banks703

I think some folks get tunnel-vision on the prospect ranking itself and can somewhat disregard the player himself and the state of the franchise. Will JH mature and get better? Of course. He's the top prospect in baseball for a reason and he got better defensively throughout his first year of pro ball. I just don't think that his defensive tools project a premier defender at SS, which is something the organization has very clearly demonstrated a priority. I do not see a scenario where if all of the current guys on the ML are still on the roster at the time of JH's promotion (which very well could be OD 24 for all I know), that he pushes Gunnar, Joey and Jorge off of SS. The path for him to be promoted and play in Baltimore in 24 is at 2B, where even JW is currently a better defender. I genuinely see his hit tool as being currently better than 3/4 of the position players on the ML roster. A top of the order of JH, Adley and Gunnar is absolutely disgusting to think about for the next 5+ years... but I think we are more likely to have to wait a little bit longer to see it.

This is essentially the point that I’ve argued all year. The most important part of his development this off-season is that he needs to physically mature quite a bit, which I think he will based on how his dad grew physically from 19.5 to 20.5 years old. I think they also need to see a drastic improvement from him defensively to leapfrog the older (albeit lower floor/ceiling) guys that are “ahead” right now. He’s going to hit from day 1 but unless all of Gunnar, Joey and Jorge fall off a cliff defensively, Holliday isn’t going to see time at SS at the ML level this upcoming season. I suspect that he will be given an opportunity in ST to earn a spot but it won’t be at SS. As I’ve stated over and over I don’t think he has the arm, the footwork, the range or timing that you’d want in a ML SS. I’m convinced he ends up at 2B but I think it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he gets moved to the OF at some point. All of this to say that I agree with MB and your take on the kid. If they didn’t have both Jorge and Ramon on the 26 man, I think they conceivably could stash him at DH (and my previous thought was that Jorge would be moved to open an infield roster spot) but they’re going to want him to get defensive innings. Unless they’re absolutely pathetic offensively and are desperate for his bat or they move another infielder on the 26-man, I think it’s more likely that he ends up starting 24 in Norfolk.

That's fair but damn, that's more than 1/5th of a century in the past. Impressive to me.

@Tony-OH Methinks there is something abnormal about your brain. That you're able to remember this 21+ years later is impressive. I can barely remember what I ate for dinner last night and Mike Elias is more than two years older than me! I was a senior in Hikes School when you wrote this. Good on you for remembering it.

The two guys outside of the top 5 who I would be most disappointed to see dealt would be Joey and Seth Johnson. That said, I would rather deal Joey if he is again going to be stashed in Norfolk in 24 as he is aging-out of prospect status at this point.

Phew.. I sure am glad SG isn't spending my money. Buying out arb years with a nine figure offer for a second baseman who has never played a major league game is a too rich for my blood.

A much much better defensive version of Pierre is my comp for EBJ. To me, if he is only Juan Pierre, he’s still a very good and valuable player but I will disappointed if that is EBJ’d ceiling.

Ehhh... I'd argue that they already have the best catching duo in baseball. Obviously 80% of that is Adley but JM was really good for them this year and Basallo is probably ready to contribute by 25 when they'll surely lose JM's expiring contract. Heim would have been nice to keep if they could have stashed him (they could have but they moved him to address a need during a playoff run) but I don't fault them for moving him at the time or for not having a foresight of six or seven years. I don't think anyone predicted that he would become the player that he is today. The O's have had lots of these guys, from Jose Bautista, Jason Worth, Justin Turner, Yaz, Walker, etc. etc. but so do other teams. Look at the Cards with Garcia and Arozarena or the Rays and their abundance of talent that they have traded away over the last ten years. Every team has parted with guys who are fringe prospects that become solid to great players with other teams. It's just part of the game. The O's current model needs for them to hit on some of the players that are discarded by other teams, which I think they've done a good job of during Elias tenure.

His 3.7 WAR (good for 18th among pitchers, just behind Bradish and just above Burnes) says hello. Acquiring Cease would upgrade the rotation more than either of the three other deals. And no, I’m not a big fan of Cease but he would instantly become at least the O’s second best pitcher.

They already traded away one Urias. I have the chances at 0 that they’d want Ramon. Stowers has literally zero trade value. Mullins, Ortiz and Norby aren’t getting Burnes and Devin Williams and I don’t love the idea of moving Ced without a viable replacement. As big of an advocate that I am for Cowser, I’d have to know that his challenges with the third deck in ML stadiums is behind him and I don’t see how we could know that until next year.

They won’t be but I would be all over Sonny Gray.

The definition of the best in this context really doesn't apply. The goal for every team, every year since the inception of the World Series, is to win the World Series. Will I think that the DBacks are the best team in baseball if they win it? No but wgaf? I would take sneaking into the playoffs every year if it means that the O's win a World Series during this window they have with the current core guys.

March Madness is structured this way so I don't quite agree with invalidating the winner of the World Series this year simply because they didn't win the most games in the regular season. The MLB playoffs have become a tournament. To me, it's better now than with only four teams or only six teams. Yes, it does reward the teams that are hot at the right time. So be it. The O's were not set up for playoff baseball. That's our reality. What I think this year's playoffs have done is it's showing that contending teams (even those that were struggling/fringe contenders like the Twins and the DBacks, who at the time who had lost 8 of 10 from 7/20 to 7/30) need to improve by the deadline but have to improve their club through the year. Houston did it at the deadline. The Rangers did it at the deadline then got healthy. The Phils improved leading up to the deadline and got healthier. The DBacks improved at the deadline with sneaky good moves like acquiring Pham and Jace Peterson, got healthier and promoted guys. The Rays added but then were stung by big losses to Franco and McCLanahan, Lowe in the WC round, among others. The O's really didn't add to their team outside of internal guys. I was excited for them to bring in Flaherty but he didn't work out for them. I hope that they bring back Fuji to get a full off-season and Spring Training with him in hopes that they can fix him similarly to how they fixed Cano and Felix but Fuji didn't do a lot for them either. Whether they sat on their hands, didn't want to give up the prospects/players to acquire difference makers, or they were outbid..whatever the case is, they did not improve the club enough to make a post-season run. This has bee my complaint with Elias and Co. I think that they are slooowwww to make moves. Sure, we can look to the regular season success and make the argument that they were winning enough to not have to make a big move but if we were being honest with ourselves, they do not look like legitimate contenders. In a perfect world the Wildcard series would be a one game win or go home and that one game should be played two days after game 162, simply for travel reasons. The Wildcard winners should have to fight for the playoff lives, that's what the Wildcard is designed to be in every sport. The Division Series should then be played two days after the Wildcard game and there should be re-seeding. Make those changes and I think the playoff structure gets even better. I'm not going to take anything away from the teams that are still playing. They're all good teams who have earned the right to be in their League Championship games. The O's needed to do more to be setup for the playoffs. No, I don't put winning 100 games and the East above a World Series or even an AL Championship. That's silly. The playoffs are not a crapshoot. They're just a tournament now that the O's were not designed for this year. Hopefully the ass-whipping the Rangers gave them keeps Mike Elias up all night, every night for the next 300ish days. If he/they show more action in improving the club in 24 DURING the season (regardless of whether or not they are leading the ALE) then I think them getting boat-raced out of the 23 playoffs was worth the embarrassment but I'm certainly not going to make excuses for their exit, diminish the eventual World Series winner or minimalize what the remaining four teams have earned.

I think that he breaks camp with the big club as the starting 2B in 24. I see him, at only 20 years old next year, putting together a Steven Kwan type of rookie season at the plate but with more pop, which will be plenty good enough to put him in the conversation for ROY. Make no mistake, the O's model does in fact value the extra draft pick so if they don't think that he is ready to contribute from Day 1 Next Year, we won't see him in Baltimore (barring something catastrophic to other guys) until September when rosters expand to save his ROY campaign for 25. Having to consider defense, I'm not convinced that he's the better overall prospect between he and Caminero, who I think will be the odds-on favorite for ROY in 24 but Jackson Holliday is going to grow more in the next five, six months and could come to camp 15 lbs more muscular and those doubles could become homeruns as soon as this upcoming season. He is the best pure hitter in the O's system and the best pure hitting prospect in all of baseball and as good as I've ever seen in-person, which includes Soto, Manny, Harper, etc. etc. He's not going to have the pop of those guys but he's going to walk/get on base like Soto/Kwan, be an absolute doubles machine in OPACY and hit 15 - 20 homers and might even have enough to post a 20-20 season in his rookie year. He's that good at the plate and for a team that struggled offensively for the last few weeks of the season, then went onto be embarrassed in the post-season, the 24 O's need Holliday's bat. It will be a surprise to me if he isn't leading off against the Angels on March 28, 2024.

When you’re scared to throw strikes or unable to do so, this is what a good hitting team does to you. And people shit their pants when I post that they need to upgrade their rotation, specifically Kremer and Gibson.

Lol

So only Ant adjusted. Awesome.

Replace her with Wendy Rhodes!

I should have clarified better - the org as a whole. I don't think that the product on the field is satisfied with just getting to the post-season.

I have the benefit of hindsight of course but if I'm answering honestly, I don't know that I would have done anything different than what Hyde did with him yesterday... but Hyde's job is to manage the players and the game. I expect him to know better than me. When he walked Seager for the second time, it looked to me like he was legitimately rattled and I might have pulled him then but I certainly would have got him after Garver reached on that play that GrayRod lolipopped the throw to Mountcastle at first. That looked like the undoing and that he wasn't going to recover from it. At least it looked that way to me. I posted in the game thread for Hyde to get him after both of those ABs (to Seager and Garver). Again, I am not suggesting that I know better than Brandon but it's his job to know the players better than I do and if I could see on TV that GrayRod didn't have command of his pitches and he was throwing basically only the 4-seamer, then I'd have to think that the coaches knew and Adley knew. In my opinion, they should have had guys ready to piggyback both of the first two games, whether that be Kremer and Gibson or whatever/whoever the case.. one of each of those two guys should have been prepared as if it was their day to start, to jump into a game if they were needed to pitch. Saving either of them (or more irresponsibly both of them) is inexcusable in my eyes. Yesterday was a must-win game for them after Friday night's loss. You can't go to Texas down 2 games to none in a five-game series. You can't have guys occupy roster spots in the post-season and not use them. Texas made it a bullpen game yesterday. Wouldn't it have made sense to have Gibson or Kremer ready to bail out GrayRod in a worst-case scenario rather than throwing seven guys for 7 1/3 innings? To me, it looks like getting to the post-season was enough for them. Maybe they're happy with that and consider it to be a successful season. I certainly do. But I don't think that Texas is the better team. This series looks like a wasted opportunity, especially when nothing for next year or beyond is guaranteed. They will have to do A LOT to win 101 games next year. I wouldn't count on that happening.

They made him throw strikes yesterday, which was a challenge for him with the lack of command. That’s all. I have every confidence in him being the star that they (and we) believe him to be headed towards. I posted that I thought Texas was a better matchup for Means than GrayRod yesterday. Perhaps if Meansy doesn’t experience the elbow soreness he gets the ball yesterday instead. I guess we will never truly know because you know that management won’t come out and say it if it’s true. The kid threw a clunker. It was evident from the first batter that he didn’t have his command yesterday. I blame Hyde for leaving him in when everyone in the stadium knew that he was struggling to find the strike zone and didn’t seem to completely trust his stuff.

I legitimately LOL’d at this

Almost literally every single decision that Hyde has made has bit him in the ass.

Of biblical proportions

Cole Bradford and the Texas pen making the O’s look like little leaguers