TommyPickles
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Posts posted by TommyPickles
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Baseball Reference is better than Fangraphs.
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I think Westburg.
And I could see a rotating cast of Westburg, Urias, and Ortiz splitting 2B/3B. Urias hits righties better, Ortiz hits lefties better, etc.
I’m cool with that.
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I feel like his budget is also unknown to us fans.
Can he go out and sign a Marcus Stroman to a multi year deal? Or is that not on the table. We've heard rumors that the O's were "in" on these guys who have gotten three year deals, but we still haven't seen a multi year deal in the Elias era.
Stroman (3.95 ERA in 2023) and Cease (4.58 ERA in 2023) are projected to have nearly identical ERAs in 2024 (Baseball Reference). I'm curious if he has the flexibility to pivot to a free agent option? Could he save the prospects for a mid-season acquisition? Or is he really in a trade-or-bust scenario if he wants to upgrade the rotation this offseason?
(I'd prefer Cease, just an example)
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I think 4th is fair.
I also think the Yankees are going to be better than the Rays this year.
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7 hours ago, Frobby said:
From an MLBTR chat today;
Up in the air
Who says no? Westburg, Stowers, Pham, and Wagner for Cease or
Mark P
That's a pretty good offer, even if the White Sox are reportedly/seemingly looking to add pitching. They'd probably want a higher-tier pitching prospect than Pham.
I'd pull the trigger.
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10 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:
That's a pretty small sample size.
That's fair. Just something to keep an eye on, not a dealbreaker for Westburg or anything.
I just looked up the Marlins stadium dimensions. I think you could make a case that he'd have a higher OPS there, though.
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I'd be down to trade Westburg.
I remember before he made his MLB debut reading some analysis that he was likely to be eventually traded because his bat would play so poorly at Camden Yards. He was a righty who pulled the ball a lot.
I just checked his splits for his first 208 ABs in the bigs:
Home: .662 OPS
Away: .768 OPS
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I'd rather get Ryu than Manaea, but that was a good read.
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12 hours ago, wildcard said:
I am not against adding more pitching but the pitching is better that what they had last year already.
Ehh... I hope you're right, but it's not hard to imagine the O's pitching being worse if they make no additions.
We've lost Felix, who was incredible. Hard to imagine the back end of the bullpen candidates replacing those numbers.
I love Bradish and Grayson, but each could regress a bit. Baseball Reference projects Bradish to go from a 2.83 ERA in 2023 to a 3.75 ERA in 2024. They project Grayson to have a 4.31 ERA in 2024.
Means is my favorite player on the team, but a healthy season is not guaranteed.
I think we need to add more pitching.
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So is Perez the third string catcher?
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9 minutes ago, Say O! said:
Which teams are still in SP market? Especially with the recent activity (CIN signing Montas, RedSox signing Giolito, Dodgers likely set). Maybe Cubs and SFG…who else? I guess always NY teams, but seems like other GMs moved early either getting their guy or pivoting to planB.
Getting some vibes that the musical chairs could leave some options available for Os among the FAs (personally I like a one year/opt out flier on Paxton). And every day it seems like less leverage out there for trade partners (Cease, Luzardo). Maybe patience will pay off for Elias.
I think there's easily ten teams still looking for starting pitching.
BAL, NYY, NYM, LAA, SFG, BOS, DET, CHC, SDP, TOR just off the top of my head.
The Dodgers are reportedly checking in with Imanaga, so they might not be done either.
To the other point, I'd be happy to see Means extended. I think that could be a real thrifty, good move longterm.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/free-agent-profile-marcus-stroman.html
Good write-up on Stroman and the state of the mid-rotation market.
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I feel like the Rays could fall off a cliff in 2024 and finish 4th or 5th in the AL East.
Wander Franco (5.5 WAR in 2023) is gone.
Tyler Glasnow (3.53 ERA in 2023) is gone.
Shane McClanahan to miss all of 2024 with surgery.
That's like 10-12 WAR gone.
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Corbin Burnes isn't going anywhere.
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Domestic abuse and drunken violent tirades in the Yankee clubhouse aside,
Would this guy even make our rotation better? Not deeper, but better?
I'd rather watch Tyler Wells or DL Hall in that fifth spot than this clown.
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9/17 playoff clincher was epic. I was there.
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5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
I would add him but I wouldn’t give up more for him than I would for Cease.
Reading through this board, I often find myself agreeing with @Sports Guy. One of my favorite posters.
That said, I gotta disagree with you here.
I would give up a good bit more for Valdez than Cease, even with the higher arbitration price tag.
Career ERA:
Valdez- 3.40
Cease- 3.83
Career FIP:
Valdez- 3.61
Cease- 3.86
2023 ERA:
Valdez- 3.45
Cease- 4.58
2023 IP:
Valdez- 198.0
Cease- 177.0
Postseason IP:
Valdez- 80.2
Cease- 2.2
Maybe I'm giving too much credit to postseason experience and I just have PTSD from watching the Astros in October for so many years...
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I wonder how good the Royals will be this year? They've added a lot of major league guys this offseason.
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Seems like a lot of SP have already signed for mid-December...
Nola, Ohtani, Gray, Wacha, Maeda, Lugo, Flaherty, EdRod, Lynn, Gibson, Mahle
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I'm team Ryu.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
The average peak for a player is at 26-28. Obviously there are plenty of exceptions. But, if you are signing Santander, the odds of a decline from 3.0 are higher than that he’ll bump up from there.
Shout out to Melvin Mora who was worth
3.9 WAR in his twenties
and
24.4 WAR in his thirties
(Obviously, you're right, but that's my favorite Oriole exception)
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Ryu kind of reminds me of an older John Means. And really, the kind of career I hope Means has (over 20 WAR).
Lefty, doesn't throw hard, throws his change up a lot, doesn't walk a lot of guys.
They have very similar career BB% and K%.
Means: 20.6% K, 5.0% BB
Ryu: 21.6% K, 5.4% BB
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I agree with your premise, and I want to see Hall get a shot at the rotation too, but I think they need to bring in at least one more starting pitcher. I just said in a different thread, I'd be cool with someone like Hyun Jin Ryu. He's probably the best pitcher that could be had on a one-year deal.
Ryu finished top 3 in the Cy Young vote in 2019 and 2020. He had a 3.46 ERA last year over 11 starts. I think there's a pretty good chance he would improve the rotation overall. I also think if your rotation to start the year is:
1. Bradish
2. Grayson
3. Means
4. Ryu
5. Kremer
then there's a pretty good chance someone is getting injured. I'd rather see Hall as the next man up than Irvin. I could even see starting Hall in AAA as Norfolk's ace. Opens up a spot in the bullpen and gives you a sixth starter that's locked and loaded as soon as you need him. If the need never arises, and everyone is healthy and doing great, then they could just bring him up to the pen mid-season for the playoff push.
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7 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:
Yeah, and I think the article was largely an excuse to write a clickable Ohtani/Betts/Freeman Top 10 list.
Oh most definitely.
I read MLB.com articles pretty often and they lean hard on highlighting the big-name stars over any real statistical analysis.
Who begins the season as our "regular" 2B?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Yes.