TommyPickles
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Posts posted by TommyPickles
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13 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:
Part time players should have at least one plus tool. What is his?
His defense. By Fielding Bible's metric, been our best defensive player besides Adley over the past two seasons.
His versatility. He rated as an above average defender at 3B, 2B, and 1B.
His OBP and ability to hit righties. .750 OPS against righties in his career. Not bad for glove-y utility infielder.
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It's a hard time to be a Urias defender, but I'd much rather see them move on from Kemp first.
Clearly, it has been a rough start for Ramon, but he was hitting great in spring training.
He had the second highest OBP on the team last season, out of players who are still here. Only Adley's OBP was higher.
Since the start of 2022, he has the second highest DRS on the team, behind only Adley.
Give my boy a couple weeks. He makes a ton of sense as a part time player on this 2024 team.
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I thought this was interesting. Through five games, here are the Orioles' ranks compared to the rest of MLB:
Team OPS: .717 (15th in MLB)
Rotation ERA: 3.81 (12th in MLB)
Bullpen ERA: 2.70 (11th in MLB)
Relatively speaking, our bullpen has been the best part of our team so far this season.
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Walkoffs are way more memorable and special.
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Worth -12 defensive runs saved last season.
Below average at left field.
Horrible at 2B. One of the worst in MLB.
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I think the Os should keep him for all of 2024. You need that 30-homer type veteran in the postseason. Santander has played on some big stages and will be an asset.
After this year? He probably walks and signs a decent 3 year deal somewhere.
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McKenna making the team and then dropping another pop fly in the opening series would lead to some all time hilarious Orioles Hangout reactions...
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28 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:
You need bench players on the team that are versatile, so Mateo fits the bill. Yes, there is better talent in the organization, but you do need players that will only get 250-300 at bats here and there, and won't burden you defensively when he's playing. That's the reason. There are way too many guys that need everyday at bats.....Mateo isn't one of them, because getting those doesn't make him any better of a hitter. But he does fill an important role. And, he's more versatile than McKenna or Urias.
This debate has been beaten to death, but I think Urias is more valuable than Mateo.
Over a very similar number of ABs:
A career .738 OPS/7.3 rWAR vs a career .633 OPS/4.5 rWAR
Urias compliments Westburg well, since they can both play 2B or 3B and they have reverse splits from one another. Urias also graded as a plus defender last season at 1B.
According to Fielding Bible, Urias has been worth 18 DRS over the past two years. Mateo has been worth 16 DRS over that time.
I'd like to see the O's (eventually this year) move on from Mateo. Then make Urias the versatile veteran bench guy who makes some starts against righties. Urias has also shown he can hit well enough playing part time, whereas Mateo hasn't.
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I think they'll move on from Mateo mid-season.
I could see Holliday getting the bulk of the starts at 2B
Gunnar getting the starts at SS
Urias and Westburg more or less platooning at 3B. With Westburg getting some action against RHP to help his development.
Urias OPS against RHP: .758
Westburg OPS against RHP: .676
Westburg OPS against LHP: .786
Urias OPS against LHP: .686
I know a lot of people are eager to move on from Urias, but a gold glove third baseman who puts up a .758 OPS from the strong side of a platoon is a hell of a piece to have on your bench. His power numbers have looked promising this spring, too.
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I think Cole Irvin could be a #5 starter on a World Series team.
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11 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:
Source?
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/giants-to-sign-blake-snell.html
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I think O'Hearn is definitely a lock. I also read that article about how he's speaking up more in team meetings and emerging as a veteran leader. But it's worth saying again:
Santander looked good at first last season.
He only played 72 innings at the position, but he actually had a higher DRS at the position than O'Hearn. (So did Urias, btw).
I saw a couple of those games in person sitting behind first base. Watching him in warm ups between innings, he looked really comfortable. Picking balls out of the dirt with ease.
I don't think this is going to happen, but there is definitely an alternative universe where the O's extend Santander to a team-friendly three year deal and he transitions to first base.
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I feel perfectly comfortable with Irvin as the fifth starter to start the year. He's really not bad.
I kind of hope Teheran makes the bullpen. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit for what he did when he was younger, but he seems like a guy who the O's could get value from. He's experienced. He walks no one.
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"The Orioles got 2,006 plate appearances (33% of the team’s plate appearances) and 403.2 innings (28% of the team’s innings) in 2023 from Rule 5 picks, waiver claims and players whose contracts they purchased from other teams.
That’s an absurdly large percentage for a 100-win team. Looking at the 21 100-win teams from 2014-2023, no other team came close to getting that many plate appearances from freely available talent. While the Orioles had 2,006 plate appearances from players in those categories, the other 20 teams combined to have 2,941 plate appearances. The Orioles got 7.8 bWAR from those players. The other 20 teams had 8.7 bWAR combined. Eight teams didn’t get a single plate appearance from a waiver claim, Rule 5 pick or contract purchase."
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Giving up three or four weeks of a 20-year-old splitting time in a crowded infield mix in exchange for a shot at an extra year of control of a potential All-Star-type player?
Kind of a no-brainer for the ownership. I don't see Holliday making the OD roster.
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I don't think it is overrated, but I think some guys do better than others when it comes to inconsistent playtime.
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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:
We might get that.
We might not.
If Holliday puts up a 5 Win season while the pitching falls apart they ain't cursing to a division title.
That's fair. We don't know. But I think if Holliday puts up a 4-5 WAR season, it will significantly increase our odds. The would be a dream scenario for the 2024 season in a vacuum.
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I'm not a great believer in Mountcastle (or O'Hearn) and I'd love to see Mayo become our full time 1B by 2025.
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People are asking what do we get if he starts the year in AAA but comes up and wins ROY anyway?
We get the ROY. We get a team that cruises to a second consecutive division title and is probably a favorite to make it to the World Series when the playoffs begin.
Holliday coming up and putting up a 4-5 WAR season as a 20-year old would be great and he'd deserve the full year of service time.
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I 100% expect Holliday to begin the year in AAA. I think the decision will be driven by the extra year of service time, even though you can't say this part outloud. And, at this point, I'm fine with it. Not thrilled, but fine with it.
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Would you do 3 years, $40 million?
I understand the arguments against it, but yes or no to that price? He can play first base. He's 29. He's averaged 30.5 HR a year over the past two seasons.
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I like the addition of Teheran. He was decent last season with the Brewers, he's still just 33, and his 1.130 WHIP in 2023 was below his career average. Nice experience and talent to have in your minors.
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I like our guys
Corbin Burnes 2024
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Yea they're a fun team. Lots of speed and good mix of vets and promising young guys.