7Mo

Exactly. Which means 2 things: you get what you can for him, and so far, that hasn't worked but still might by 1:00 Monday............and............if you can't trade him, you don't bring him back.

Maybe every bit of your post is accurate. But I can't be sure of it. You know how some agents are...just intent on getting the most for their client. And I think your idea of "when some team loses their guy" is a good one because chances are high it'll happen to someone. Just my opinion but I think the projected arb figure killed everything. Look at it this way. If Villar wasn't with the O's last year, would we pay him $10.4 for this year?

Good post......but....don't you think they've talked to Villar's agent often to see what he'd agree to? I'd bet Elias is operating with a LOT more information than we are.

Chris Davis probably knows.

Nice post. Thanks. But the simple answer to me is I just can't believe Elias is turning down any reasonable offer. Your last line mentions "collusion". Not sure I agree with that but I think it's fair to say teams are looking at his projected value, not what he's done in the past.

No. Because it's an outright waiver, it would be 48 hours. But because of the holiday, it's extended to Monday at 1:00. If no one claims, the O's then have until 8:00 Monday to reach agreement.

Let me just twist your idea a bit. I'd love to keep Villar but not at $10.4M. I think the market has spoken about that. If he couldn't be traded last July, and can't now.....so far...I don't think it's a good gamble to believe he could be next July at $10.4M. He's not a long term asset, and at $10.4, he doesn't have trade value.

A factor would be do we use an opener on a regular basis? I tend to think there'll be 3 pitchers on the opening day roster (believing Bundy is traded) that aren't with the O's today and 1 or 2 will start/open until Akin is up.

Thanks. Great stuff.

Thoughts on: Cristian Santana, 2B/3B, LAD Brandon Bailey and Carlos Sanabria, Astros. From previous posts, Bailey's a no upside guy? Blah stuff? Griffin Jax? Zack Brown seems to be a safe choice, yes?

I don't guess there's any way of knowing if Elias is looking for near term help or long term upside, is there? Position player or pitcher? Starting or reliever? What keeps Sterling Sharp from being valued higher? Did Trevor Lane or Kyle Holder make your list? (both NYY)

Thanks. I wasn't trying to rush you. From previous posts, I knew you were doing a comprehensive search which would take quite a while.

Do you have an idea when we could expect your Rule 5 posts?

He did improve the second half of the season. If you mean keep him long term, he's gonna age out of the performance target.

If you're looking for big signings or improvements to the MLB roster this year, you're not gonna be impressed. And that's consistent with what's been said from the time of his hiring.

The organizational changes. https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/orioles-rebuilding-under-mike-elias

My guess is Bundy is traded by Monday afternoon. I think everyone else stays for the time being.

Well if we're comparing apples to apples, the 2019 Fangraphs prospect list shows 9 Orioles at FV 45 or above.

We might get to test that. If he's not claimed by 1:00 Monday, the O's have the right to negotiate with him til 8:00 Monday to sign him at whatever figure could be agreed to. Surely he wouldn't ask for $10M after every team in baseball passed on claiming him at the arb figure.

I agree with that. But that doesn't tell me if he passed up a good deal or not.

So based on general comments in a Roch article that said there were discussions, that did not give details, that don't tell us if it required giving up international money or take back a bad contract, you're comfortable saying Elias is incompetent, a buffoon and "more of an idiot than you thought" because he didn't take whatever was offered at the deadline. Correct?

Ok, what was he offered? The clearest language I've been able to find is "they engaged with the Cubs".

I get that. It's fair to argue if it's good business for the O's to say no at $10.4M to keep Villar. But I don't think it's reasonable to say a guy is incompetent, a buffoon, an idiot, etc because he didn't trade him when we have no idea what offers, if any, were made.

Why wouldn't he take value? Is it more believable that Elias turned down value? Or that he wasn't offered value?

Frobby absolutely knows his MASN details.