TommyPickles
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I also feel like the article was focusing on big hitters. Not making a holistic judgment of the three best players on each team.
2023:
Santander: .797 OPS, 28 HR
Mullins: .721 OPS, 15 HR
2022:
Santander: .773 OPS, 33 HR
Mullins: .721 OPS, 16 HR
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This is why we need to hang on to Santander in 2024. He's too important to our offense.
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The Mets do seem to love former Orioles...
They've currently got:
DJ Stewart
Cole Sulser
Jorge Lopez
Jose Iglesias
Rylan Bannon
Wayne Kirby
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I don't see Mateo on the opening day lineup. Urias makes way more sense to keep, in my opinion. He has the better bat, he's a more versatile fielder, and he accumulates more WAR.
Urias hits righties better than lefties.
Ortiz hits lefties better than righties.
I think an infield of: Gunnar, Westburg, Urias, Ortiz, Mountcastle, and O'Hearn will start the year. Then you have Mayo and Holiday trying to push their way into the picture by midseason.
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16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
I'd try to sell the Brewers on a prospect other than Hall since he fills a need for us. Could even be a guy ranked higher on Trade Simulator like Westburg or Cowser. Just doesn't make sense to trade pitching to get pitching.
I agree, but it sounds like the Brewers would be looking for a younger MLB-ready arm with more years of control as part of the return.
I think I'd take the deal, but it's a close call. I'm not a huge Mountcastle fan, but I like Hall a lot. However, if the O's got Burnes, I think they'd be the clear favorites to repeat as AL East champs, even if the Yankees get Yamamoto.
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Jim Riley from Ballcap Sports proposed this trade between the Brewers and the O's:
Orioles get:
Corbin Burnes
Brewers get:
DL Hall and Ryan Mountcastle
It's an even match on the Baseball Trade Values website and the Brewers need a corner infielder and want to compete this year even if they trade Burnes.
Have Santander dust off that first base glove and open up some starts in the outfield for Cowser and Kjerstad?
What say you? Yay or nay?
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The whole "how would sports stars of the past hold up in today's game" arguments that sports fans have always go in the same circles.
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White Sox and Mets reportedly are the finalists for Fredde.
-MLBTradeRumors
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I would do Cowser and Norby for Cease.
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Looking through these projected OPS and projected WAR posts, got me thinking. Who do you think will outperform expectations the most next year? Why?
I'll say: John Means.
Fangraphs predicts him to pitch 85 innings to a 4.24 ERA, good for 1.1 WAR.
I know he's an injury risk, but watching him pitch last year (and throughout his whole career) I sense he may do much better than that. I don't see him going 200 innings or anything, but it wouldn't shock me at all for him to put up something like this:
28 GS, 158.2 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.0 WAR or so.
Who you got?
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I think one takeaway from these numbers is that it is probably naive to expect all of these prospects to immediately outperform their veteran counterparts at the major league level. You need a mix of rookies and vets.
For example, here's their projected OPS when you average all three:
Infield:
Urias- .715 vs. Ortiz- .699
Mountcastle- .774 vs. Mayo- .723
Outfield:
Santander- .783 vs. Cowser- .707
Hays- .751 vs. Kjerstad- .743
Don't freakout when guys like Urias and Hays are getting starts in the early part of 2024, or when guys like Mayo or Norby are starting the year in AAA.
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Chapman seems like a scumbag. Fired his gun off eight times inside a house party after an altercation with his girlfriend. One bullet flew through a neighbor's window. Then he punched out a car window. She accused him of also choking her during the incident (he said he just poked her and she fell over). Was suspended for 30 days under MLB's Domestic Violence rules.
I don't want him or Trevor Bauer on the team, personally.
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3 years, $75 million.
The first guy to get less than MLBTradeRumors predicted this year.
This is a deal I would have liked to see the O's make, but oh well.
I'd like to see them target Shoto Imanaga now.
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I don't have any data on this, but it seems like the Cardinals love older players.
In 2022, for example, they had Wainwright, Pujols, and Yadi all in their 40's. Along with a 35-year-old first baseman in Goldy.
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Man. Tough call, because I'm someone who believes the Os should keep Santander for 2024. I'd even be down with him playing a lot more first base. The playoffs showed us the importance of veteran sluggers...
That said, I think I'd bite my lip and say yes.
Bradish, Grayson, Means, Bieber, Kremer is a legit rotation.
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I think Grayson is more likely to throw a no-hitter.
I think Bradish will have a lower ERA.
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Adley, Gunnar, Holiday, Grayson, Bradish
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I think Westburg will have about a .745 OPS, up from .715 in 2023.
I think he'll lose more than a couple of home runs to Lord Walltimore.
But I hope I'm being too conservative and it is more like the .775-.780 you guys are predicting!
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From MLBTradeRumors:
Bummer was tagged for nearly seven earned runs per nine over 58 1/3 innings. Among pitchers with 50+ frames, only 12 had a higher ERA than his 6.79 mark. While that’ll make this a head-scratching move for many Atlanta fans, it’s clear the front office is placing a lot more stock in Bummer’s promising underlying indicators.
Bummer struck out an above-average 29.2% of batters faced this year. He has fanned just under 27% of opponents over the course of his career. He averaged 94.5 MPH on his sinker (a solid mark for a left-hander) and missed bats against hitters of either handedness. While he’s no longer posting ground-ball numbers reminiscent of peak Zach Britton, he kept the ball on the ground at a lofty 58.2% clip. That’s the 10th-highest rate among relievers who logged at least 50 innings.
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The nine voters who don't think Gunnar Henderson was a top 10 player in the AL last year are out of their minds.
Gunnar should be a little higher up.
Adley and Julio Rodriguez could each be a little lower. I think they're both benefiting a bit from the narrative that they turned their respective teams around.
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How about:
Kremer, Ortiz, Stowers for Cease?
Throw in Mateo if it gets the White Sox over the edge. I agree with @Sports Guy that Mateo would have some value to the 2024 White Sox, even if most other teams wouldn't value him at all.
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His total DRS was 13 in 2023. He got 10 of those playing SS.
Henderson is a really good defender.
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Also, I like the Locked on Orioles podcast...
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2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Who’s playing 3B?
Good point. It could easily be Urias to start the year.
But they could also put Ortiz at SS and Henderson at 3B until Holiday shows up.
Knowing Hyde, it'll probably be more of an infield-by-committee situation.
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Cease vs everyone else
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I'm losing faith that we're going to acquire a TOR pitcher. I'm coming around to the idea of just signing someone like Hyun Jin Ryu to a one-year deal for like 12-15 million.
Ryu > Gibson > Lyles
Just keep getting slightly better vets on one-year deals. Not my first choice, but I could live with it.
1. Bradish
2. Grayson
3. Means
4. Ryu
5. Kremer
Hall, Wells, Irvin to the pen.