run) but I don't fault them for moving him at the time or for not having a foresight of six or seven years. I don't think anyone predicted that he would become the player that he is today. The O's have had lots of these guys, from Jose Bautista, Jason Worth, Justin Turner, Yaz, Walker, etc. etc. but so do other teams. Look at the Cards with Garcia and Arozarena or the Rays and their abundance of talent that they have traded away over the last ten years. Every team has parted with guys who are fringe prospects that become solid to great players with other teams. It's just part of the game. The O's current model needs for them to hit on some of the players that are discarded by other teams, which I think they've done a good job of during Elias tenure.

His 3.7 WAR (good for 18th among pitchers, just behind Bradish and just above Burnes) says hello. Acquiring Cease would upgrade the rotation more than either of the three other deals. And no, I’m not a big fan of Cease but he would instantly become at least the O’s second best pitcher.