CHIP

Handley was the no offense with defense pick in 2019. I optimistically find his improvement from Short season to A+ to AA to AAA that he improves his stats every year against better pitching. Especially if he can maintain what he has done since returning from his IL time in Early June. Defensively, Handley has been had a few errors logged against him for a couple errant throws but otherwise he is still throwing out 40%ish of runners and the ones he doesn't he has no chance because of the pitcher. Ardoin was supposed to be equal to Handley defensively when he was drafted in 2022 but with an already advanced bat. Poor end of season in Delmarva in 2022 and up until a 1 week stretch just before the AS break wasn't hitting .180. Then the entire Aberdeen team raised their averages against Greensboro. So with Willems success and the stud in Delmarva beating on the door... Ardoin absolutely needs to keep his hot streak up to not be a let down. Between Aberdeen and Handey at AAA there isn't much but filler material. I personally don't see Urman lasting more than 2.5 years

Surprisingly (Sarcasm Intended)... Bemboom cleared waivers and accepted assignment to Norfolk. Meanwhile, Twitter is killing it with this one:

Here is an article for those that like to deep dive. CONCLUSION The overall takeaway from this study is that, in the top five rounds, generally college players are much more valuable picks than high school players and college position players are more valuable than college pitchers. In the top five rounds, college players not only have a greater chance than high school players of making the major leagues and playing in the major leagues more than three years, but also more college players sign in proportion to high school players. https://sabr.org/journal/article/the-chances-of-a-drafted-baseball-player-making-the-major-leagues-a-quantitative-study/

For the first couple years they were able to get a lot of early picks in the early rounds. The O's gave these picks a lot of money. Money plays. All of our top picks and top prospects get into games 5-6 games per week and are in the top 3-5 spots in the line-up. The OF/IF guys can play and hit every day and they use the DH spot when not in the field. The lower slot guys (draft and rankings) get the 5-9 spots and and are 2-4 games per week resulting in 1/2 of the PA's the $$$ players get. If you look at the teams without the high picks in the early rounds, they have more of a mixed bag. So the guys in rounds 3-6 for example may get an opportunity to get more PA's throughout a season. Teams give PAs to those they want to move. Those lower need to make themselves get PAs but even then it has to be on a less frequent basis. There is an actual study I remember reading about the probability of making it to MLB based on Round drafted. Gotta go look for that now.

Two easy ways to know this is not true, 1) More people laugh at my humor than just myself & 2) I like Stanford Baseball and as such like Maverick Handley and don't forget he exists in the system. Obviously 2 is only if 1 isn't enough.

I've gotta head out and buy a power ball ticket or two...

.Total potential without any changes and 100% signing is 22 new players into our pipeline. Elias took 2 outfielders with his first two picks yesterday. We have 19 more picks to make Likely not to bury them all in Florida to start. So... who is in line to go? Based on the high level and $ spent... I think if I was an older outfielder at Bowie or below... I would not want to be getting called into the managers office. My thought for release? Zach Watson. 3rd Rd Pick in 2019. 26 years old and stuck for 3rd year in Bowie and numbers are not getting any better.

YEP.. Forgot he was on Roster. More chatter about Mayo lately got me spinning American League[edit] P: Clayton Beeter, Jonathan Cannon, Joey Cantillo, Shane Drohan, David Festa, Will Klein, Sem Robberse, Owen White, Yosver Zulueta Harry Ford, Edgar Quero, Tyler Soderstrom IF: Junior Caminero, Jackson Holliday, Colt Keith, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Kyle Manzardo, Marcelo Mayer, Kyren Paris, Nick Yorke OF: Lawrence Butler, Jonatan Clase, Drew Gilbert, Spencer Jones, Heston Kjerstad

TRADED? Date Transaction 07/07/23 Norfolk Tides placed OF Heston Kjerstad on the temporarily inactive list.

I agree, if the deadline was 3 days ago... I would leave Handley off. However, as your guy is Easton then I guess that makes my guy Maverick. I disagree that this year has been injury prone. He was hit by a 94 mph fastball on his left hand and was given a week for the swelling go down. I actually checked with my friends during the Stanford Super Regional and it sounds like his treatment may not have been appropriate... thereby causing a change resulting in a muscle strain while compensating for the hand injury. I would say being hit on the hands with pitches and foul balls into the mask causing concussion protocols, these injuries do not make a player 'prone' to injuries. With that being said, after a 2nd opinion and being shut down for a couple weeks, he seems to be doing well. Playing 4 games of 6 each week. In the 11 games since his return to AAA, 0.342/0.419/0.447 resulting in a OPS of 0.866

I never hope for injury, especially for teams I cheer for, but also for all athletes. With that being said... even Steve asked a question of Hyde today. So it seems like the whispers and questions are starting... I may try and look at the steals and see if I can time the throws. Do any of the stat cast sites share the POP and MPH of throw downs?

Here is a foolish question... Acknowledged at the beginning of the post. My wife just asked me if Adley was hurt because there are some fan groups on Facebook that show up in her feed arguing this topic (I don't do the Facebook thing). Some are saying they believe that Adley's arm is hurt and he is playing injured. Reading the write up on the All-Star game and Orioles history, it said the Weiters had an invite in 2014 but had Tommy Johns. That would have been around May 2014. He was drafted in 2007. Right around his 28th birthday. Adley is 3 years younger that Weiters. Does anyone think there is any validity to the thought that there may be more to Adley's tricep strain from 2022 and his inability to throw more runners out? Some are saying all the stolen bases are on the pitchers and not a product or fault of Adley. Being out on West coast... I don't get to watch most of the games and the non caught stealing don't make a lot of highlight clips.

Fun times behind home for the boys in orange and black. Quite Possibly the O's are preparing for Bemboom not to make it thru waivers after he is DFA'd soon not that he got his 'BemBloop' the other night and is surely to be highly coveted by other teams more desperate for catching depth than the O's. Kolozsvary was DFAd on June 14th and chose free agency on 16th and signed with Twins (St Paul Saints AAA) on 20th immediately going 0-4 and making Tides magic number 1 which they promptly secured the 1/2 half season for AAA. Rodriguez removed from IL on June 13th and moved to AAA on 20th to fill after Bemboom moved to MLB club Godoy gets assigned to Taxi squad and McCann goes down on 10 day IL. Gets selected on 18th and Optioned on 20th (Swapped for Bemboom) and clears outright waivers and reassigned (accepted) to Norfolk Tide on 26th And then O's do their best Romancing the Stone romp thru Colombia and sign their next AAA catcher Meibrys Viloria. 22 days with Angels org, 39 days with Cleveland org (4 PAs in MLB this year going 0-3 w/ BB, SF Giants in November of 2022, Texas in 2021, and KC before that. But I am sure the O's and Matt Blood's catcher development program can turn this one around.

Basallo is definately showing some consistency, power and speed. But what do you do with the 'other' catcher in Aberdeen. Willems has been warmer the past 2 weeks going 14-46 in 12 games (.304). Bringing his average up from .148 to .247 then the 'other' catch Ardoin during the same two week period went 6-46 (0.130) for the ENTIRE month of June in 16 games which included a 3-4 game on 6/10. Dropping his average to 0.178 (.578 OPS). Ardoin was supposed to be the Orioles next Handley with a better bat. He has caught 17-57 (30%) But Willems has also caught 8-27 (30%) in his time at A+ @Tony-OH you seem to have access to statistical breakdowns I don't (or won't payfor). What is Creed's hitting stats in his 21 games for Aberdeen while catching vs. DH + 1B (combined)? I believe he has been split pretty equally. Since Ardoin only caught 12 games in Delmarva in 2022 (.227 avg, .602 ops) is it time to move Ardoin down a level to work on the bat while Willems and Basallo work in Aberdeen?

Just in case people were wondering if Kolozsvary will be back. He signed and played today with Saint Paul Saints AAA (Twins) FYI (Tony Wolters who is the Twins equivalent to Bemboom was put on IL today). Change in location didn't change his results. 0-4, 3K, 0-1 on catching base stealers. Were up 4-1 into 8th and blew it in the bottom of 8 and 9 to lose 5-4. The loss by the Saints today make the magic number for Tides at 1. So if this was an elaborate plan by Elias to assure the Tides of a 1st half win and playoff spot... Good on him. (Please smell the sarcasm)

Handley by all accounts is a pretty smart guy. So I don't think he is 'wondering' but he could be frustrated... just like Cowser, Westbury, etc. However, it has long been learned that you never say anything negative about your existing club or last club. Those remarks can keep other teams from wanting that negativity in a "TEAM" first atmosphere. I would imagine that Handley knows, and has commented in interviews, that every day is a tryout. Not only for the O's but for every other team as he is Rule 5 eligible. He simply needs to hit more consistently as the defense is there. From an Orioles business perspective, Handley cannot choose MiLB free agency until after 2024. The O's don't have to do anything until this years Rule 5 if they want to keep him going into 2024. Or they can do nothing and see if he is left alone (again... every day is a tryout). The Norfolk Tides have been playing Handley 4 games a week when it is a normal week. So they are giving him the innings/ABs to develop. The challenge that I see it is he is on a team with 6 or more top 100 prospects so he is always at or near the bottom of the lineup. That is 4 or more less ABs a week than the top prospects. But... more money was paid to those prospects and money plays. Let's talk money... According to TIMESFREEPRESS.COM, "Triple- A Pay this year after the MiLB union agreement is: $1,200/wk in 2023. Pay for offseason offsite work will be $250 weekly in 2023." taking in Spring Training pay, etc. Roughly $36,000 a year and clubs pay for housing during season and spring training. SO HANDLEY IS CHEAP. Bemboom has a contract for when he is in the Majors and in AAA. I don't know the value but he is guaranteed above the $117,400 minimum (In most cases, a player's minor league "split" salary must be at least 50% of the player's salary (what the player was actually paid) from the previous season). Kolozsvary (FAIP - free agent in peace) had been and now Godoy should be earning at least that $117,400 minimum. So HANDLEY is earning 30% at best what the others are and they have control of him. IF the O's bump Handley up, MLB Reserve List for the first time is $58,800 in 2023, he will get a 53% raise back in Triple-A and roughly $4,200 a day while on the 26 man. But as others have said, if they need that 40 many spot and DFA Handley, he is likely more appealing than Godoy or Bemboom. So in summary, he likely isn't wondering (because I would imagine the coaches are spewing the org's love) but is frustrated. AND... if the Organization didn't believe in him he wouldn't be in AAA or even on a roster.

Bemboom has 3 games under his belt and already has the split contract. No doubt he is up and Godoy is third catcher to be DFA'd in a little over a month. Question is... is he the third to take his chances as a free agent. He seems to have bounced a lot over the past 12 months so me may actually stick with the Norfolk assignmet.

Bemboom went on IL for concussion protocol 2ish weeks ago. He did a couple rehab assignment games at Aberdeen and came back to Norfolk for the double header on Saturday

Handley was in AA for what I would take as a rehab assignment. He has been back in/on Norfolk since 6/12/23. Caught 4 games of the 6 games series

AAA - NORFOLK Bemboom: Down in Aberdeen on a Rehab assignment. Went 0-2 on Tuesday in A+. At AAA before IL (concussion protocol) he was .290 avg .786 ops. Throwing out runners at a 20% clip. 4-20. Has caught 149 innings, 1 PB Godoy: From NYY Dev Squad on 6/2/23. in 7 games he is 6-21. .286 avg .829 ops in 56 innings 8 runners have stolen with 0 CS 0% rate (easy math). 2 PB already. The offense is not making up for the defense. Starting to realize why relegated to the Developmental Squad at NYY. Handley: Back from IL in AAA this week. Has raised his AVG to .250 (.693 OPS) after is 0-5 (5Ks) on 4/13. Has caught 4-12 (33%) plus 2 CS at AA last week. only 2 PB in 188 innings. Not throwing the ball around like he did early. Kolozsvary: Gets the Frequent Flier Award. Demoted to AA before Handley got hurt. Since May 26th, he is 1-22 dropping his AAA avg to .162 with a .515 OPS. If anyone has seen him the past couple weeks he looks like trash in the batters box. He has thrown out 5-19 for a 26% CS in 161 innings. He was moved to Taxi Squad and then added to the 26 man then optioned 19 hours later to be DFAd 1 hour after that Not sure who stays and goes between Godoy and Kolozsvary. Offense or 'defense'. AA - BOWIE Rodriguez: Returned from IL stint in Delmarva after Handley returned to Norfolk. in 18 games/51ABs at AA he is hitting .255 with .710 OPS. In 137 innings 1 PB and 3-16 CS 19% Susnara: Brought in when Handley went on IL and Kolozsvary moved back to AAA. In 13 games/40AB hitting .150 with .494 OPS. Has caught 112 innings. 0-9 Caught Stealing. Susnara hadn't played in 2022 after being release in 2021. May take some time... but see traits of why he was released in 2021 Pavolony: Been on IL since April 6th. Before that hitting .111 (2-18) .222 OPS. Only light to see was 3-6 in CS 50% A+ ABERDEEN Ardoin: 42G/129AB so far. Hitting .202 w/ .633 OPS. In 286 innings, he has 2 PB and caught 16-53 base stealers. 30% Retzbach: Put on IL on 5/25. just put on rehab assignment at Delmarva (0-4 in 2 G so far). While in Aberdeen, 28G, 94AB, .213 avg .661 OPS 123 innings caught, 4 PB, 8-34 caught stealing. 24% Willems: Promoted to Aberdeen on May 30 after his .302/1.057 Delmarva display. In 13G, 40AB in Aberdeen just hitting .175 but 3 of 7 hits are HR. so POS of .720. SO rate is 2X hit rate. Has caught 6 of 22 runners in A+ in 59 innings. 27%. They have him catching about 1/2 the games he plays. Others are split between 1B and DH A- DELMARVA Basallo: 18 YO that was just added to BA100. 6'3" 180lb. If he grows,,, he may grow out of Catcher. In 2023, 207 AB in 53 games. Hitting .280 with .763 OPS Of his 53 games, he has caught 30, 17 @ 1B, 4 @ DH. While catching he is throwing out 33% as they test his arm plenty. 24-72 in 252 innings. 5 PB. From the videos on his throws, he has a strong arm but a quicker transfer would help and of course better accuracy doesn't hurt anyone. Others are filler

Wow! A lot can happen in a 34 days Following Handley's 0-5 with 5K performance on 5/13, and the 10k on 15ABs in the 4 games vs JAX that week dropping him to Mendoza's front door at 0.200, then there must have been a talking to. Went 4-9 with 2 Ks before going back on the IL May 19. Assigned to Bowie and went 4-15 with a HR in his first AB back. Also threw out both runners trying to steal. I watched some of those games and the announcers were saying the umpires were the 3 lowest scoring (accuracy) of all AA. The pitching was pretty wild. None the less... did enough to get back to Norfolk this week. Tuesday/Wednesday he has gone 3-7 with a 3B and I saw a 105 EV yesterday. He also called Zimmerman's complete game shut out on Tuesday and on Weds had somewhere around a 1.9 CS on Hamilton who has 26 SB.... had him by a few feet. Overall, AVG is up to .250, OBP .400 and SLG still just .289 without any HRs in AAA. Overall OPS is up to .689 and is throwing out 43% across AA/AAA. I really am fascinated that in 188 innings with the NEW RULES opponents have only attempted 12 SB attempts at AAA. Overall, I think he looks more patient, is looking to drive the outside pitches and leveling out his swing plane. If he can stay off the IL, maybe there is a sliver that he gets a chance. If not, if he passes thru Rule 5 again, there is only 1 more year before MiLB free agency for him. But that also matches up with McCann contract time frame...???

Actually agree with you here (or there?) on the DFA bait. Handley came back from his 1 week of Bowie Rehab, Rodriguez returned to Bowie from his Rehab. No where left to put Kolozsvary but the travel squad... and then fill a hole last minute. Last 7 games, Kolo is 1-22 dropping his average to 0.162. Likely will do another deep dive on the state of the MiLB catchers over on the Minors side later today.

What if we change the name on the back of his jersey from RUTSCHMAN to ADLEY... and then promote Maverick?... but put the name on the back of his jersey as hAnDLEY. Who's gonna know?

Yes, wild pitches go against the pitcher and passed balls go against the catcher. However... the determination is a judgment call on the scorer. Scorer's don't get to know what was to have been thrown or where to know if on a 'borderline' choice if the pitcher missed or if the catcher missed. Either way, these two scorings only happen when a runner is on base and is able to successfully advance a base. Do any of you (Moose or SG... or Frobby) have data that shows "Wild Pitches Saved"? You know, pitches that the catcher didn't have to block because they would have scored against the pitcher but the catcher made a baseball play to prevent that wild pitch and keep the runners from advancing? I have not found that as it would be an even further expansion of a judgment call.